Are we treadmilling?

[golden]

I am late in responding and missed most of this conversation. S.R. basically covered it, but I'll add a little more.

First, their 53 win season included a roster of Williams, Boozer, and Okur. Yes, they picked Hayward with the Knicks pick. But Carlos Boozer chose to leave for Chicago on a 5-year $80mm deal.

The following season, after DWill's halftime argument with Sloan, Sloan chose to abruptly quit. This led to the trade 2 weeks later of DWill, which was designed to cash in win-now chips for young pieces (Favors + 2 picks + Harris). This was made because Greg Miller did not feel DWill would re-sign:



This is a classic tank-style rebuilding move. Favors and the 2 picks (one of whom was Kanter, later traded for Tibor Pleiss) are young assets swapped in for an older win-now player.

Dennis Lindsey was hired in 2012 and here is a sample of his philosophy:





After 2012-13, Utah purposely let Millsap and AlJeff go. I used to read the Jazz forums and fans were upset they didn't trade them when they were expirings, but it was believed that ownership wanted to squeeze out one round of playoff revenue, plus there was some concern about having to take on salary.

This led to the first year of their current tank. 6 of their top 7 players in minutes were under 23, and led to the drafting of Dante Exum.

They knew they didn't want to pay Enes Kanter max money, so he was shipped out; this brought in Pleiss and kept them from having to pay big RFA $$ to someone they weren't sure about--same reason Bucks dealt Brandon Knight.

Utah isn't a classic example of scorched-earth tanking like Philly, but they have definitely been pro-active about sticking to youth-oriented rebuilding. Last year they were the second-youngest team in the league weighed by playing time.

Nice summary on Utah, Scraptor. But the bold is where I think we're disagreeing slightly, but it could be just semantics. I think there's a huge difference between pro-actively jettisoning your all-star players to become a losing team because you think the team's championship ceiling is limited vs. trading them in their last contract year because you fear you will lose them for nothing. The first is pro-active, the second is reactive (damage control).

The second scenario, which happened to Utah, was forced upon them as I believe their first preference was to re-sign D-Will, if the feeling was mutual - but it wasn't. That's a not a classic tank, IMO, and would have kept them in treadmill mode as we saw how quickly D-Will deteriorated. Here's an old article that describes the Utah mindset at the time....

http://www.webcitation.org/5wkXpJLWJ

In the end, Greg Miller said Wednesday, he went with his gut.
The owner of the Utah Jazz said in a telephone interview that he decided to OK the trade of All-Star guard Deron Williams to the New Jersey Nets because of his increasing belief that the Jazz could be caught empty-handed in the summer of 2012 if Williams decided not to re-sign in Utah, as other teams have found themselves in the past year.
“The concern that we as a franchise have had all along is if you look at what happened with LeBron James in Cleveland, and Amar’e Stoudemire in Phoenix, and Chris Bosh in Toronto, there seems to be a trend developing where those marquee players get away,” Miller said. “In the case of those three teams there was very little at the end to show for it. I was very concerned that the same thing would happen to us if Deron left.”

[Snooch]

Yes we are, if things remain the same.

I hope that Ujiri Knows this and that is why certain moves have been made.

I am pinning my hopes that in regards to Demar and Lowry, the deals just werent there and he hopes that in the season they improve.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I think tanking has always been around in sports, but has only gained recognition more recently because of savvy GM's who realized how effective it could potentially be in [re]building a team.

Back in the day, in each of the 4 major sports, every team set out trying to make the playoffs.

Then, as teams were eliminated from contention (or were well on their way there, as trade deadlines approached), they would look to trade old/expensive players for young players, prospects and draft picks (present for future), with teams that were gearing up for a deep playoff run. This has always been prevalent in both the NHL and MLB.

All eliminated teams, whether they were active sellers at the trade deadline or not, would typically start giving their younger players and minor league prospects much more playing time, in the name of player development. Not only would it give those young players good experience and an opportunity to improve, it would give management a chance to evaluate them. MLB's expanded rosters for 'September callups' is essentially a league-sanctioned tank function.

The only difference between back in the day and today, is that many GM's have started the process earlier in the season, or even before the season started. Basically, they realized that their team didn't have a legitimate chance at even making the playoffs, so they shifted their priorities from the outset. When you combine the opportunity for developing young players with adding good young assets (by trading vets) and creating cap room (by trading expensive/long-term contracts in sports with salary caps), in addition to improving the team's standing in the draft, it really is a no-brainer.

Even though the end result is the same, I think what turns some people off is that "tanking" goes against the competitive spirit of sports. When an awful team gives a valiant effort and is eliminated halfway through the season, a half-season tank job is completely acceptable. However, when the awful team knows they're an awful team, and gets proactive with their tank job, suddenly the strategy is horrible.

The debate really comes down to one of sportsmanship VS shrewd team management. Plus, there's something to be said about hope; any one of those awful teams could become a Cinderella story... unless they pull the plug before they even tried. I get the arguments on both sides.

[Scraptor]

Nice summary on Utah, Scraptor. But the bold is where I think we're disagreeing slightly, but it could be just semantics. I think there's a huge difference between pro-actively jettisoning your all-star players to become a losing team because you think the team's championship ceiling is limited vs. trading them in their last contract year because you fear you will lose them for nothing. The first is pro-active, the second is reactive (damage control).

The second scenario, which happened to Utah, was forced upon them as I believe their first preference was to re-sign D-Will, if the feeling was mutual - but it wasn't. That's a not a classic tank, IMO, and would have kept them in treadmill mode as we saw how quickly D-Will deteriorated. Here's an old article that describes the Utah mindset at the time....

http://www.webcitation.org/5wkXpJLWJ

That's a good distinction. But ultimately what happened with DWill started a process that would have eventually started a few years later; instead of committing to the treadmill they had to go into salvage mode.

I supported BC for a long time because I was in the "tanking is for losers" camp. But what I came to realize over several years is that the nature of the CBA and the competitive structure of the league really make it difficult to win from the middle. This is how most treadmills end; you do it for as long as it takes for you to understand that it just isn't working.

Unfortunately for BC, the departure of Bosh forced his hand; he never fully believed in rebuilding as a concept, he never came to that realization. Which is why he accelerated instead of having the patience to stick with it.

The middle is safe and cozy. There's always just enough hope and just enough success to keep your job and hope for better results next year.

[Mess]

The Raptors have the same record today, 0-0, as they did when this thread was created 7 days ago. We are definitely treadmilling.


I will update again once we have their summer league results and can compare them to the past few summer leagues.

[Katman]

I'm very excited, we are tied with other teams ... leading the league

[Mess]

The Raptors have the same record today, 0-0, as they did when this thread was created 7 days ago. We are definitely treadmilling.


I will update again once we have their summer league results and can compare them to the past few summer leagues.

So the Raptors started out their summer league season on a tear with the fans going wild and then, due to injuries & increased competition, ended the season with a whimper. Just like the regular season.



That's undeniable proof of treadmilling right there.

[Bendit]

Is it time to trot out the treadmill thread again?

Have we seen enough to realize that the Raptors have hit their ceiling with a big thud?

There certainly seems to be that sentiment on the board this morning.

As we all know there are some important decisions Masai has to make soon....all after answering the overriding questions...how to avoid being a treadmill team, is the current core good enough and how best to achieve moving to the next level?

The tools/decisions he will have to use and depend upon will be:

1) Retaining and signing certain players
2) Signing Free agents
3) Who to draft (trading up or down or the pick/s itself)
4) Creating a new core
5) Taking a step back before advancing or go full speed ahead

I may have missed some other considerations but you get the picture.

And I shall mention the dreaded "Rebuild" here. If one believes we have a real danger of becoming a treadmill team is considering a rebuild that bad an option? This of course need not be an absolute teardown but the fundamental questions of our starting point guard and starting guard inconsistent play and lack of a solid starting power forward are among the more pressing questions Masai has to decide on.

I dread the treadmill syndrome. After the achievements of this season nothing would be more depressing that believe deep down starting next season not believing the team is moving in an upward trajectory even if not immediately.

[Nilanka]

My personal definition of a contender was a team who could reach the conference finals. Because once there, all it takes are a few lucky bouces/breaks to turn a series.

^ The problem with this definition is that I assumed that the final 4 teams would be evenly matched. Although we've made it this far, it's clear to anyone paying attention that the Raptors are no threat to reach the finals without a significant upgrade in talent.

And with DeRozan's max contract looming over our heads, I can't see a realistic scenario where talent infusion is possible.

[Barolt]

I have a hard time arguing that we are treadmilling in the year that we set franchise records for both wins and playoff progression. But you could certainly argue that where we go from here could put us on a treadmill. The biggest decisions are obviously what we do with Kyle and DeMar.

[Nilanka]

I have a hard time arguing that we are treadmilling in the year that we set franchise records for both wins and playoff progression. But you could certainly argue that where we go from here could put us on a treadmill. The biggest decisions are obviously what we do with Kyle and DeMar.

I honestly dont think there's a decision to be made. Masai will continue to build around these guys.

Our only hope is that DeRozan has a change of heart, and is blown away by LA's sales pitch.

[Axel]

Hard to see the ceiling of this group being higher than it currently is without some kind of change.

DD or Casey would be the easiest decision due to contract status. If both are back, then yeah, I'd put us on the treadmill path; competing but no real path to improve except hope in drastic improvement from a low draft pick (Bruno).

Masai has been patient but he has been clear that we are to compete and not treadmill. If he continues to be patient without a big move, he will find himself in no mans land and would be deserving of the inevitable job pressure. This is the offseason for him to make a move one way or another.

[rightsideup]

Its interesting that a perennial high achieving team like Like Utah in the early Stockton Malone Days and other teams that have had such tremendous non playoffs successes did not achieve very well despite two of the greatest players at there positions. When they did make the finals there reward was an incredibly dominate bulls teams. They have a very good fan-base I believe in a fairly small market.

[Nilanka]

Hard to see the ceiling of this group being higher than it currently is without some kind of change.

DD or Casey would be the easiest decision due to contract status. If both are back, then yeah, I'd put us on the treadmill path; competing but no real path to improve except hope in drastic improvement from a low draft pick (Bruno).

Masai has been patient but he has been clear that we are to compete and not treadmill. If he continues to be patient without a big move, he will find himself in no mans land and would be deserving of the inevitable job pressure. This is the offseason for him to make a move one way or another.

The concern for us is that Masai's never actually defined what he believes a treadmill to be.

For all we know, winning 50+ games with a ECF berth could exceed his definition of a treadmill team (under normal circumstances, he'd be right).

And if he does view this roster that way, then would he be motivated to remove a core piece like DeRozan or Casey?

[KHD]

Hard to see the ceiling of this group being higher than it currently is without some kind of change.

DD or Casey would be the easiest decision due to contract status. If both are back, then yeah, I'd put us on the treadmill path; competing but no real path to improve except hope in drastic improvement from a low draft pick (Bruno).

Masai has been patient but he has been clear that we are to compete and not treadmill. If he continues to be patient without a big move, he will find himself in no mans land and would be deserving of the inevitable job pressure. This is the offseason for him to make a move one way or another.

this is the big indicator.

if the plan is to bring them both back and rely on "internal growth", well, good luck.

The concern for us is that Masai's never actually defined what he believes a treadmill to be.

For all we know, winning 50+ games with a ECF berth could exceed his definition of a treadmill team (under normal circumstances, he'd be right). And if he does view this roster that way, then would he be motivated to remove a core piece like DeRozan or Casey?

well, he has said multiple times the goal is championships. consistently getting exposed in the playoffs at round 1, 2, or even 3, is still treadmilling at that point.