Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Raptors win Eastern Conference in 2015-2016

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Raptors win Eastern Conference in 2015-2016

    Sports Illustrated has calculated that the Raptors will win the East next year, with 52.9 (+/- 2.74) wins.

    "So with the majority of NBA contracts for the upcoming year signed, sealed and delivered, let’s try to predict how the standings will shake out.

    This exercise will be guided by Win Shares, a statistic that aims to quantify how many wins each player contributes to his team in a given season. A team’s collective Win Shares doesn’t always exactly add up to its actual win total, but it’s usually quite close—since the 1962-63 season, the average margin of error is 2.74 wins.

    In this case, what I’ve done is relatively simple: for every player who changed teams at some point during the 2014-15 season or during this off-season, I’ve transferred the amount of Win Shares each player earned last season to their current team.

    Of course, a player’s 2014-15 Win Shares is somewhat reliant upon the quality of the teams he played for. And from season to season, the statistic can be affected by a number of factors—how a player fits into their team's offensive and defensive systems, any change in minutes per game, young players getting better and old players getting worse, etc.

    To project how many Win Shares each first-round pick will produce next season, I calculated the mean amount that rookies from around their draft slot have accounted for over the last five years.

    I also projected how superstars returning from injuries (Kevin Durant, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony) could affect the playoff race by extrapolating their Win Shares in the limited time they played last year to a “healthy” season.

    Without further ado, here are the projected 2015-16 standings:"

    1. Toronto Raptors 52.9
    2. Cleveland Cavaliers 51.4
    3. Chicago Bulls 51.2
    4. Atlanta Hawks 50.8
    5. Boston Celtics 47.4
    6. Washington Wizards 44.3
    7. Charlotte Hornets 41.6
    8. Miami Heat 41.4
    9. Milwaukee Bucks 40.0
    10. Detroit Pistons 39.9
    11. Indiana Pacers 39.0
    12. Orlando Magic 31.6
    13. Brooklyn Nets 29.7
    14. New York Knicks 28.0
    15. Philadelphia 76ers 23.2

    1. Golden State Warriors 63.0
    2. Los Angeles Clippers 61.9
    3. Oklahoma City Thunder 60.0
    4. San Antonio Spurs 57.5
    5. Memphis Grizzlies 56.6
    6. Houston Rockets 53.2
    7. New Orleans Pelicans 45.7
    8. Phoenix Suns 41.3
    9. Dallas Mavericks 41.2
    10. Utah Jazz 41.2
    11. Portland Trail Blazers 38.6
    12. Sacramento Kings 33.5
    13. Los Angeles Lakers 29.9
    14. Denver Nuggets 29.6
    15. Minnesota Timberwolves 23.5

    Toronto Raptors
    2014-15 record (win shares): 49-33 (50.6)
    Key players gained: DeMarre Carroll (7.0), Luis Scola (4.4), Cory Joseph (4.5)
    Key players lost: Amir Johnson (5.1), Lou Williams (6.6), Greivis Vasquez (2.8)
    Projected 2015-16 win shares (record): 52.9 (53-29)

    After the Raptors were unceremoniously swept out of the playoffs by the Wizards, people around the league questioned whether GM Masai Ujiri would blow up the team during the off-season.

    Instead, he made a series of shrewd moves, making Carroll an offer he couldn’t refuse while reconfiguring the team’s bench. Toronto has not yet won 50 games in a season, but that is now a reasonable expectation for the team to have going into the season.

    One factor that could derail the Raptors? Injuries. Toronto was relatively lucky in that regard last season, as DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry’s combined 32 games missed were really the only injuries of note. If center Jonas Valanciunas (team-leading 8.2 win shares in 2014-15) has to sit for a prolonged amount of time, the Raptors could just as easily tumble into the bottom half of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

    http://www.si.com/nba/2015/07/16/nba...zers-mavericks
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

  • #2
    lolnope

    Comment


    • #3
      Ha! Not a chance. But nice to see!

      Even nicer to see?

      27. New York Knicks 28.0
      28. Denver Nuggets 29.6
      29. Minnesota Timberwolves 23.5
      30. Philadelphia 76ers 23.2
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

      Comment


      • #4
        hahaha

        Yeah sure....

        As long as we maintain iso heavy in iour offense with Demar being the main catalyst we may see regualr season success but we will remain a one and done.

        And Lowry will get injured this season, it is bound to happen, and even though he played WAY over his head the last 2 years, he will luckily be replaced by Cujo.

        Comment


        • #5
          DanH wrote: View Post
          Ha! Not a chance. But nice to see!

          Even nicer to see?

          27. New York Knicks 28.0
          28. Denver Nuggets 29.6
          29. Minnesota Timberwolves 23.5
          30. Philadelphia 76ers 23.2
          New York isnt finishing that low either, they will be 8-10 seed in the east.

          Comment


          • #6
            I've been working on a similar projection using RPM. Will be posting soon.
            twitter.com/dhackett1565

            Comment


            • #7
              DanH wrote: View Post
              Ha! Not a chance. But nice to see!

              Even nicer to see?

              27. New York Knicks 28.0
              28. Denver Nuggets 29.6
              29. Minnesota Timberwolves 23.5
              30. Philadelphia 76ers 23.2
              With a 2.74 win margin of error since 1962.

              2.74 win margin likely bumps Raps to 3rd (Cleveland up, then either Chicago or Atlanta jumps us).

              2.74 win margin still keeps NYK as a top 6 pick.
              Heir, Prince of Cambridge

              If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

              Comment


              • #8
                Snooch wrote: View Post
                hahaha

                Yeah sure....

                As long as we maintain iso heavy in iour offense with Demar being the main catalyst we may see regualr season success but we will remain a one and done.

                And Lowry will get injured this season, it is bound to happen, and even though he played WAY over his head the last 2 years, he will luckily be replaced by Cujo.
                The next time you post "Demar" in a non-Demar thread, I'm banning you for 24 hours.
                Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Axel wrote: View Post
                  With a 2.74 win margin of error since 1962.

                  2.74 win margin likely bumps Raps to 3rd (Cleveland up, then either Chicago or Atlanta jumps us).

                  2.74 win margin still keeps NYK as a top 6 pick.
                  Are they taking into account Melo's injury? Melo's WS total was affected by that was it not?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Mindlessness wrote: View Post
                    Are they taking into account Melo's injury? Melo's WS total was affected by that was it not?
                    Axel wrote: View Post
                    FROM SI
                    "I also projected how superstars returning from injuries (Kevin Durant, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony) could affect the playoff race by extrapolating their Win Shares in the limited time they played last year to a “healthy” season."
                    Yup
                    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Axel wrote: View Post
                      The next time you post "Demar" in a non-Demar thread, I'm banning you for 24 hours.
                      Seriously, and i thought I talked about DD too much.

                      I could see the Raps winning 52, but I don't think that's enough to win the east. Cleveland wins close to 60 next year imo.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I'm not sure what gets me more giddy...

                        Projections showing Raps finishing 1st in east or Knicks finishing 4th last OVERALL.



                        At this point regular season means jack.

                        I said last year, in preseason and very early, the year was a failure without a playoff series win. They couldn't even must A win.

                        Same goes this year....no playoffs series win, wasted season.

                        If they can get some on and off ball movement while returning to a top 10 D.....that will be tough to stop.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          JWash wrote: View Post
                          I could see the Raps winning 52, but I don't think that's enough to win the east. Cleveland wins close to 60 next year imo.
                          I was surprised to see the Top in East at just 52 as well. But hey, it's just a mathematical exercise.
                          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Snooch wrote: View Post
                            New York isnt finishing that low either, they will be 8-10 seed in the east.
                            I'd bet they are 11th or worse in the East.
                            twitter.com/dhackett1565

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
                              I'm not sure what gets me more giddy...

                              Projections showing Raps finishing 1st in east or Knicks finishing 4th last OVERALL.



                              At this point regular season means jack.

                              I said last year, in preseason and very early, the year was a failure without a playoff series win. They couldn't even must A win.

                              Same goes this year....no playoffs series win, wasted season.

                              If they can get some on and off ball movement
                              while returning to a top 10 D.....that will be tough to stop.
                              You're being awfully optimistic I think.
                              OG is our king

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X