Looking Ahead: 2016 Free Agency

[DanH]

So if we resume, the plan is to re-sign DeMar.

Yep. Ever since the Ross extension.

[charlesnba23]

Then after, what are the options?

[Jrice9]

We only have 15M cap room to start with, all of which disappears just with DD's cap hold there. So Ross/Patterson traded for nothing (which is really hard to do) means only 16M in cap room with DD's hold there. For a max level guy like Horford you need 25M, so you probably have to dump CoJo and a couple prospects like Wright and BeBe to clear enough cap room (again with nothing coming back).

Two parts of this:

This might just be with me but I had us at aproximately

DeMarre 14.2+ DeMar 15 + JV 14.382 + Kyle at 12 + CoJo 7.3 at 62.822

Assuming you brought back Bebe, Delon, Bruno and Powell, that's another 5.7 million.

That's a total of about 68.5 million.

Now I did forget about our 2 first rounders which I don't know the cost of off hand but its about 3.5 I assume so that gets you to 71 million. Now some of these prospect pieces might be traded or be needed to be part of a Ross dumping.

I was also considering Horford as a sub max guy (at about 20 million) based on his desire to win and due to the fact that he would be 30 years old hitting free agency. I thought for the right team he would accept a 18-20 million dollar first year with raises. Maybe I'm wrong about that gamble.

EDIT: If you want the cheaper version of this plan. You go after someone like Pau Gasol, Ryan Anderson, Chandler Parsons types.

EDIT #2: Of course when trading Ross and Patterson for cap space and using all that cap space on one guy, you are giving up huge amounts of depth as you can see the roster becomes essentially 6 guys deep.

[DanH]

I definitely don't shed that many players to go after Pau Gasol or Ryan Anderson. Yuck.

And Horford is at least as worthy of the max as DeMar is. He's getting paid and will probably laugh you off the phone if you offer less than 20M.

[DanH]

Then after, what are the options?

Once you are operating over the cap, you have to pursue improvements via trade. I'd expect a move made for a PF upgrade either at the deadline this year or at the draft, consolidating a few of our picks and prospects into an established talent (though how established is a good question, ideally someone in their mid-twenties, not late twenties or thirties).

[Jrice9]

I definitely don't shed that many players to go after Pau Gasol or Ryan Anderson. Yuck.

And Horford is at least as worthy of the max as DeMar is. He's getting paid and will probably laugh you off the phone if you offer less than 20M.

Horford is going to get a 4 year max at the age of 30?

I'm even assuming your talking about the lower max rather than the super max I think hes eligible for.

I'm a bit skeptical that he's worth that.

[DanH]

Horford is going to get a 4 year max at the age of 30?

I'm even assuming your talking about the lower max rather than the super max I think hes eligible for.

I'm a bit skeptical that he's worth that.

Horford is eligible for the same thing that DeMar is eligible for and he's going to get it (or thereabouts).

It doesn't matter what he's worth. There is an ocean of cap space out there this summer and very few free agents to soak it up. The bidding wars will be silly (except that the GM's already know this and the first offer will be the max).

[JWash]

Horford is eligible for the same thing that DeMar is eligible for and he's going to get it (or thereabouts).

It doesn't matter what he's worth. There is an ocean of cap space out there this summer and very few free agents to soak it up. The bidding wars will be silly (except that the GM's already know this and the first offer will be the max).

I expect Batum to also get pretty damn close to a max as well.

[DanH]

I expect Batum to also get pretty damn close to a max as well.

Yeah, before his resurgence this year (and before the Ross extension) I was hoping that if DD walked, we could grab Batum for 16M or so, re-sign Ross, then hit 2017 FA with the ability to add a big name. But even if the Ross extension didn't happen that would be out the window with Batum's really good play this year.

[Scraptor]

Two parts of this:

This might just be with me but I had us at aproximately

DeMarre 14.2+ DeMar 15 + JV 14.382 + Kyle at 12 + CoJo 7.3 at 62.822

Assuming you brought back Bebe, Delon, Bruno and Powell, that's another 5.7 million.

That's a total of about 68.5 million.

Now I did forget about our 2 first rounders which I don't know the cost of off hand but its about 3.5 I assume so that gets you to 71 million. Now some of these prospect pieces might be traded or be needed to be part of a Ross dumping.

I was also considering Horford as a sub max guy (at about 20 million) based on his desire to win and due to the fact that he would be 30 years old hitting free agency. I thought for the right team he would accept a 18-20 million dollar first year with raises. Maybe I'm wrong about that gamble.

EDIT: If you want the cheaper version of this plan. You go after someone like Pau Gasol, Ryan Anderson, Chandler Parsons types.

EDIT #2: Of course when trading Ross and Patterson for cap space and using all that cap space on one guy, you are giving up huge amounts of depth as you can see the roster becomes essentially 6 guys deep.

Don't forget the pieces don't necessarily have to be traded into capspace. We can do a sign-and-trade if Atlanta or another team is willing. Which is presumably when we'd use our picks as sweeteners.

Pretty easy to fill in the blanks around a Kyle-DeMar-Horford-JV core. Still don't have that number one option but this may be as close to a Detroit-style strong starting five as we can get.

[DanH]

Yeah, a sign and trade with ATL would work, but I'm pretty sure ATL's plan is to keep Horford long term, and maybe they aren't too interested in helping him go to a conference rival.

[Nilanka]

Yeah, a sign and trade with ATL would work, but I'm pretty sure ATL's plan is to keep Horford long term, and maybe they aren't too interested in helping him go to a conference rival.

Just thinking outloud here, but are "conference rivals" really a thing? Do GMs consider half the league as off-limits when it comes to trades? Especially in a situation like the Raps and Hawks, who have no rivalry (at least based on playoff match ups) at all?

[DanH]

Just thinking outloud here, but are "conference rivals" really a thing? Do GMs consider half the league as off-limits when it comes to trades? Especially in a situation like the Raps and Hawks, who have no rivalry (at least based on playoff match ups) at all?

I think teams that have their sights set on the top of the standings in their conference are wary of trading with teams in the top half of the playoff bracket in their conference. I doubt they would hesitate to trade with New York or BKN.

[LJ2]

Would a team looking for draft picks make for a more likely trade partner? Our picks seems to be the one asset everyone agrees on is most likely to be shopped.

[mcHAPPY]

This is what toronto is up against in free agency - they are not one of the big boys....and that would assume DD leaves and all free agents rescinded:

Team 2016-17 Max Space
Los Angeles Lakers $23,126,154 $66,873,846
Philadelphia 76ers $24,518,361 $65,481,639
Dallas Mavericks $28,212,230 $61,787,770
Boston Celtics $33,971,629 $56,028,371
Washington Wizards $36,858,521 $53,141,479
Detroit Pistons $42,425,365 $47,574,635
Portland Trail Blazers $44,468,987 $45,531,013
Brooklyn Nets $45,379,214 $44,620,786
Houston Rockets $45,598,308 $44,401,692
Charlotte Hornets $45,908,700 $44,091,300
Memphis Grizzlies $47,493,858 $42,506,142
Miami Heat $48,008,675 $41,991,325
Atlanta Hawks $52,717,353 $37,282,647
Denver Nuggets $54,613,156 $35,386,844
New York Knicks $55,366,567 $34,633,433
Utah Jazz $56,560,760 $33,439,240
Indiana Pacers $57,230,006 $32,769,994
Phoenix Suns $59,191,480 $30,808,520
Milwaukee Bucks $59,711,631 $30,288,369
Minnesota Timberwolves $60,264,642 $29,735,358
Sacramento Kings $60,424,376 $29,575,624
Orlando Magic $60,534,811 $29,465,189
New Orleans Pelicans $63,851,448 $26,148,552
Chicago Bulls $64,750,458 $25,249,542
Oklahoma City Thunder $65,906,301 $24,093,699
Toronto Raptors $69,909,899 $20,090,101
San Antonio Spurs $70,429,409 $19,570,591
Golden State Warriors $74,751,658 $15,248,342
Los Angeles Clippers $76,290,361 $13,709,639
Cleveland Cavaliers $76,641,961 $13,358,039