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Article: Ujiri Resting Heavily On Maintaining The Status Quo

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  • People keep mentioning the prospects for the future and the value of the pick coming from NY or Denver.

    Here's a list of players drafted 8th starting 2014 and for the 11 years following.
    Nik Stauskas
    Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
    Terence Ross
    Brandon Knight
    Al-Faroouq Aminu
    Jordan Hill
    Joe Alexander
    Brandan Wright
    Rudy Gay
    Channing Frye
    Rafael Araujo

    Rudy is probably the best of the bunch, and that didn't work out so well. I don't see any super stars in the list.

    This site has the list of all the previous drafts, you can select a list of all the players picked 1st, 2nd, 6th etc. Their mock draft has TO picking 10th and grabbing Damian Jones PF/C.

    Just wanted to point out that a lot of people are putting big expectations on that draft pick. It is not likely to be a world beater.

    Comment


    • Puffer wrote: View Post
      People keep mentioning the prospects for the future and the value of the pick coming from NY or Denver.

      Here's a list of players drafted 8th starting 2014 and for the 11 years following.
      Nik Stauskas
      Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
      Terence Ross
      Brandon Knight
      Al-Faroouq Aminu
      Jordan Hill
      Joe Alexander
      Brandan Wright
      Rudy Gay
      Channing Frye
      Rafael Araujo

      Rudy is probably the best of the bunch, and that didn't work out so well. I don't see any super stars in the list.

      This site has the list of all the previous drafts, you can select a list of all the players picked 1st, 2nd, 6th etc. Their mock draft has TO picking 10th and grabbing Damian Jones PF/C.

      Just wanted to point out that a lot of people are putting big expectations on that draft pick. It is not likely to be a world beater.
      Is there a particular reason you chose 8th to highlight?

      Some of those guys were definitely reaches (at the time of the draft) and some are too early to really judge. One is Araujo lol
      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

      Comment


      • SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
        We have continuous improvement up until last year, where he still managed to close the season very strong. I think we're quite likely to see a higher percentage of shots from behind the arc, at a higher percentage, as we did the season before last, and even moreso.
        Close the season strong?

        April: 7 games, 2.33pta, 31.3%
        March: 15 Games, 1.53pta, 45.5%
        Feb: 11 games, 1.53pta, 12.5%
        Jan: 11 games, 1.63pta, 22.2%

        Average of 1.73 attemps per game at 27.88%


        Demars career average is 27%....so 4 months at 28% and 6 years at 28% is more likely the norm as opposed to 1.5 months at 38.4%....which is a full 10% points above his career average.

        edit to add...

        Over the last 7 games of the season Demars averages:
        Assist % 23.6
        Rebound % 6.1
        Usage: 30
        Total Shot % - 58

        Over the last 4 months Demars averages were:
        Assist % 19.3
        Rebound % 7.4
        Usage %28.5
        TS% 51.5

        His averages for 2014-2015:
        Net rating -5
        Assist % 17
        Rebound % 7.6
        Usage % 28.6
        TS% 51

        His averages for 2013-2014best season ever for him)
        Net rating -3
        Assist % 18.9
        Rebound % 6.6
        Usage % 28
        TS% 53

        His career averages are:
        Net rating -4
        Assist % 12.5
        Rebound % 6.7
        Usage % 25
        TS% 52

        What happens when we average everything out?(last 4 months, all of 2014-15 and all of 2013-14)
        Net Rating: -4
        Assist % 16.1
        Rebound % 6.9
        Usage % 27.2
        TS% 52

        The only areas in which there is any difference is in usage rate(gone up ALOT) and assist%( which has gone up) You could argue that having the ball alot more times certainly creates the opportunity to be able to pass more often.
        Last edited by Snooch; Tue Sep 1, 2015, 09:53 AM.

        Comment


        • Axel wrote: View Post
          Is there a particular reason you chose 8th to highlight?

          Some of those guys were definitely reaches (at the time of the draft) and some are too early to really judge. One is Araujo lol
          Originally I recalled that Ross was drafted 8th so I checked that list. Then I noticed that 3 of the 11 had played on the Raptors so it seemed a good choice. I mena no one is going to think any of the 3 with Raptors experience are going to be big game changers.

          Comment


          • Puffer wrote: View Post
            People keep mentioning the prospects for the future and the value of the pick coming from NY or Denver.

            Here's a list of players drafted 8th starting 2014 and for the 11 years following.
            Nik Stauskas
            Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
            Terence Ross
            Brandon Knight
            Al-Faroouq Aminu
            Jordan Hill
            Joe Alexander
            Brandan Wright
            Rudy Gay
            Channing Frye
            Rafael Araujo

            Rudy is probably the best of the bunch, and that didn't work out so well. I don't see any super stars in the list.

            This site has the list of all the previous drafts, you can select a list of all the players picked 1st, 2nd, 6th etc. Their mock draft has TO picking 10th and grabbing Damian Jones PF/C.

            Just wanted to point out that a lot of people are putting big expectations on that draft pick. It is not likely to be a world beater.
            So whenever you have the 8th pick in the draft, you need to trade down one slot to 9th. The 9th slot is money. All-stars & max players galore and even a few HoF candidates. lol.

            9th overall draft picks - NBA
            ==================

            Year Player
            2014 Noah Vonleh (gonna be a star)
            2013 Trey Burke
            2012 Andre Drummond
            2011 Kemba Walker
            2010 Gordon Hayward
            2009 Demar DeRozan
            2008 D.J. Augustin
            2007 Joakim Noah
            2006 Patrick O'Bryant
            2005 Ike Diogu
            2004 Andre Iguodala
            2003 Mike Sweetney
            2002 Amare Stoudemire
            2001 Rodney White
            2000 Joel Przybilla
            1999 Shawn Marion
            1998 Dirk Nowitzki
            1997 Tracy McGrady

            Comment


            • Miekenstien wrote: View Post
              you can't point to how good a job someone could have done without any proof. if he had of changed the wording of his article and not been criticizing but more of a historic "what has masai done" type piece i think it would have been better recieved.

              the exact same "can't know for sure" works on both sides of the argument and how good a job masai did or didn't do is up to each individual to decide. so lark, what hypotheticals didn't masai do that could have made the team better? coming on from "lurking" to insult a collective group of people who have an opinion, maybe just keep lurking.

              hands up on who can tell the future with absolute certainty? hands up on who knows every detail about the universe that isn't immediately in front of them right now? is any one here THE LORD our GOD? no one can. chisholm opened himself up to this criticism. we do know from moves we have seen masai make that he has been a very good gm for us. which trade have we clearly lost since he got here? which contract has been horrible for the team since he got here?
              Chisholm DID write a piece that outlined what Masai has already done, used that as the basis to ask whether he's too cautious, and very clearly states that Ujiri has done a good job and made great progress with the franchise in the time he's been there. But for some reason you and a lot of others seem to equate that questioning with a condemnation of his body of work, which clearly isn't the author's argument, and is what's driving me nuts about this discussion.

              Again, nobody is questioning that he's good at making positive value moves, but he hasn't made a big gamble type move and asking if that's personality or circumstance doesn't mean he's a bad GM. It's the equivalent of saying 'man, DeRozan hasn't shown he can hit that 3, wonder if he'll ever add that to his game'; he hasn't done it yet, so can we say he's going to in the future? For some reason we're all fine with doing it for any of the team's personnel except the GM. Makes no sense to me.

              Comment


              • golden wrote: View Post
                So whenever you have the 8th pick in the draft, you need to trade down one slot to 9th. The 9th slot is money. All-stars & max players galore and even a few HoF candidates. lol.

                9th overall draft picks - NBA
                ==================

                Year Player
                2014 Noah Vonleh (gonna be a star)
                2013 Trey Burke
                2012 Andre Drummond
                2011 Kemba Walker
                2010 Gordon Hayward
                2009 Demar DeRozan
                2008 D.J. Augustin
                2007 Joakim Noah
                2006 Patrick O'Bryant
                2005 Ike Diogu
                2004 Andre Iguodala
                2003 Mike Sweetney
                2002 Amare Stoudemire
                2001 Rodney White
                2000 Joel Przybilla
                1999 Shawn Marion
                1998 Dirk Nowitzki
                1997 Tracy McGrady
                I' sold. :-)

                Comment


                • Lark Benson wrote: View Post
                  Chisholm DID write a piece that outlined what Masai has already done, used that as the basis to ask whether he's too cautious, and very clearly states that Ujiri has done a good job and made great progress with the franchise in the time he's been there. But for some reason you and a lot of others seem to equate that questioning with a condemnation of his body of work, which clearly isn't the author's argument, and is what's driving me nuts about this discussion.

                  Again, nobody is questioning that he's good at making positive value moves, but he hasn't made a big gamble type move and asking if that's personality or circumstance doesn't mean he's a bad GM. It's the equivalent of saying 'man, DeRozan hasn't shown he can hit that 3, wonder if he'll ever add that to his game'; he hasn't done it yet, so can we say he's going to in the future? For some reason we're all fine with doing it for any of the team's personnel except the GM. Makes no sense to me.
                  The issue stems from what you said yourself:

                  Lark Benson wrote: View Post
                  I actually agree that a lot of what Chisholm states about how Ujiri has operated is incorrect or a half-truth.

                  It is the half-truths and neglecting of facts in context that casts doubt over the entire piece.

                  Ujiri hasn't done anything yet to suggest he isn't willing to take a risk or gamble on a big move.

                  I believe sticking with Casey for another year or signing DD to an extension will be grounds to open up such criticism.


                  Had Tim C phrased his piece in such a manner to question his approach and whether he is too cautious on the basis of impending decisions to extend Casey (again) and resign DD next summer, then I don't think you have the backlash or criticism. However that likely doesn't create much discussion for Tim on RR or Twitter. So there is that.


                  It isn't the criticism - it is how he arrived at it with baseless speculation disguised as fact.

                  Comment


                  • Snooch wrote: View Post
                    Close the season strong?

                    April: 7 games, 2.33pta, 31.3%
                    March: 15 Games, 1.53pta, 45.5%
                    Feb: 11 games, 1.53pta, 12.5%
                    Jan: 11 games, 1.63pta, 22.2%

                    Average of 1.73 attemps per game at 27.88%


                    Demars career average is 27%....so 4 months at 28% and 6 years at 28% is more likely the norm as opposed to 1.5 months at 38.4%....which is a full 10% points above his career average.

                    edit to add...

                    Over the last 7 games of the season Demars averages:
                    Assist % 23.6
                    Rebound % 6.1
                    Usage: 30
                    Total Shot % - 58

                    Over the last 4 months Demars averages were:
                    Assist % 19.3
                    Rebound % 7.4
                    Usage %28.5
                    TS% 51.5

                    His averages for 2014-2015:
                    Net rating -5
                    Assist % 17
                    Rebound % 7.6
                    Usage % 28.6
                    TS% 51

                    His averages for 2013-2014best season ever for him)
                    Net rating -3
                    Assist % 18.9
                    Rebound % 6.6
                    Usage % 28
                    TS% 53

                    His career averages are:
                    Net rating -4
                    Assist % 12.5
                    Rebound % 6.7
                    Usage % 25
                    TS% 52

                    What happens when we average everything out?(last 4 months, all of 2014-15 and all of 2013-14)
                    Net Rating: -4
                    Assist % 16.1
                    Rebound % 6.9
                    Usage % 27.2
                    TS% 52

                    The only areas in which there is any difference is in usage rate(gone up ALOT) and assist%( which has gone up) You could argue that having the ball alot more times certainly creates the opportunity to be able to pass more often.
                    Post Allstar break he was 22/5/4 with 35% from 3.

                    Comment


                    • SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                      Post Allstar break he was 22/5/4 with 35% from 3.
                      OK, so a MASSIVE sample size of 28 games!!!!

                      That surely goes against anything he has done in the previous 5.5 years of his career.....

                      But ets investigate, but please no raw stats because they do not tell the story.
                      Net Rating: -1
                      Assist % 18.2
                      Rebound % 7.8
                      Usage % 29.1
                      TS% 53

                      and sure he shot 35% on a whopping 44 shots from the 3pt line.

                      but lets ignore the 21% on his 41 shots from the 3pt line before the allstar break.

                      It isnt an improvement mate, its a return to the median, he shot worse than his career average from three before the allstar break, and shot a little better after...the end result is the same.

                      You can flip a coin 10 times and that coin might lant on heads every single time, but after 100 flips it will end up very close to 50-50.

                      Comment


                      • Axel wrote: View Post
                        Is there a particular reason you chose 8th to highlight?

                        Some of those guys were definitely reaches (at the time of the draft) and some are too early to really judge. One is Araujo lol
                        I still see a lot of useful picks at number 8

                        Comment


                        • Lark Benson wrote: View Post
                          He might be correct that Ujiri hasn't to this point in his career made the kind of big risk/big reward move that might be required to take this franchise from perrenial 2nd round fodder to championship contender if free agency and the draft can't. He might be correct to wonder if that's going to be a problem in the future.



                          This seems to be the go-to response to the article, and no one is disputing it, not even Chisholm. Whether or not we're in a good spot isn't the point, the point is that getting from here to contender might require a GM with a different skill set. Just like we can criticize DeRozan for his inefficient game while lauding his ability to get to the line, or criticize Casey for his stale offence while acknowledging that he gets his players to play hard for him, we can criticize Ujiri for perhaps playing it too safe while building a damn fine roster.

                          That's what he's done well in his GM career, build a couple of rosters full of quality assets based on what he inherited. But he hasn't had to try taking a roster from treadmill to contender. The moves he's made so far have been largely low-risk moves designed to add value to the roster, but can those kinds of moves alone elevate this core? What if the draft doesn't yield a star and free agency just yields another solid starter and/or Ujiri is forced to re-up DeRozan due to lack of better options? In other words, what happens if the Raps have the same kind of offseason that most of the teams relying on cap space have every year, and then face the same lack of options that keeps so many teams on the treadmill and causes so many teams to try to avoid it? Is Ujiri the guy to make the risky trade, or to blow it up after a couple of years of treadmill, or to just continue making 'iterative progress'? Is he stalking in the grass or is he comfortable in the sun? Ujiji said firmly he wouldn't be caught in mediocrity, but unless he's willing to roll the dice at some point he might not have a choice. And given his track record, I agree that it's worth at least wondering what might happen if he's backed into that corner.
                          Actually, this is one of those half-truths, or un-truths of the article and JimiCliff nailed it. Trading the franchises 2 best players (Bargs & Gay) who, unlike Melo, weren't asking to go anywhere pretty much blows up the entire premise from the get-go. Those were swift and decisive bold moves, whether you care to admit it or not.

                          And people quickly how the fanbase was turning on Lowry until that legendary TL/MU sit-down telling KL it was time to grow up, or something like that. Lowry was in no way, shape or form considered a potential all-star and face of the franchise. It's a completely different arc of the franchise without that little chat. Same thing with DD. I remember myself firmly on the side of DD being a net-negative player, despite the stats, and then changing my opinion pro-Demar after his all-star year. But now it seems like after-the-fact that Tim C. & MU knew these guys were all-stars & "found money". That's the second half-truth.

                          In essence, MU has been separating the trash from the treasure and did get lucky with chemistry, but he quickly and decisively made the key "bold moves" - which was discarding the trash that was being previously sold to the fans as treasure. Like every other GM, he's trying to figure out how to trade those small treasures into a vast fortune.

                          And in terms of what's the next bold move, and when? Again, a bit of silly question. Unfortunately for Tim C and others, there is no sure-fire NBA franchise building strategy or playbook. There's also no timeline when real opportunity and preparation (aka. luck) will align. You can sure force that timeline, which is what loser franchises like the Knicks have done repeatedly. The reality is that pretty much every GM (even star execs like Sam Presti), is/are figuring it all out as they go along.

                          At least we do have a long-term vision, which is Wiggins coming home to play with Jamal Murray (I hope). The Canadian angle combined with the superstars-going-home trend, is a potential competitive advantage that the Raps have over every other NBA franchise. TL/MU have set that campaign in motion and it seems to be gaining traction.

                          Comment


                          • Scraptor wrote: View Post
                            That's just it. The evidence will only be inarguable proof after the fact, unfortunately, because no one ever thinks they're on a treadmill while they're on it.

                            Individually most of his moves look fine, but take a longer-term, bigger-picture view and they don't look like they're going to move the needle enough. If you believe the core is flawed and unable to compete at the highest level, then incrementalism won't get us anywhere.

                            I mean there was a lot of talk about how this was a super important summer for Masai because of the capspace and the opportunity to bring in a new coach.

                            Among all the free agents available, very few were advocating for Carroll, who is largely viewed as a role player and was considered to be worth by some $10mm/yr:
                            http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...ptors&p=468661

                            And the one upshot of losing in the first round was having the excuse to bring in a better coach.

                            Now we're shifting the goalposts yet again into the summer of 2016. And with DeMar taking part in the recruiting of Carroll, I would bet good money that he'll be back for a large sum of money. It just looks like we're trying to swim in settling concrete.

                            But a safe strategy is pretty unassailable. There are no wrong glaring moves, only renewed hope into each season as time passes you by.
                            He could swing for the fences like Phoenix does... Hows that working out ?
                            And with the 4th overall pick the Toronto Raptors select..... Scottie Barnes.

                            Comment


                            • mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
                              It is the half-truths and neglecting of facts in context that casts doubt over the entire piece.

                              Ujiri hasn't done anything yet to suggest he isn't willing to take a risk or gamble on a big move.
                              He also hasn't done anything to suggest that he IS willing to take a risk or gamble, which is the point. This narrative directly correlates again to how we talk about players; we wonder if certain guys can shed their 'difficult' labels, or whether they have the makeup to be the alpha dog, or accept a smaller role as they age, etc. You can't assume someone is willing to behave in a manner that they rarely display simply because you hope they can.

                              mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
                              I believe sticking with Casey for another year or signing DD to an extension will be grounds to open up such criticism.


                              Had Tim C phrased his piece in such a manner to question his approach and whether he is too cautious on the basis of impending decisions to extend Casey (again) and resign DD next summer, then I don't think you have the backlash or criticism. However that likely doesn't create much discussion for Tim on RR or Twitter. So there is that.


                              It isn't the criticism - it is how he arrived at it with baseless speculation disguised as fact.
                              always played it safe, but if the bulk of his work suggests that's his MO, don't we get to wonder if that's his comfort zone and that he might be reluctant to step out of it? That maybe if his strong point is hoarding assets and that he'd be reluctant to part with them in the kind of high-risk, high-reward move that could be the difference between treadmill and contender?

                              Comment


                              • Snooch wrote: View Post
                                OK, so a MASSIVE sample size of 28 games!!!!

                                That surely goes against anything he has done in the previous 5.5 years of his career.....

                                But ets investigate, but please no raw stats because they do not tell the story.
                                Net Rating: -1
                                Assist % 18.2
                                Rebound % 7.8
                                Usage % 29.1
                                TS% 53

                                and sure he shot 35% on a whopping 44 shots from the 3pt line.

                                but lets ignore the 21% on his 41 shots from the 3pt line before the allstar break.

                                It isnt an improvement mate, its a return to the median, he shot worse than his career average from three before the allstar break, and shot a little better after...the end result is the same.

                                You can flip a coin 10 times and that coin might lant on heads every single time, but after 100 flips it will end up very close to 50-50.
                                Is there any other #1 option who's team plays better offense when he's on the bench?
                                "Both teams played hard my man" - Sheed

                                Comment

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