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Article: Ujiri Resting Heavily On Maintaining The Status Quo

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  • Snooch wrote: View Post
    That holds as little weight as air.

    Bargnani kicked ass for 13 games too. Should all future claims of his talent be based on that?

    Demar stunk to start the season....doesnt matter....it balances out in the wash.

    Liek I said it is fliping the coin, Demar was better, yes, but that is not a reason to expect an overall jump in improvement, it was a "returning to the median" he shot better in the second half because he shot worse in the first half.

    Demar is what he is and there is NO statistical support, or eye test support to lead anyone to believe that he all of a sudden has become a shooter that is a full 10% better at shooting 3 pointers.
    You set the goal posts when you asked "Close the season strong?" All I did was demonstrate that he did, in fact, close the season strong.

    There is of statistical support that he has become a better 3-point shooter than his career average, including that he shot 30.5% the season before on 2.8 attempts per game over 79 games. Were we to plot his 3-point makes over his career, it would be the first half of last season that looks like the outlier to the general trend.

    Bottomline, we'll have to wait and see if the practice on his 3-ball pays off. He's got to be getting close to 10,000 hours, and he's at an age where a lot of players break through with their distance shooting. I already have a bet that he will top 31.5% next season, care to get in on that?

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    • SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post

      Bottomline, we'll have to wait and see if the practice on his 3-ball pays off. He's got to be getting close to 10,000 hours, and he's at an age where a lot of players break through with their distance shooting. I already have a bet that he will top 31.5% next season, care to get in on that?
      Heard this story before.

      Even if DD starts hitting threes at that rate, if you are Masai, you need to leave DD hanging or make a big move (trading Lowry?) to even really get a seat at the KD table.

      Of the two, he's less likely to trade Lowry imo.

      I think Masai would risk alienating DD to get that sit down with KD. If he strikes out, he can still overpay DD (overpay to mend fences) and sign a max PF in 2017 or find another alternative (Batum) for less.

      All the best options seem to point to DD being the fall guy for KD.
      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

      Comment


      • SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
        You set the goal posts when you asked "Close the season strong?" All I did was demonstrate that he did, in fact, close the season strong.

        There is of statistical support that he has become a better 3-point shooter than his career average, including that he shot 30.5% the season before on 2.8 attempts per game over 79 games. Were we to plot his 3-point makes over his career, it would be the first half of last season that looks like the outlier to the general trend.

        Bottomline, we'll have to wait and see if the practice on his 3-ball pays off. He's got to be getting close to 10,000 hours, and he's at an age where a lot of players break through with their distance shooting. I already have a bet that he will top 31.5% next season, care to get in on that?
        I didnt set any goals, you claimed he ended the season strong and that would translate into his future performance. I disagreed and supported it with alot of data that suggest that the end of the season was a merely returning to his average.

        then you came out with the statement of he ended the season strong. and ended it there, that is moving the goalposts mate.

        And 30.5 over his career average of 28 is not a great improvement, he was 28% 3 years ago, 28% last season and 30 % in between and his career average is 28....that suggests he is FAR more likely to maintain a 28% average than increase up to 31.5%

        we have all waited to see if his "practice" has paid off for multiple years, and it has yet to, so again I will stick with what I know.

        Comment


        • Snooch wrote: View Post
          I didnt set any goals, you claimed he ended the season strong and that would translate into his future performance. I disagreed and supported it with alot of data that suggest that the end of the season was a merely returning to his average.

          then you came out with the statement of he ended the season strong. and ended it there, that is moving the goalposts mate.

          And 30.5 over his career average of 28 is not a great improvement, he was 28% 3 years ago, 28% last season and 30 % in between and his career average is 28....that suggests he is FAR more likely to maintain a 28% average than increase up to 31.5%

          we have all waited to see if his "practice" has paid off for multiple years, and it has yet to, so again I will stick with what I know.
          We've seen his 3point makes go from 4, to 5, to 24, to 34, to 64, then regress to 25 in a season where he suffered his first significant injury. I'm going to bet on the over (that he'll improve on his career average for makes and percentage), and I think I've got pretty good reason to do so.

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          • mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
            As I said originally, Tim's article is about 10 months early.

            The table is set for big things.

            If Casey and DD are back, then treadmill no doubt. The only part of core locked in long term is JV an Carroll - 2 starters who in 2017 are paid around $9m each in 2015 dollars.

            And recruitment means little. Parsons fingerprints were all over Howard to Houston and he was gone the next summer. Your bias in the discussion has showed, just as mine always has, because you believe DD is going to be back for big money. If I believed that, I would likely feel same way.
            The table was set for big things this summer too. We had max capspace available and landed DeMarre Carroll.

            The problem that I haven't seen mentioned much in this thread is that in 2016 practically EVERYONE will have max capspace due to the rising cap. Competition is going to be twice as bad as this past summer. Yet that's where our hopes are pinned now.

            It gets back to how you acquire and control talent. I am pessimistic based on plenty of past experience that we can acquire meaningful needle-moving talent through free agency. If the assembling of assets enables us to land a superstar via trade, I'll eat my words, but the NBA is a superstar's league and we are seeing an ever-growing reluctance to deal talent via trade due to that very reason.

            Oh well. We'll see how things play out. I'll hope for the best but I'm prepared for the worst.

            Comment


            • Axel wrote: View Post
              Heard this story before.

              Even if DD starts hitting threes at that rate, if you are Masai, you need to leave DD hanging or make a big move (trading Lowry?) to even really get a seat at the KD table.

              Of the two, he's less likely to trade Lowry imo.

              I think Masai would risk alienating DD to get that sit down with KD. If he strikes out, he can still overpay DD (overpay to mend fences) and sign a max PF in 2017 or find another alternative (Batum) for less.

              All the best options seem to point to DD being the fall guy for KD.
              That's beside the current point about whether we can reasonably expect DeMar to improve. That said, we really don't know how Masai is approaching this free agency, maybe he can operate like the Spurs did with LA, shedding contracts when it was clear the deal was done, or maybe it's time to forego free agency in favour of the trade market, or aim for 2017. All I know is an improved DeMar, with only his cap hold counting against the cap, is going to be more of a draw to prospective free agents than the likes of Gerald Henderson.

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              • Scraptor wrote: View Post
                The table was set for big things this summer too. We had max capspace available and landed DeMarre Carroll.

                The problem that I haven't seen mentioned much in this thread is that in 2016 practically EVERYONE will have max capspace due to the rising cap. Competition is going to be twice as bad as this past summer. Yet that's where our hopes are pinned now.

                It gets back to how you acquire and control talent. I am pessimistic based on plenty of past experience that we can acquire meaningful needle-moving talent through free agency. If the assembling of assets enables us to land a superstar via trade, I'll eat my words, but the NBA is a superstar's league and we are seeing an ever-growing reluctance to deal talent via trade due to that very reason.

                Oh well. We'll see how things play out. I'll hope for the best but I'm prepared for the worst.
                But our hopes aren't dead set on 2016 free agency. After this well-played offseason we are set up to compete with a balanced team, and we have tons of trade assets and assets for internal development.

                Comment


                • SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                  That's beside the current point about whether we can reasonably expect DeMar to improve. That said, we really don't know how Masai is approaching this free agency, maybe he can operate like the Spurs did with LA, shedding contracts when it was clear the deal was done, or maybe it's time to forego free agency in favour of the trade market, or aim for 2017. All I know is an improved DeMar, with only his cap hold counting against the cap, is going to be more of a draw to prospective free agents than the likes of Gerald Henderson.
                  Why do you think DD is a big draw for free agents? I've heard that before but never really understood why he'd be a big draw. Amir was let go and he loved Toronto maybe even more than DD did/does.

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                  • SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                    That's beside the current point about whether we can reasonably expect DeMar to improve. That said, we really don't know how Masai is approaching this free agency, maybe he can operate like the Spurs did with LA, shedding contracts when it was clear the deal was done, or maybe it's time to forego free agency in favour of the trade market, or aim for 2017. All I know is an improved DeMar, with only his cap hold counting against the cap, is going to be more of a draw to prospective free agents than the likes of Gerald Henderson.
                    why are you know comparing Demar to henderson?

                    to try and make Demar look better?

                    When in actuality, Henderson in the same role, would most likely produce at least equally to that of Demar.

                    And Demar with his caphold, would not be a draw to any free agents, because Demars caphold take away all capspace.

                    I thought this has been made abundantly clear over and over.

                    Comment


                    • SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                      But our hopes aren't dead set on 2016 free agency. After this well-played offseason we are set up to compete with a balanced team, and we have tons of trade assets and assets for internal development.
                      any team with Demar having 30% of total usage is not a complete and balanced team mate.

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                      • Snooch wrote: View Post
                        any team with Demar having 30% of total usage is not a complete and balanced team mate.
                        And who says he needs to have such a high usage with this team, or the team we would have after major consolidation trades?
                        Last edited by SkywalkerAC; Tue Sep 1, 2015, 08:02 PM.

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                        • Snooch wrote: View Post
                          why are you know comparing Demar to henderson?

                          to try and make Demar look better?

                          When in actuality, Henderson in the same role, would most likely produce at least equally to that of Demar.

                          And Demar with his caphold, would not be a draw to any free agents, because Demars caphold take away all capspace.

                          I thought this has been made abundantly clear over and over.
                          I thought all of this started with you proposing a hypothetical of dumping DeMar and picking up Henderson on the cheap, no?

                          DeMar's cap hold is relatively low, under 15 mill. This means you can dump other contracts to get under the cap if you wanted to retain him. If he was signed immediately for 20+ mill, that would make it very difficult to get far enough under the cap.

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                          • planetmars wrote: View Post
                            Why do you think DD is a big draw for free agents? I've heard that before but never really understood why he'd be a big draw. Amir was let go and he loved Toronto maybe even more than DD did/does.
                            Because he's a star-calibre player that gets along well with, and seems to be respected by, other stars of the league - has played with them in McDonald's All-American, Team USA, Allstar games, etc.

                            Comment


                            • SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                              Because he's a star-calibre player that gets along well with, and seems to be respected by, other stars of the league - has played with them in McDonald's All-American, Team USA, Allstar games, etc.
                              The McDonald's all-american team doesn't have many stars on it. Here is who he played with:
                              Tyrke Evans, Kemba Walker, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeler, Al-Farouq Aminu, Iman Shumpert, Brandon Jennings, Greg Monroe, Jrue Holiday

                              I don't think Shumpert or Aminu has much clout and he may have just as much as Evans.

                              With regards to Team USA which was a great accomplishment.. Amir just played with those guys as well this summer.

                              And the all-star game was one time. Even David Lee made that team (twice). Is he a guy that people flock to play with?

                              I'm just not seeing the draw personally. He's a good kid but so was Amir and he was just let go for nothing. Amir produced better than DD did as well (if you look at the stats).

                              Comment


                              • SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                                But our hopes aren't dead set on 2016 free agency. After this well-played offseason we are set up to compete with a balanced team, and we have tons of trade assets and assets for internal development.
                                Snooch wrote: View Post
                                why are you know comparing Demar to henderson?

                                to try and make Demar look better?

                                When in actuality, Henderson in the same role, would most likely produce at least equally to that of Demar.

                                And Demar with his caphold, would not be a draw to any free agents, because Demars caphold take away all capspace.

                                I thought this has been made abundantly clear over and over.
                                Snooch wrote: View Post
                                any team with Demar having 30% of total usage is not a complete and balanced team mate.
                                It was you who brought Gerald Henderson in to the conversation, Snooch. He has a PER of 13.29 vs. DeMar's 17.49, of course. I don't want to start a "stats war". But it's not simply a given that he'd be an adequate replacement, as you have opined.

                                And sure, the finances get trickier if you want to keep DeMar and sign a star FA. But I believe it is actually possible. And you're too regular a participant here to need me to re-hash all the personal and professional reasons why DeMar might be a lure to top-tier FA's. I would only insist it's possible. No?

                                And Skywalker was clearly referring to next year's team, on a fair reading of his remarks, and the defensive-minded departures and acquisitions in the off-season, when he spoke of a "more balanced team". While you were offered only "yesterday's news", in response.

                                And as for anything having been made "abundantly clear, over and over", well , I think we all know that you have advanced similar opinions often enough. But that does not mean you are offering the only relevant facts. Or that we must all simply accept them as such. Would you disagree with this, too?

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