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Article: Ujiri Resting Heavily On Maintaining The Status Quo

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  • Snooch
    replied
    slaw wrote: View Post
    Maybe. Maybe not. Context matters. The status quo isn't infinite and the roster isn't static. Overpaying a few guys isn't a big deal if you're saving money elsewhere with cheaper rookie deals and second rounders. Now, I do agree that if your modus operandi is constantly filling out your roster with third rate free agents a la Bryan Colangelo, then you risk creating a structural problem but no one is suggesting that is the current - or preferred - model.
    I agree, I am all for shrewd cap management, and I do not think for one second that the DC deal is any sort of an overpay.

    Leave a comment:


  • slaw
    replied
    Snooch wrote: View Post
    1-3 million on one players isnt a problem, but if it is a continuing trend that involves 3 or 4 players, then it becomes a MAJOR problem.
    Maybe. Maybe not. Context matters. The status quo isn't infinite and the roster isn't static. Overpaying a few guys isn't a big deal if you're saving money elsewhere with cheaper rookie deals and second rounders. Now, I do agree that if your modus operandi is constantly filling out your roster with third rate free agents a la Bryan Colangelo, then you risk creating a structural problem but no one is suggesting that is the current - or preferred - model.

    Leave a comment:


  • Snooch
    replied
    slaw wrote: View Post
    ..

    As for future cap pressure, I'll repeat: if the paying Demare Carroll an extra $1-3 million a year ties management's hands going forward then the Raptors have way, way bigger issues in management than a single free agent contract.

    1-3 million on one players isnt a problem, but if it is a continuing trend that involves 3 or 4 players, then it becomes a MAJOR problem.

    Leave a comment:


  • slaw
    replied
    Scraptor wrote: View Post
    This is the kind of relativism that gets GMs into trouble.

    The standard we set for signings shouldn't be, did we overpay a little compared to what other guys were getting or what other teams were offering?

    The standard should be, did we pay him what he is worth?

    Is a role player worth around 17% of the cap over the next four years? Because on average that is what his contract works out to. That's just under $11mm/year in 2014-15 terms.

    If we're going to play the moneyball style of building from the middle a la Morey and the Rockets you can't engage in relative valuations, you have to find absolute value where you can.

    We had this discussion repeatedly during the BC era, because that was how BC justified a lot of his signings, that it was just a few million dollars of an overpay. But you stack up enough of those overpays and before you know it you've squeezed out enough cap room to limit your options.

    If DeMar gets $20mm/year, you could be looking at nearly 50% of the cap in 2016-17 being used up by Cory Joseph, DeMar DeRozan, and DeMarre Carroll.

    It's not ridiculous to exercise a little bit of skepticism.
    A few comments.

    Again, free agents come at a premium. If a team doesn't want to pay the premium then that is a legitimate position to take but that team needs to be prepared to be a non-factor in free agency.

    As for value, I have no idea how you determine the absolute value of a player. I would not even begin to guess where you start such an undertaking (how much money they generate for the organization?) but if you are able to put forth a predictive, absolute valuation model for pro athletes I suspect you could be worth about $10,000,000 (or likely way more) by the end of the year.

    I don't know what "moneyball style" means and I don't know why you think Raptors management is adhering the that "theory". If you simply mean that they should be looking to exploit market inefficiencies then I am confident they are trying to do that - just like everyone else.

    As for BC, the issue with his free agent deals was that they were given to largely or completely unproductive players (e.g. Kleiza, Fields, Kapono) who had little to no value inside or outside the organization.

    As for future cap pressure, I'll repeat: if the paying Demare Carroll an extra $1-3 million a year ties management's hands going forward then the Raptors have way, way bigger issues in management than a single free agent contract.

    Leave a comment:


  • raptors999
    replied
    BC overpayed because he signed guys who really didn't fit or filled a hole. Demarre fills a big wing hole and the extra to get him on the roster is worth it just like CoJo solidify the second guard spot. If MU brought back Lou it would be an overpay even though he cost half DC contract because there is no need for a small scoring SG

    Leave a comment:


  • OldSkoolCool
    replied
    Every time I read the title of this thread "maintaining the status quo", I think that is the last thing I want

    The status quo last year was to give our guards and coach free reign to make stupid decisions...uuughh

    Leave a comment:


  • Scraptor
    replied
    slaw wrote: View Post
    Are people still on about this? It's free agency. Guys get paid premiums. He was an unrestricted who was the best SF available (all the other guys were re-signing or RFAs). He was getting a premium. If you aren't willing to pay a premium then you won't be in on certain guys. Now, if a guy is getting $15 million a year and you could have signed him for $5 million, that's a terrible deal but quibbling over a difference of $1-3 million a year is ridiculous. It's peanuts to MLSE and if the Raps' management can't find a way to massage an extra couple million or so in cap space if they need it, then the organization has far bigger problems than the Carroll contract.
    This is the kind of relativism that gets GMs into trouble.

    The standard we set for signings shouldn't be, did we overpay a little compared to what other guys were getting or what other teams were offering?

    The standard should be, did we pay him what he is worth?

    Is a role player worth around 17% of the cap over the next four years? Because on average that is what his contract works out to. That's just under $11mm/year in 2014-15 terms.

    If we're going to play the moneyball style of building from the middle a la Morey and the Rockets you can't engage in relative valuations, you have to find absolute value where you can.

    We had this discussion repeatedly during the BC era, because that was how BC justified a lot of his signings, that it was just a few million dollars of an overpay. But you stack up enough of those overpays and before you know it you've squeezed out enough cap room to limit your options.

    If DeMar gets $20mm/year, you could be looking at nearly 50% of the cap in 2016-17 being used up by Cory Joseph, DeMar DeRozan, and DeMarre Carroll.

    It's not ridiculous to exercise a little bit of skepticism.

    Leave a comment:


  • Demographic Shift
    replied
    slaw wrote: View Post
    Are people still on about this? It's free agency. Guys get paid premiums. He was an unrestricted who was the best SF available (all the other guys were re-signing or RFAs). He was getting a premium. If you aren't willing to pay a premium then you won't be in on certain guys. Now, if a guy is getting $15 million a year and you could have signed him for $5 million, that's a terrible deal but quibbling over a difference of $1-3 million a year is ridiculous. It's peanuts to MLSE and if the Raps' management can't find a way to massage an extra couple million or so in cap space if they need it, then the organization has far bigger problems than the Carroll contract.
    Completely agree on this nonsense of "overpay" for a free agent. Its been my empirical but undocumented experience that those who make the most noise about how much someone paid or "overpaid" for something are generally envious of the acquisition because:
    a) they can't afford it, or
    b) got outbid for it while they tried to gather up some more money to pay what its worth.
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Fri Sep 18, 2015, 02:44 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Snooch
    replied
    mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    I believe every contract was given with every intention of offering a maximum contract next summer.

    They probably didn't feel the desire to nickel and dime over $1-3m with the big picture in mind considering the $15m fit with the big picture... Oh and the big picture rhymes devin kurant.
    Melvin Mutant?

    oh wait

    Arnold Schwarzenegger?

    Leave a comment:


  • Axel
    replied
    mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    I believe every contract was given with every intention of offering a maximum contract next summer.

    They probably didn't feel the desire to nickel and dime over $1-3m with the big picture in mind considering the $15m fit with the big picture... Oh and the big picture rhymes devin kurant.
    Oh I agree completely. He's well worth the money and is an excellent fit (both now and "big picture" moving forward).

    Leave a comment:


  • Axel
    replied
    slaw wrote: View Post
    Are people still on about this? It's free agency. Guys get paid premiums. He was an unrestricted who was the best SF available (all the other guys were re-signing or RFAs). He was getting a premium. If you aren't willing to pay a premium then you won't be in on certain guys. Now, if a guy is getting $15 million a year and you could have signed him for $5 million, that's a terrible deal but quibbling over a difference of $1-3 million a year is ridiculous. It's peanuts to MLSE and if the Raps' management can't find a way to massage an extra couple million or so in cap space if they need it, then the organization has far bigger problems than the Carroll contract.
    No one is on about this. An article was posted grading the offseason for each team. In it the writer said that Carroll was an overpay but one you're happy with since it's such a great add. I pointed out the comment and agreed with its sentiments and since then people have been dissecting whether he was an overpay or not.

    Leave a comment:


  • mcHAPPY
    replied
    I believe every contract was given with every intention of offering a maximum contract next summer.

    They probably didn't feel the desire to nickel and dime over $1-3m with the big picture in mind considering the $15m fit with the big picture... Oh and the big picture rhymes devin kurant.

    Leave a comment:


  • slaw
    replied
    Primer wrote: View Post
    Seems like no one else got a chance to offer him, he signed that quick. The fact the other top SF free agents got roughly the same money tells me we didn't overpay. None of the starting SF free agents got as little as $12M so I don't think that's what the market said he's worth. I think we just gave him a fair contract and promised him an increased role. It felt right to him so he signed right away instead of seeing if he could get an extra million or two from shit heaps like Sacramento or LA.
    Are people still on about this? It's free agency. Guys get paid premiums. He was an unrestricted who was the best SF available (all the other guys were re-signing or RFAs). He was getting a premium. If you aren't willing to pay a premium then you won't be in on certain guys. Now, if a guy is getting $15 million a year and you could have signed him for $5 million, that's a terrible deal but quibbling over a difference of $1-3 million a year is ridiculous. It's peanuts to MLSE and if the Raps' management can't find a way to massage an extra couple million or so in cap space if they need it, then the organization has far bigger problems than the Carroll contract.

    Leave a comment:


  • Primer
    replied
    Snooch wrote: View Post
    I dont know if i would call him an allstar snub......

    Sent from my HTC One V using Tapatalk
    Basically the entire Hawks roster made the All Star team. You could have easily put him in there over Korver or Teague. He was basically the last man out of the All Star team.

    Leave a comment:


  • Primer
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post
    His contract also has the potential to be an overpay if Carroll's effectiveness has been largely due to the system and coaching, which isn't replicated here. Mike D'Antoni type of players come to mind. Extreme example would be if we try to turn Carroll into an ISO/create off the dribble type of wing, which I doubt will happen though. Or if we have him guarding PF a lot.
    Luckily he isn't coming from a niche system like Phoenix ran, not to mention many of their players went on to better careers outside Phoenix. As I've stated many times, no one that has left the Spurs system has played worse on their new teams, and Demarre is essentially coming from the Spurs system (Atlanta runs the same system). It seems more likely that Atlanta developed him into a much better player (lots of articles on their player development with DC), so I fully expect him to be just as good here.

    Leave a comment:

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