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JV vs the field - Big Men Production last year

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  • JV vs the field - Big Men Production last year

    http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...295#post366295) to see how our own JV stands up against the competition in terms of development curve.

    This time, I decided to try and look at things from a different angle. Focusing entire on last year, I wanted to gauge how our young big stands today vs his peers. Trying to show a cross section of how JV produces at each end of the court can be daunting, so trying to simplify to single statistical categories for each was necessary. After much deliberation, I felt that the three key facets of a successful big man are:

    OppFG%Rebounding%Scoring efficiencyThe filtersOppFG% - 81 qualifying playersOppFG%.jpgReb%.jpg

    TS%.jpghttp://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...295#post366295, Al Horford, Bogut, and Okafor.

    OppFG% 3rd Year
    Bogut 46.8%
    Okafor 55.7%
    JV 57.1%
    Horford 58.2%

    TS% 3rd year
    JV 62.6%JV 19.1%
    Last edited by Axel; Wed Sep 23rd, 2015, 02:59 PM.
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

  • #2
    Nice post.

    A note about rebounding. That rebounds per rebound chances stat is largely valueless. Any player who never crashes the offensive glass will end up with very high rates, as defensive rebounding typically rewards players at a 75% rate. Offensive boards happen only 25% of the time, so every offensive board a player attempts will on average drag their conversion rate way down.

    If the NBA provided separate offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding conversion rates they would be great to have. But together they are practically meaningless.

    Consider: player A rarely attempts offensive rebounds, only grabbing 6.8% of available offensive rebounds. He is a poor defensive rebounder, grabbing only 16.3% of defensive rebounds. He grabs 3.4 uncontested rebounds per game (assuming out of 3.4 uncontested rebound chances). He grabs 1.9 contested rebounds out of 5 contested rebound chances, for a contested rebound conversion rate of 38%. His overall conversion rate is 64%.

    Player B crashes the offensive glass, grabbing 11.8% of available offensive rebounds. He's also a tremendous defensive rebounder, grabbing 26.3% of available boards on that end. He grabs 4.8 uncontested boards per game (assuming out of 4.8 uncontested rebound chances). He grabs 3.8 contested rebounds out of 9.8 contested rebound chances, for a contested rebound conversion rate of 39%. His overall conversion rate is 59.2%.

    Who is the better rebounder? Rebounding conversion rate suggests that player A is better. But as you can see, they convert on contested rebounds at nearly identical rates. The difference is that player B manages to put himself in far more contested rebound situations (and more uncontested ones as well) which results in the much, much better overall rebounding numbers. But with his contested rebounding situations far outweighing his uncontested situations, that overall conversion rate drops.

    For the record, player A is Patrick Patterson and player B is Jonas Valanciunas.

    I could present further anecdotal evidence against rebounding conversion rate (some of the best rebounders in the league are pretty far down the list in that stat, Greivis Vasquez and Lou Williams were the two best rebounders on the team) but I felt it better to demonstrate why it is problematic instead.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • #3
      Oh, and you are misusing the contested rebound stat. It is not how many of their contested rebounds they end up with. But how many of the rebounds they end up with are contested. Also basically useless.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • #4
        DanH wrote: View Post
        Oh, and you are misusing the contested rebound stat. It is not how many of their contested rebounds they end up with. But how many of the rebounds they end up with are contested. Also basically useless.
        Ah yes, I see that now. So really Reb% is the only player tracker stat for rebounding worth reviewing and it still isn't great. Player tracking offers such high potential but still underwhelms outside of offense. Hopefully the data evolves sooner rather than later to capture better measures for Def and rebounding.
        Last edited by Axel; Wed Sep 23rd, 2015, 08:38 PM.
        Heir, Prince of Cambridge

        If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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        • #5
          Lol What a stiff, trade him for Tyrion Lannister so Casey can run his 25th ranked defense his way
          "Both teams played hard my man" - Sheed

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          • #6
            For rebounding, the best stats available are still simple ORB% and DRB%.

            Sadly, the data is there for better information (conversion rates on offensive rebound and defensive rebound chances, number of offensive and defensive rebound chances generated per missed shot) but they've just done a terrible job presenting the data on the NBA stats website to the point where it is useless.
            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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            • #7
              The TS% was what jumped out to me. I knew about it before. I know it is some what screwed because he shoots a high percentage from the freethrow line, but that just means you know he can continue to develop an offensive game. I am excited. The more we feed him the more he goes to the line the more he converts at the same percentage as Demar. He is efficient. He just needs to hesitate less and learn to not panic and pass better out of situations. That isn't to say he has is turnover prone it just what he needs to work on to be successful.

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