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First win total over/under odds released by Vegas sportsbook, Raps at 45.5

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  • First win total over/under odds released by Vegas sportsbook, Raps at 45.5

    Raps at 45.5. I think we're a solid bet to make the over as long as we stay healthy. If every team hits their over/under number we'd take the Knicks' 8th pick.



    http://letsnba.com/odds-nba-over-under-wins/
    It’s Ogugua season. Time to gugua.

  • #2
    that would be ok result.
    Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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    • #3
      As a total it's low, but tied for 4th with the Heat and Wiz isn't so unfair. I tend to think our SL + depth will see us through to 50+ though.
      Last edited by SkywalkerAC; Wed Sep 30, 2015, 01:32 AM.

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      • #4
        As an informed prediction, 45.5 is a little low; while the composition of the team has changed significantly, nobody who is paying attention to the team thinks that swapping Johnson for Scola and/or more PPat is going to be enough of a downgrade to counteract the upgrades from Vasquez and LouWill to Carroll and Joseph, plus having a legit backup C in Biyombo. Things would have to go significantly wrong for the Raptors to not be flirting with 50 wins again.

        That being said, 45.5 is probably just about right for interest from NBA bettors, who have more knowledge of and/or interest in other teams anyway.

        Interesting that three teams with a higher over-under in the hyper-competitive west all have lower odds of a title than Cleveland, though; that suggests to me that if Vegas is right, Cleveland's over-under should be higher to account for playing in the weaker Eastern Conference.

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        • #5
          NYK with the 7th overall.....

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          • #6
            Snooch wrote: View Post
            NYK with the 7th overall.....
            .....and the raptors select Jamal Murray from the University of Kentucky.

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            • #7
              I want the Raps to win it all every year, but wouldn't be totally bummed out if we finished 7-8th, or even missed the playoffs. It would make it easier to package the Raps own pick + Knicks pick to trade up in the draft, or package for a superstar. The debate about a coaching change would also end, assuming it hadn't happened already by mid-season.

              And for some reason, I can see that tanking weeny, Sam Hinkie, drafting Jamal Murray with that annoying cat-ate-the-canary smirk that would make you just want to punch him in the face all the more. We really need to get somebody like Murray - a decent sized wing/guard who can make clutch shots when the game is on the line. Lowry's just too small and Demar doesn't have the clutch gene.

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              • #8
                I don't gamble, but aren't the odds dependent on what Vegas thinks people will vote and not what they believe will be the actual win total? Maybe they suspect NY fans to bet on the Knicks driving up their price, so they gave them a higher win count then they really expect? And Toronto a somewhat modest win count because they don't get as many betters?

                I think 45 wins honestly is about right.. I'd be surprised if they supplanted the 49 win total from last year. Carroll and Joseph rely on ball movement (as does Ross and Patterson).. and I just don't see that happening. I don't trust DD or KL to help move the ball enough or Casey to be smart enough to create plays that encourage ball movement.

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                • #9
                  TheWaterboy wrote: View Post
                  As an informed prediction, 45.5 is a little low; while the composition of the team has changed significantly, nobody who is paying attention to the team thinks that swapping Johnson for Scola and/or more PPat is going to be enough of a downgrade to counteract the upgrades from Vasquez and LouWill to Carroll and Joseph, plus having a legit backup C in Biyombo. Things would have to go significantly wrong for the Raptors to not be flirting with 50 wins again.
                  45.5 is just about right. Players like Biyombo, Scola mean nothing to the traders as they are called "half point players" in gambling world.

                  TheWaterboy wrote: View Post
                  That being said, 45.5 is probably just about right for interest from NBA bettors, who have more knowledge of and/or interest in other teams anyway.
                  Let me fix this for ya.. "That being said, 45.5 is probably just about right for interest from NBA fans,Pro-Raptors fans who have no betting knowledge of and/or interest in other teams anyway".

                  Don't stick your nose in this market boys. It's a CLEAR NO BET here. Money maker for the bookies.
                  Last edited by rocwell; Wed Sep 30, 2015, 09:57 AM.

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                  • #10
                    mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
                    .....and the raptors select Jamal Murray from the University of Kentucky.
                    lots of guys, but he would definitely be high on my list.

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                    • #11
                      I will shit my pants if we get anyone good from that pick.

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                      • #12
                        planetmars wrote: View Post
                        I don't gamble, but aren't the odds dependent on what Vegas thinks people will vote and not what they believe will be the actual win total? Maybe they suspect NY fans to bet on the Knicks driving up their price, so they gave them a higher win count then they really expect? And Toronto a somewhat modest win count because they don't get as many betters?
                        It's less about the volume of bets than it is having the book balanced. New York and LA might be inflated due to a lot of fans hammering the over, so they have it high enough that more skeptical bettors take the under. I doubt the interest in Toronto ranks high enough to move the needle either way.
                        It’s Ogugua season. Time to gugua.

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                        • #13
                          What about those title odds? On par with the Pacers and behind the Heat and the Wizards? I don't think I'm a fan boy, but I think this year's team is getting a bit of disrespect - maybe because of the playoff flame-out. They were getting a little more credit as an "up and coming team" going into last season on the heels of the 7 game Brooklyn series.
                          "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                          • #14
                            S.R. wrote: View Post
                            What about those title odds? On par with the Pacers and behind the Heat and the Wizards? I don't think I'm a fan boy, but I think this year's team is getting a bit of disrespect - maybe because of the playoff flame-out. They were getting a little more credit as an "up and coming team" going into last season on the heels of the 7 game Brooklyn series.
                            Our playoffs sweep had a HUGELY negative effect on how Toronto is seen by the rest of the league. This has become more apparent to me over the last few months. So the odds make sense in that sense. Even if they have a lot of wins in the regular season; they're going nowhere in the playoffs being the general thought. And that's from the people who actually think the Raptors make the playoffs.

                            They're going to have a LOT to prove this season.
                            "My biggest concern as a coach is to not confuse winning with progress." - Steve Kerr
                            "If it's unacceptable in defeat, it's unacceptable in victory." - Jeff Van Gundy

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                            • #15
                              S.R. wrote: View Post
                              What about those title odds? On par with the Pacers and behind the Heat and the Wizards? I don't think I'm a fan boy, but I think this year's team is getting a bit of disrespect - maybe because of the playoff flame-out. They were getting a little more credit as an "up and coming team" going into last season on the heels of the 7 game Brooklyn series.
                              There's no such things as respect or disrespect on opening odds.

                              Opening odds are set by trading software which creates probabilistic models of the season.

                              Respect or disrespect is down to the public.

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