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First win total over/under odds released by Vegas sportsbook, Raps at 45.5

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  • #16
    Bulls at 49.5 ---the under might be a good play given injuries to Rose and Dunleavy.

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    • #17
      golden wrote: View Post
      I want the Raps to win it all every year, but wouldn't be totally bummed out if we finished 7-8th, or even missed the playoffs. It would make it easier to package the Raps own pick + Knicks pick to trade up in the draft, or package for a superstar. The debate about a coaching change would also end, assuming it hadn't happened already by mid-season.

      And for some reason, I can see that tanking weeny, Sam Hinkie, drafting Jamal Murray with that annoying cat-ate-the-canary smirk that would make you just want to punch him in the face all the more. We really need to get somebody like Murray - a decent sized wing/guard who can make clutch shots when the game is on the line. Lowry's just too small and Demar doesn't have the clutch gene.
      With such a young team, and Casey still at the helm, pulling a mini-tank if the team struggles out of the gate isn't out of the question. I don't think it will happen, as I don't expect this team to falter, but you never know. Maybe Kyle goes down with injury after we drop a bunch of these road games to start. DeMar plays well but Masai gets a good offer for him. Next thing you know Casey has the rug pulled from under him (and the villagers rejoice) and we're looking at two lotto picks.

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      • #18
        mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
        .....and the raptors select Jamal Murray from the University of Kentucky.
        We just have to pray that Phoenix doesn't have the 6th pick.

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        • #19
          S.R. wrote: View Post
          What about those title odds?
          Let's look at it this way:
          - if we finish around 4th in the division we have a 50% win chance first round
          - we have maybe a 25% chance of beating Cleveland in the second round
          - and let's assume we have a 50% chance of beating the other top team in the east
          - and then assume if we make it to the finals we have a 30% chance against the best from the West

          50% x 25% x 50% x 30% = 1.9% or around 50:1 odds

          So those odds actually sound pretty reasonable ... if you assume we are a 4th place in the east kind of team.

          Now if you think we are a 2nd place in the east kind of team (e.g., 70% chance of winning our first game), or if you think Demarre Carroll can be Lebron's Kryptonite (e.g., 40% chance of beating Cleveland), then you can make an argument that we have around a 4% chance, or 25:1 odds.

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          • #20
            rocwell wrote: View Post
            There's no such things as respect or disrespect on opening odds.

            Opening odds are set by trading software which creates probabilistic models of the season.

            Respect or disrespect is down to the public.
            Isn't it the same thing? Obviously a computer isn't "disrespecting" the Raptors, but the general consensus that the computer is trying to capture and convert into betting odds is just an intermediary step. It's essentially putting a number to the respect/disrespect each team is getting from the public.
            "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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            • #21
              S.R. wrote: View Post
              Isn't it the same thing? Obviously a computer isn't "disrespecting" the Raptors, but the general consensus that the computer is trying to capture and convert into betting odds is just an intermediary step. It's essentially putting a number to the respect/disrespect each team is getting from the public.
              I'm not sure I got your point here?

              Traders do not care about public opinion when it comes to initial odds. You can't put a number on "disrespect" level. It's all about fair analysis. If you suck on the court - you'll be underdog in bookies and traders eyes. Would you call that disrespect?

              What happens next [after opening odds r set] ( price shortening, sharpening ) is down to respect/disrespect or situational changes.
              Last edited by rocwell; Wed Sep 30, 2015, 03:14 PM.

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              • #22
                rocwell wrote: View Post
                I'm not sure I got your point here?

                Traders do not care about public opinion when it comes to initial odds. You can't put a number on "disrespect" level. It's all about fair analysis. If you suck on the court - you'll be underdog in bookies and traders eyes. Would you call that disrespect?

                What happens next [after opening odds r set] ( price shortening, sharpening ) is down to respect/disrespect or situational changes.
                I don't know the math down to the nuts and bolts, I do know the odds makers are trying to divvy up the bets 50/50, right? They expect about half of bettors will take the over and half will take the under. Their prediction is a reflection of what they expect the public (gambling public, at least) opinion will be.

                Feel free to set me straight if I'm missing things with full season odds/predictions.
                "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                • #23
                  Part of the lower figure is that 3 out of the 4 other teams in the Atlantic are expected to win more game this year according to them. Boston +2.5, Brooklyn, -9.5, NY +14.5, Philly +3.5. For those four teams that's 11 more wins. You can do it for the whole Eastern Conference if you'd like, but you get my point. Not just a reflection on the Raps.
                  Two beer away from being two beers away.

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                  • #24
                    S.R. wrote: View Post
                    I don't know the math down to the nuts and bolts, I do know the odds makers are trying to divvy up the bets 50/50, right? They expect about half of bettors will take the over and half will take the under. Their prediction is a reflection of what they expect the public (gambling public, at least) opinion will be.

                    Feel free to set me straight if I'm missing things with full season odds/predictions.
                    Yup. There's a rule in traders world actually... Keep your picks as near as 50/50 as possible or get fired. It doesn't matter who's playing, LeBron vs 76ers or LeBron's team vs Thunder - traders will always set the lines 50/50. Even when they get exposed ( sharps coming in, cash$$, player injury, etc. ) they have to move the line ( or price ) to stay close to 50/50. That's how bookies make profit. Sportsbook would not exist w/o profit margins.

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                    • #25
                      They were so grossly wrong in 2014 for at least half of the teams, why would they be right now?! 45 wins is the safe bet but the Raptors could overachieve and be last year Atlanta (not as good) or under achieve and be last year Charlotte (not as bad).

                      Casey has to work his magic... SMH!

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                      • #26
                        Just Is wrote: View Post
                        Our playoffs sweep had a HUGELY negative effect on how Toronto is seen by the rest of the league. This has become more apparent to me over the last few months. So the odds make sense in that sense. Even if they have a lot of wins in the regular season; they're going nowhere in the playoffs being the general thought. And that's from the people who actually think the Raptors make the playoffs.

                        They're going to have a LOT to prove this season.
                        It's the main reason I think Masai needs to get us close to the conference finals if we're going to have any sort of shot next year in free agency. If we flame out in the playoffs for the third year in a row, we are going to have a terrible time trying to bring in an A-lister or even a B-lister, what with all the other teams with huge amounts of cap space.

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                        • #27
                          Mess wrote: View Post
                          Part of the lower figure is that 3 out of the 4 other teams in the Atlantic are expected to win more game this year according to them. Boston +2.5, Brooklyn, -9.5, NY +14.5, Philly +3.5. For those four teams that's 11 more wins. You can do it for the whole Eastern Conference if you'd like, but you get my point. Not just a reflection on the Raps.
                          Wow, Knicks +14.5? That sounds a bit ridiculous (and I like their moves this Summer), but Knicks fans will still take the over.

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