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Raptors: Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO)

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  • Raptors: Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO)

    ESPN is currently promoting this:

    *FiveThirtyEight's Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is a system that forecasts a player's future performance. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player. All player ages are as of Feb. 1, 2016. Minutes played is prorated to 82 games.

    How does it work?

    Player: Category

    Kyle Lowry: All-Star

    DeMar DeRozan: Average Starter

    DeMarre Carroll: Key Role Player

    Patrick Patterson: Key Role Player

    Jonas Valanciunas: Rotation Player

    Corey Joseph: Rotation Player

    Terrence Ross: Rotation Player

    James Johnson: Key Role Player

    Luis Scola: Defensive Specialist

    Bismack Biyombo: Rotation Player

    Delon Wright: OK prospect

    Norman Powell: Marginal prospect

    Bruno Caboclo: WHO?????

    Anthony Bennett: Project

    Bebe: WHO?????

    Lots to debate there!

  • #2
    Sounds about right
    Only one thing matters: We The Champs.


    • #3
      Really cool.
      Mamba Mentality


      • #4
        Carmelo Anthony: Good starter!!
        Andrea Bargnani: Scrub!!

        Mamba Mentality


        • #5
          Ah yes, defensive specialist, Luis Scola.


          • #6
            I really enjoy advanced stats but these models suffer so much from Garbage In = Garbage Out.

            I mean, 2 of the top 10 players I'd compare Jonas to are definitely Michael Sweetney and Eddy Curry. Lol.


            • #7
              neil paine, our senior sports writer, and i had a lot of debates (which echoed long-running arguments within the broader basketball stat-geek community) about which advanced statistics to use for carmelo before deciding on this bpm/rpm blend. What settled the debate was that the bpm/rpm blend did better than alternatives like per and win shares in a variety of out-of-sample testing.

              However, no all-in-one advanced stat is magic, and this is a source of systematic uncertainty in any nba projection system. If it seems as though carmelo “loves” or “hates” a certain player, it may be because of how bpm and rpm rate the player. for instance, both bpm and rpm rate the raptors’ jonas valanciunas poorly compared with statistics like per. So if valanciunas’s forecast seems pessimistic to you, it’s not because carmelo expects his performance to decline (in fact, carmelo has him getting a little better). It’s because bpm and rpm didn’t evaluate valanciunas as being all that good to begin with.


              • #8
                I'm enjoying the name.


                • #9
                  TRex wrote: View Post
                  Carmelo Anthony: Good starter!!
                  Andrea Bargnani: Scrub!!

                  I died at this. I thought you were paraphrasing. It LITERALLY says that.
                  "My biggest concern as a coach is to not confuse winning with progress." - Steve Kerr
                  "If it's unacceptable in defeat, it's unacceptable in victory." - Jeff Van Gundy


                  • #10


                    • #11


                      • #12
                        It actually says that, by the way.

                        Also, Derrick Favors is listed as a borderline all star. Can we get him like, yesterday?


                        • #13
                          this is kind of a problematic projection tool in that the vast majority of comparables to any nba player are not going to be star players or even good players in the league.

                          In a small amount of playing around with it, it is highly pessimistic about almost every prediction except for guys who put up amazing stats really early on.

                          basically: if you're young, you probably won't be a star player, statistically speaking. if you're older, you'll probably decline.


                          • #14
                            Pretty sweet name. Seriously this is an ESPN product? I imagine CA and his entourage would have something to say about it.


                            • #15

                              Scan this list of franchise players and tell me this model isn't broken. I don't care how smart Nate Silver and co are. If your model produces a list that tells you Elfrid Payton and Marcus Smart will be the 13th/14th most valuable players over the next six seasons, you should check your math.