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Game #9 - Toronto Raptors 119 - Philadelphia 76ers 103

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  • One of the reasons BB finds himself so open is because he plays with PP. Patterson's man is out at the three point line instead of helping in the key. That alone would help KL, DD, and JV in the starting unit - you know, the team's three leading scorers.

    Last night when playing with Scola and JJ vs. the Sixers, JV turned into the key on several post-ups and ran straight into two extra defenders. Those were Scola's and JJ's men. Even when Scola is playing well and PP is shooting like crap, Scola's man does not have to respect his range the way Patterson's does.

    Also, the bench really needs Scola's help. I'd like to see him and CoJo be the focal points there.


    Edit: Scola's numbers, including MPG, FGA, PTS, and TRB are extremely similar this year and last year, a starter in Toronto vs. a bench guy in Indy. He's not being rewarded or punished - he'd be asked to keep doing what he does, you're just lining him up with different guys.

    Also, yeah Patterson needs to play A LOT better - that's needed no matter what unit he's on.

    Edit #2: You know what one number is way off Scola's career average? His FTA are a third of what he usually puts up, and the lowest mark of his career by quite a bit. That's because he's being asked to play as a stretch four - the guy has a very solid post-up game, but the Raps are keeping him away from the basket. You know, where Patterson was born to play.
    Last edited by S.R.; Thu Nov 12, 2015, 03:11 PM.
    "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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    • Scola is shooting better than PP at the mo.

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      • Axel wrote: View Post
        Not really a demotion though. Guy will still finish the game. Gets a bigger role with the 2nd unit. Promotion really.
        Well, neither will finish the game when we have everyone healthy. Finishing lineup will be KL-CoJo-DD-Carroll-JV.
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • I wrote a big article on this earlier in the week on the HQ, but the gist is this:

          Here are the on-court net ratings for the usual starters:

          Jonas Valanciunas: +11.7 (he's been amazing and we'll get to him another week)
          DeMar DeRozan: +8.0
          Kyle Lowry: +7.2
          Luis Scola: +3.8
          DeMarre Carroll: -1.7

          That's five guys close to breaking even or killing it. And here is what it looks like when they play together:

          KL-DD-DC-LS-JV: -1.2 (in 82 minutes played)

          See, that makes no sense. These guys are mostly performing very well and yet together they don't break even.

          Let's look at the pairings of the players involved (presented in order of most minutes played to least).

          KL-DD: +8.5
          KL-DC: +5.6
          KL-JV: +6.5
          DD-JV: +13.7
          DD-DC: +2.7
          DC-JV: +6.5
          KL-LS: +0.6
          DD-LS: +5.7
          LS-JV: +5.4
          DC-LS: -0.2

          So, what does that mean? To start, this all filters out to Lowry being good no matter what, unless he plays with Scola; JV being good no matter what; Carroll being at least decent no matter what, unless he plays with Scola; and DeMar being good no matter what.

          There's a couple "unless he plays with Scola" bits in there that should be concerning.
          So, let's take a look at player pairings for Scola and Patterson and see if we can find a solution here.

          First, Scola's pairings:

          KL: +0.6
          DD: +5.7
          JV: +5.4
          DC: -0.2
          CJ: +26.9
          TR: +13.2
          BB: +19.5

          Scola has played about four times as many minutes with the starters as with the bench, but even in a small sample those bench numbers look really good.

          Now, Patterson's pairings:

          CJ: -7.5
          BB: -6.5
          TR: +1.1
          DD: +16.1
          KL: +16.4
          DC: -9.4
          JV: +28.7

          Now, Carroll's stats are coloured by that insane and insanely overused lineup with all three of Carroll, Ross and Patterson on the floor together. 33 of the 72 minutes DC and PP have played together had Ross sitting beside them, and all three combine for a -25.5 net rating, meaning in minutes where Ross isn't there as well, DC and PP have a net rating of +4.2. What these numbers suggest is that Patterson plays well-to-extremely-well with all of the starters and much worse with the bench.

          For every 5-man lineup, there are 10 two-man combinations (the bench is essentially four players, so there will be six combinations). If you average the two-man combinations' net ratings, you should get an idea how effective that lineup will be together. So let's take a look at the lineups - Casey's version, and what I would argue is infinitely more logical.

          KL-DD-DC-LS-JV: average net rating of all player pairings = +5.5
          CJ-TR-PP-BB: -10.6

          KL-DD-DC-PP-JV: +9.5
          CJ-TR-LS-BB: +1.5

          And that doesn't even include the benefits of the other bench pairings and starter pairings probably improving since they'd be playing in better lineups (for example, the Ross-Joseph pairing may be positive if Ross isn't forced to play on-ball as much).

          Now, this is not foolproof, there will be some adverse effects on Patterson if he plays against starters (though you'd expect a similar boost to Scola against bench players). But I think this shows that it is definitely worth trying, right? Seems like almost overwhelming evidence to me.
          Last edited by DanH; Thu Nov 12, 2015, 06:15 PM.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • How did we play this game boys? I didn't get to watch. It doesn't seem like our defense was too good tonight. Was it still the same old ISO everytime down the court again?
            I relish negativity and disappointment. It is not healthy. Somebody buy me a pony.

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            • GLF wrote: View Post
              How did we play this game boys? I didn't get to watch. It doesn't seem like our defense was too good tonight. Was it still the same old ISO everytime down the court again?
              Terrible in the first quarter, okay in the second quarter, Scola dropped 17 in the third and the Raptors stormed ahead and kept it that way in the 4th.

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              • A.I wrote: View Post
                Terrible in the first quarter, okay in the second quarter, Scola dropped 17 in the third and the Raptors stormed ahead and kept it that way in the 4th.
                Did we move the ball well last night or was it still ISO heavy?
                I relish negativity and disappointment. It is not healthy. Somebody buy me a pony.

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                • I really like how this team is playing on the road so far. The competition is about to get tougher.
                  @Chr1st1anL

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