JimiCliff wrote:
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Managing Minutes - short term vs long term or short sightedness vs vision?
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The other component to the minutes isn't simply injury prevention but the development of the other guys. If we do need to turn to Delon Wright during some important game, wouldn't it be nice to know that he's had some real game experience with the team. Or to simply develop another threat off the bench. Other than Bruno, our young guys aren't getting that many games in the D-League to make up for all the DNP-CDs.Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
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DanH wrote: View Post2% each game. Not 2% for the season. I'm saying it is a 16.4 RAW % reduction in the chance that a player gets injured (on average, of course)."Stop eating your sushi."
"I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
"I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
- Jack Armstrong
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JimiCliff wrote: View PostTrue...but still with the framing, we're talking about a 16.4% reduction of whatever the annual likelihood that a player gets injured is - who knows, maybe 5-15%, depending on the individual. We also neglected to add practice minutes into this, which we should have. That 16.4% reduction will end up being much, much lower.
So a 10% relative reduction (as posited by a 10% reduction in minutes) would mean taking that 85% and reducing it to 76%. 9% raw reduction (the 16 was from the made up 2% number, and might be more in line with reality, in fact, when you factor in multiple injuries for a player).
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DanH wrote: View PostEven ignoring the tired = injury-prone aspect (which is true to at least some degree), a 10% decrease in minutes is a 10% decrease in minutes in which you can get injured, and as such a 10% decrease in injury risk. Even that seems like a good idea. And that's ignoring the tired aspect, which should make that ratio go way up.
Also, we should be cautious about assuming that a characteristic (i.e. minutes) identified as a risk factor for injury is a cause of injury.
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DanH wrote: View PostNo, I'm saying 16.4% raw reduction. Anyway, the odds of a player getting injured and missing at least a game at any point in a season are way higher than 5-15%. Last year 28 of 450 (492 but I'm restricting it to 450 because of roster sizes) players played all 82 games. Only 62 played more than 78 games. There's more like a 15% chance a player DOESN'T get hurt at some point. And that ignores players who got hurt more than once.
So a 10% relative reduction (as posited by a 10% reduction in minutes) would mean taking that 85% and reducing it to 76%. 9% raw reduction (the 16 was from the made up 2% number, and might be more in line with reality, in fact, when you factor in multiple injuries for a player).
I still feel like any juice you get from cutting a player's minutes comes, mostly, from not playing them when they're tired.Last edited by JimiCliff; Wed Feb 10, 2016, 06:02 PM."Stop eating your sushi."
"I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
"I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
- Jack Armstrong
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Scraptor wrote: View Post39 minutes tonight for Lowry and 37 for Demar vs the Timberwolves.
There's a quote for this... To know and not do is not to know.Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
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Scraptor wrote: View Post39 minutes tonight for Lowry and 37 for Demar vs the Timberwolves.
There's a quote for this... To know and not do is not to know.
We still need to win as many games as possible. Atlanta and Boston aren't that far behind.
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Pretty interesting stuff. Not that I want to add fuel to the fire.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14...eaking-playersTwo beer away from being two beers away.
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Mess wrote: View PostPretty interesting stuff. Not that I want to add fuel to the fire.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14...eaking-playersHeir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
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Mess wrote: View PostPretty interesting stuff. Not that I want to add fuel to the fire.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14...eaking-players
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