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Managing Minutes - short term vs long term or short sightedness vs vision?

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  • JimiCliff wrote: View Post
    Right. A 16.4% reduction...of 2%

    Again - nice framing
    2% each game. Not 2% for the season. I'm saying it is a 16.4 RAW % reduction in the chance that a player gets injured (on average, of course).
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • The other component to the minutes isn't simply injury prevention but the development of the other guys. If we do need to turn to Delon Wright during some important game, wouldn't it be nice to know that he's had some real game experience with the team. Or to simply develop another threat off the bench. Other than Bruno, our young guys aren't getting that many games in the D-League to make up for all the DNP-CDs.
      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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      • DanH wrote: View Post
        2% each game. Not 2% for the season. I'm saying it is a 16.4 RAW % reduction in the chance that a player gets injured (on average, of course).
        True...but still with the framing, we're talking about a 16.4% reduction of whatever the annual likelihood that a player gets injured is - who knows, maybe 5-15%, depending on the individual. We also neglected to add practice minutes into this, which we should have. That 16.4% reduction will end up being much, much lower.
        "Stop eating your sushi."
        "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
        "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
        - Jack Armstrong

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        • JimiCliff wrote: View Post
          True...but still with the framing, we're talking about a 16.4% reduction of whatever the annual likelihood that a player gets injured is - who knows, maybe 5-15%, depending on the individual. We also neglected to add practice minutes into this, which we should have. That 16.4% reduction will end up being much, much lower.
          No, I'm saying 16.4% raw reduction. Anyway, the odds of a player getting injured and missing at least a game at any point in a season are way higher than 5-15%. Last year 28 of 450 (492 but I'm restricting it to 450 because of roster sizes) players played all 82 games. Only 62 played more than 78 games. There's more like a 15% chance a player DOESN'T get hurt at some point. And that ignores players who got hurt more than once.

          So a 10% relative reduction (as posited by a 10% reduction in minutes) would mean taking that 85% and reducing it to 76%. 9% raw reduction (the 16 was from the made up 2% number, and might be more in line with reality, in fact, when you factor in multiple injuries for a player).
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • Only raptors republic can turn injuries discussion into mind numbing advanced math
            9 time first team all-RR, First Ballot Hall of Forum

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            • DanH wrote: View Post
              Even ignoring the tired = injury-prone aspect (which is true to at least some degree), a 10% decrease in minutes is a 10% decrease in minutes in which you can get injured, and as such a 10% decrease in injury risk. Even that seems like a good idea. And that's ignoring the tired aspect, which should make that ratio go way up.
              I am not even going to bother considering the math but I am certain it is nowhere near that simple. Yeah, risks generally increase over time, but you're going to have show me some pretty solid evidence that playing 500 minutes as opposed to 550 minutes reduces the probability of an injury in that player by 10%.....

              Also, we should be cautious about assuming that a characteristic (i.e. minutes) identified as a risk factor for injury is a cause of injury.

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              • DanH wrote: View Post
                No, I'm saying 16.4% raw reduction. Anyway, the odds of a player getting injured and missing at least a game at any point in a season are way higher than 5-15%. Last year 28 of 450 (492 but I'm restricting it to 450 because of roster sizes) players played all 82 games. Only 62 played more than 78 games. There's more like a 15% chance a player DOESN'T get hurt at some point. And that ignores players who got hurt more than once.

                So a 10% relative reduction (as posited by a 10% reduction in minutes) would mean taking that 85% and reducing it to 76%. 9% raw reduction (the 16 was from the made up 2% number, and might be more in line with reality, in fact, when you factor in multiple injuries for a player).
                Yeah, when I said 5-15%, I was thinking in my mind about major injuries (10+ games) or injuries that can linger. But I was still way off. Regardless - practice minutes still need to be accounted for, so I don't think cutting a player's game minutes 10% will have much of an effect of the likelihood that they'll suffer an injury.

                I still feel like any juice you get from cutting a player's minutes comes, mostly, from not playing them when they're tired.
                Last edited by JimiCliff; Wed Feb 10, 2016, 06:02 PM.
                "Stop eating your sushi."
                "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
                "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
                - Jack Armstrong

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                • 39 minutes tonight for Lowry and 37 for Demar vs the Timberwolves.

                  There's a quote for this... To know and not do is not to know.

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                  • KeonClark wrote: View Post
                    Only raptors republic can turn injuries discussion into mind numbing advanced math
                    What the hell am I reading

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                    • Scraptor wrote: View Post
                      39 minutes tonight for Lowry and 37 for Demar vs the Timberwolves.

                      There's a quote for this... To know and not do is not to know.
                      And that's with foul trouble...
                      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                      • Scraptor wrote: View Post
                        39 minutes tonight for Lowry and 37 for Demar vs the Timberwolves.

                        There's a quote for this... To know and not do is not to know.
                        The quote is they put us in a dogfight that came down to the wire and we had to play our guys heavy minutes in the 4th.

                        We still need to win as many games as possible. Atlanta and Boston aren't that far behind.

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                        • JWash wrote: View Post
                          We still need to win as many games as possible. Atlanta and Boston aren't that far behind.
                          Still trying to figure out why playoff seeding even matters. We've lost in the first round to a lower seed consecutive seasons.

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                          • Pretty interesting stuff. Not that I want to add fuel to the fire.

                            http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14...eaking-players
                            Two beer away from being two beers away.

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                            • Mess wrote: View Post
                              Pretty interesting stuff. Not that I want to add fuel to the fire.

                              http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14...eaking-players
                              Great share.
                              Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                              If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                              • Mess wrote: View Post
                                Pretty interesting stuff. Not that I want to add fuel to the fire.

                                http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14...eaking-players
                                Doesn't really add fuel to the fire. This is more of an attack on the grueling NBA schedule and the lack of sleep leading to exhaustion and its effect on health and performance.

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