Managing Minutes - short term vs long term or short sightedness vs vision?

[DanH]

No we don't.

2013-14: Played 36.2mpg, then played very well in the playoffs averaging 20-4-4 on 57 TS%. (Doesn't fit)
2014-15: Played less minutes at 34.5mpg, then got hurt before playoffs and played terribly. (Doesn't fit)
2015-16: Played 37.0mpg, then got hurt before playoffs and played terribly. (Fits)

So we have one season where it happened not three, so it's really hard to make any conclusive judgment from that especially given how genuinely unlucky the injury was.

2014-15 absolutely fits. He averaged 35 MPG (well above the number most were hoping for, closer to 32), including the key stretch of averaging 36 MPG when DD was hurt, got injured in January (and stayed injured all year), and averaged fewer minutes late in the year when they were trying to rest him a bit to recover from the injuries (though he never really got enough rest and was still very hurt at the end of the year).

2013-14 doesn't fit. But considering he was 3 years younger then than he is now, I'd think the two most recent seasons of overuse are more relevant.

[Barolt]

But how is that "clear"? We don't know that his injuries were caused by playing too many minutes. Last year was a freak accident where he banged his elbow too hard after a fall. That literally could have happened at any moment.

I think it's a big leap to just claim that Lowry's minutes in the regular season are why he doesn't play well in the playoffs when he played just as many minutes in 2013-14 as last year (and more than 2014-15) and went to town on the Nets anyway.

You left out a few things here!

Last year he injured himself in January, and then led the league in minutes from then til the end of the season.

Everyone gets a few bangs and bruises over the course of the season, how much you play has a significant impact n your ability to recover.

[Lupe]

2014-15 absolutely fits. He averaged 35 MPG (well above the number most were hoping for, closer to 32), including the key stretch of averaging 36 MPG when DD was hurt, got injured in January (and stayed injured all year), and averaged fewer minutes late in the year when they were trying to rest him a bit to recover from the injuries (though he never really got enough rest and was still very hurt at the end of the year).

2013-14 doesn't fit. But considering he was 3 years younger then than he is now, I'd think the two most recent seasons of overuse are more relevant.

I don't think 2014-15 fits at all. You were saying earlier that you have an issue with him playing more than other team's stars, well that year he was 20th in minutes per game. Almost every other playoff team's top player played more minutes per game than him.

CLE: LeBron 36.1, Kyrie 36.4
WSH: Wall 35.9
CHI: Butler 38.7
BKN: Johnson 34.9
NO: Davis 36.1
POR: Aldridge 35.4, Lillard 35.7
LAC: Blake 35.2, CP3 34.8
HOU: Harden 36.8, Ariza 35.7

So no it doesn't fit the description.

[Lupe]

We have 3.

We lost to the Nets despite being the better team.

We got embarrassed by the Wiz despite being the better team.

We had our two best players play like our 8th and 15th best players for a lot of last year.

3 disappointing performances. 3 playoffs where we haven't had our best players play their best. If we want to beat the Cavs, then we need to have our best players play their best. This isn't solely a Lowry issue, it's about what's best for the team. There is no way to have the proof, in either way, so you have to chose to take the leap of faith or not. Popovich has taken that leap and I choose to follow rather than risk missing out while we have the opportunity. Lowry isn't going to get younger or likely better than he is now.

We're talking specifically about (mis-)managing Lowry's minutes leading to reduced performance in the playoffs. There's only one case that even fits the parameters of that (high minutes and bad playoff performance) and that was last season. So again there aren't 3 years of data on it.

[DanH]

I don't think 2014-15 fits at all. You were saying earlier that you have an issue with him playing more than other team's stars, well that year he was 20th in minutes per game. Almost every other playoff team's top player played more minutes per game than him.

CLE: LeBron 36.1, Kyrie 36.4
WSH: Wall 35.9
CHI: Butler 38.7
BKN: Johnson 34.9
NO: Davis 36.1
POR: Aldridge 35.4, Lillard 35.7
LAC: Blake 35.2, CP3 34.8
HOU: Harden 36.8, Ariza 35.7

So no it doesn't fit the description.

My point was that if the argument many are making is that he should be playing like 32 MPG, then him playing more than any other star in the league is a huge issue. That doesn't mean him playing 36 MPG at the time of his injury is not a big issue.

[Axel]

We're talking specifically about (mis-)managing Lowry's minutes leading to reduced performance in the playoffs. There's only one case that even fits the parameters of that (high minutes and bad playoff performance) and that was last season. So again there aren't 3 years of data on it.

Actually, I don't think that is entirely the case. When the thread was created 12 months ago, it was using the example of Lowry as an area of concern, but the underlying theory that supports less minutes is definitely not exclusive to Lowry and the examples provided from other teams would certainly not be speaking to Lowry. So while Lowry was the key element at the time last year (thus having the poll about him with all the options garnering votes - no matter how unfair you feel one option was) it's an issue that is much bigger than simply Kyle Lowry. A main component is the opportunity and development of players at the edge of the rotation being prepared to take on bigger roles if need be; that certainly has nothing to do with Lowry except as a by-product of where to pull the minutes from.

[3inthekeon]

Bit of a whoop-de-do, but after the 2 blowouts, Kyle is no longer leading the league in MP/GM. Now 2nd at 37.3 to Harrison Barnes' 37.5.

[tDotted]

Bit of a whoop-de-do, but after the 2 blowouts, Kyle is no longer leading the league in MP/GM. Now 2nd at 37.3 to Harrison Barnes' 37.5.

Expect those minutes to go right back up vs the Cavs

[Chefff]

Expect those minutes to go right back up vs the Cavs

Yeah, but he should be feeling good after the 2 blowouts. If there is ever a regular season game where I am ok with him playing 38-40 minutes (which he almost definitely will, barring injury or a blowout), it's this one.

[Lupe]

Was listening to the Dunc'd on podcast and they mentioned that LeBron pointed out that it's not really minutes that are the issue moreso just playing the game. So sitting out games is what really makes the impact in terms of recovery.

I think if we really want to use minute management to keep Lowry fresh it's not so much about his playing time rather than just simply holding him out on occasion. Not sure we can afford to do that like Cleveland though because we really need that #1 seed to have any chance of beating them.

[jimmie]

Was listening to the Dunc'd on podcast and they mentioned that LeBron pointed out that it's not really minutes that are the issue moreso just playing the game. So sitting out games is what really makes the impact in terms of recovery.

I think if we really want to use minute management to keep Lowry fresh it's not so much about his playing time rather than just simply holding him out on occasion. Not sure we can afford to do that like Cleveland though because we really need that #1 seed to have any chance of beating them.

The whole minutes management thing is completely unproven, though, from a scientific standpoint. Maybe it will be proven, one day, but right now, there's no compelling proof that it's actually a worthwhile strategy. I think it's mostly a trend based on worship of Pop and everything he's done to make SAS a successful franchise.

And the 'fans not getting to see stars' argument against sitting players, to me, makes sense. I think it's BS that these guys take days off when they're not injured. Kobe suggested maybe they should play fewer games total or something, which to me makes more sense -- his point was less about avoiding injury/staying 'fresh' and more about the idea that if guys are well rested, they'll be able to put on a better show for the fans.

If this is really an issue of 'player safety' that resonates with the management of enough teams, then it's something the league itself should address, not leave it up to arbitrary individual decisions that take away from the basic reason for the existence of the business: entertaining fans.

[JawsGT]

The whole minutes management thing is completely unproven, though, from a scientific standpoint. Maybe it will be proven, one day, but right now, there's no compelling proof that it's actually a worthwhile strategy. I think it's mostly a trend based on worship of Pop and everything he's done to make SAS a successful franchise.

And the 'fans not getting to see stars' argument against sitting players, to me, makes sense. I think it's BS that these guys take days off when they're not injured. Kobe suggested maybe they should play fewer games total or something, which to me makes more sense -- his point was less about avoiding injury/staying 'fresh' and more about the idea that if guys are well rested, they'll be able to put on a better show for the fans.

If this is really an issue of 'player safety' that resonates with the management of enough teams, then it's something the league itself should address, not leave it up to arbitrary individual decisions that take away from the basic reason for the existence of the business: entertaining fans.

IT can be remedied mostly through better scheduling IMO. No back to backs, 4 games in 5 nights are a definite no no. Shorten the preseason and add a week to the schedule and I'm sure guys would be less likely to take games off. REcovery is important, so they should have better opportunity to do so.

[mike, prague]

IT can be remedied mostly through better scheduling IMO. No back to backs, 4 games in 5 nights are a definite no no. Shorten the preseason and add a week to the schedule and I'm sure guys would be less likely to take games off. REcovery is important, so they should have better opportunity to do so.

Yeah I watch like one pucks game a year (occasionally), but I believe they also have an 82 game schedule and I know they stretch the season out like an accordion ... I think something like that would do wonders for the NBA.

It would lead to more competitive games possibly, because teams would have A) more time to game plan B) places would be more rested C) more time for practice.

But the league would have to raise the number of days players get off of course. Otherwise coaches would just practice everyday, which I suppose wouldn't help too too much fix the situation.