Lupe wrote:
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Managing Minutes - short term vs long term or short sightedness vs vision?
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Barolt wrote: View PostThe thing is, and a few studies have shown this, even 'freak accident' injuries are more likely in players who are tired from playing too much. There's been a few studies done on this.Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.
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jimmie wrote: View PostYes, fatigue increases injury risk. Now you just have to prove that Lowry's minutes are significantly increasing his fatigue.
To your point let's look at last year:
-Lowry was playing lots and lots of minutes. The same discussion was happening last year.
-Lowry then got injured in the second half of the year. And kept playing.
-Lowry got off to an awful start in the playoffs. Some stats indicated it was among the worst performances in the history of the NBA playoffs.
These things could of course be a coincidence. But perhaps he was worn out.
Now--I'm not suggesting the raps beat the cavs with a healthy Lowry last year. But maybe the Heat/Pacers series's don't go 7 games and the team is more rested going into the Cleveland series.
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jimmie wrote: View PostYes, fatigue increases injury risk. Now you just have to prove that Lowry's minutes are significantly increasing his fatigue.Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
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The question is whether any risk reduction from a slight decrease in minutes outweighs the possible dip in regular season performance for the team. Very difficult to say what that is, but this is definitely not a cut and dry issue and I think the team does look at both sides of that coin.
The poll is pretty unfair by the way. The first option makes anyone selecting it look kind of ridiculous. It's not about riding him hard or that he's our only hope. It's playing him the minutes he's capable of playing because he's the best and most impactful player on the team (although this season he would rank 3rd so far).
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Lupe wrote: View PostThe question is whether any risk reduction from a slight decrease in minutes outweighs the possible dip in regular season performance for the team. Very difficult to say what that is, but this is definitely not a cut and dry issue and I think the team does look at both sides of that coin.
The poll is pretty unfair by the way. The first option makes anyone selecting it look kind of ridiculous. It's not about riding him hard or that he's our only hope. It's playing him the minutes he's capable of playing because he's the best and most impactful player on the team (although this season he would rank 3rd so far).twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle
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Lupe wrote: View PostThe question is whether any risk reduction from a slight decrease in minutes outweighs the possible dip in regular season performance for the team. Very difficult to say what that is, but this is definitely not a cut and dry issue and I think the team does look at both sides of that coin.
The poll is pretty unfair by the way. The first option makes anyone selecting it look kind of ridiculous. It's not about riding him hard or that he's our only hope. It's playing him the minutes he's capable of playing because he's the best and most impactful player on the team (although this season he would rank 3rd so far).
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Until we've seen our best players play their best in the playoffs, I don't understand how anyone can be dismissive of this notion. Especially since top teams like San Antonio have been leading the charge. Our playoff play has been disappointing in some fashion in each of the last 3 years. This could help in that regard and there really isn't any downside that I've seen presented.Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
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Barolt wrote: View PostClearly, from the last two seasons, he's not capable of playing these minutes over the stretch of the season. The question is whether you want Lowry to peak now, or in April/May/June?Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.
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jimmie wrote: View PostIt's not clear at all. He got hurt. You don't have any data that says he got hurt because he played those minutes and would have stayed healthy had he played 4-6 minutes less per game. That's not how math works.
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/...vent-injuries/
I know, I know. I'm the author of that piece, but... when doing research for it I ran into pretty much no counter-arguments to the idea that minutes cause injuries.twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle
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jimmie wrote: View PostIt's not clear at all. He got hurt. You don't have any data that says he got hurt because he played those minutes and would have stayed healthy had he played 4-6 minutes less per game. That's not how math works.Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
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Barolt wrote: View PostClearly, from the last two seasons, he's not capable of playing these minutes over the stretch of the season. The question is whether you want Lowry to peak now, or in April/May/June?
I think it's a big leap to just claim that Lowry's minutes in the regular season are why he doesn't play well in the playoffs when he played just as many minutes in 2013-14 as last year (and more than 2014-15) and went to town on the Nets anyway.
DanH wrote: View PostI think it's fair to question the results when literally every other team in the league is doing the same impact/rest calculus for their stars and coming up with fewer minutes played for them.
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Axel wrote: View PostThere's no evidence proving otherwise either. But there are a lot of great basketball minds including the greatest coach of all time that believes in the theory and frankly, that alone is enough evidence to consider it. We have 3 seasons of not worry about it and didn't get the performances we wanted in April. Maybe it's time to accept the possibility and try to follow suit of the best basketball mind available today.
2013-14: Played 36.2mpg, then played very well in the playoffs averaging 20-4-4 on 57 TS%. (Doesn't fit)
2014-15: Played less minutes at 34.5mpg, then got hurt before playoffs and played terribly. (Doesn't fit)
2015-16: Played 37.0mpg, then got hurt before playoffs and played terribly. (Fits)
So we have one season where it happened not three, so it's really hard to make any conclusive judgment from that especially given how genuinely unlucky the injury was.
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Lupe wrote: View PostNo we don't.
2013-14: Played 36.2mpg, then played very well in the playoffs averaging 20-4-4 on 57 TS%. (Doesn't fit)
2014-15: Played less minutes at 34.5mpg, then got hurt before playoffs and played terribly. (Doesn't fit)
2015-16: Played 37.0mpg, then got hurt before playoffs and played terribly. (Fits)
So we have one season where it happened not three, so it's really hard to make any conclusive judgment from that especially given how genuinely unlucky the injury was.
We lost to the Nets despite being the better team.
We got embarrassed by the Wiz despite being the better team.
We had our two best players play like our 8th and 15th best players for a lot of last year.
3 disappointing performances. 3 playoffs where we haven't had our best players play their best. If we want to beat the Cavs, then we need to have our best players play their best. This isn't solely a Lowry issue, it's about what's best for the team. There is no way to have the proof, in either way, so you have to chose to take the leap of faith or not. Popovich has taken that leap and I choose to follow rather than risk missing out while we have the opportunity. Lowry isn't going to get younger or likely better than he is now.Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
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