Managing Minutes - short term vs long term or short sightedness vs vision?

[Lupe]

Clearly, from the last two seasons, he's not capable of playing these minutes over the stretch of the season. The question is whether you want Lowry to peak now, or in April/May/June?

But how is that "clear"? We don't know that his injuries were caused by playing too many minutes. Last year was a freak accident where he banged his elbow too hard after a fall. That literally could have happened at any moment.

I think it's a big leap to just claim that Lowry's minutes in the regular season are why he doesn't play well in the playoffs when he played just as many minutes in 2013-14 as last year (and more than 2014-15) and went to town on the Nets anyway.

I think it's fair to question the results when literally every other team in the league is doing the same impact/rest calculus for their stars and coming up with fewer minutes played for them.

I said the poll was unfair not premise/question of the thread. Obviously it's fair to question whether playing him less minutes would help him avoid injury. But to assert that it's the actual fundamental reason for his poor performance in the playoffs is a stretch.

[McRealistic]

Coach Casey really needs to reduce the minutes for KL and DD this year. The goal should not be wining more games but to do good in the play offs.

Let JV and Cojo carry some of the weight and see if they are able to without DD and KL taking some pressure away from them.

[Axel]

It's not clear at all. He got hurt. You don't have any data that says he got hurt because he played those minutes and would have stayed healthy had he played 4-6 minutes less per game. That's not how math works.

There's no evidence proving otherwise either. But there are a lot of great basketball minds including the greatest coach of all time that believes in the theory and frankly, that alone is enough evidence to consider it. We have 3 seasons of not worry about it and didn't get the performances we wanted in April. Maybe it's time to accept the possibility and try to follow suit of the best basketball mind available today.

[Barolt]

It's not clear at all. He got hurt. You don't have any data that says he got hurt because he played those minutes and would have stayed healthy had he played 4-6 minutes less per game. That's not how math works.

http://www.sloansportsconference.com...BA-players.pdf

http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/...vent-injuries/



I know, I know. I'm the author of that piece, but... when doing research for it I ran into pretty much no counter-arguments to the idea that minutes cause injuries.

[jimmie]

Clearly, from the last two seasons, he's not capable of playing these minutes over the stretch of the season. The question is whether you want Lowry to peak now, or in April/May/June?

It's not clear at all. He got hurt. You don't have any data that says he got hurt because he played those minutes and would have stayed healthy had he played 4-6 minutes less per game. That's not how math works.

[Axel]

Until we've seen our best players play their best in the playoffs, I don't understand how anyone can be dismissive of this notion. Especially since top teams like San Antonio have been leading the charge. Our playoff play has been disappointing in some fashion in each of the last 3 years. This could help in that regard and there really isn't any downside that I've seen presented.

[DanH]

The question is whether any risk reduction from a slight decrease in minutes outweighs the possible dip in regular season performance for the team. Very difficult to say what that is, but this is definitely not a cut and dry issue and I think the team does look at both sides of that coin.

The poll is pretty unfair by the way. The first option makes anyone selecting it look kind of ridiculous. It's not about riding him hard or that he's our only hope. It's playing him the minutes he's capable of playing because he's the best and most impactful player on the team (although this season he would rank 3rd so far).

I think it's fair to question the results when literally every other team in the league is doing the same impact/rest calculus for their stars and coming up with fewer minutes played for them.

[Barolt]

The question is whether any risk reduction from a slight decrease in minutes outweighs the possible dip in regular season performance for the team. Very difficult to say what that is, but this is definitely not a cut and dry issue and I think the team does look at both sides of that coin.

The poll is pretty unfair by the way. The first option makes anyone selecting it look kind of ridiculous. It's not about riding him hard or that he's our only hope. It's playing him the minutes he's capable of playing because he's the best and most impactful player on the team (although this season he would rank 3rd so far).

Clearly, from the last two seasons, he's not capable of playing these minutes over the stretch of the season. The question is whether you want Lowry to peak now, or in April/May/June?

[Lupe]

The question is whether any risk reduction from a slight decrease in minutes outweighs the possible dip in regular season performance for the team. Very difficult to say what that is, but this is definitely not a cut and dry issue and I think the team does look at both sides of that coin.

The poll is pretty unfair by the way. The first option makes anyone selecting it look kind of ridiculous. It's not about riding him hard or that he's our only hope. It's playing him the minutes he's capable of playing because he's the best and most impactful player on the team (although this season he would rank 3rd so far).

[Axel]

Yes, fatigue increases injury risk. Now you just have to prove that Lowry's minutes are significantly increasing his fatigue.

Is it really a stretch? A player playing more would be more fatigued than a player playing less, that's obvious. Figuring out the optimal playing point is debatable for sure but either way it's worth exploring and there is a reason that top teams do it.

[Rudy Bargnani]

Yes, fatigue increases injury risk. Now you just have to prove that Lowry's minutes are significantly increasing his fatigue.

I would like to see his minutes reduced.

To your point let's look at last year:
-Lowry was playing lots and lots of minutes. The same discussion was happening last year.
-Lowry then got injured in the second half of the year. And kept playing.
-Lowry got off to an awful start in the playoffs. Some stats indicated it was among the worst performances in the history of the NBA playoffs.

These things could of course be a coincidence. But perhaps he was worn out.

Now--I'm not suggesting the raps beat the cavs with a healthy Lowry last year. But maybe the Heat/Pacers series's don't go 7 games and the team is more rested going into the Cleveland series.

[jimmie]

The thing is, and a few studies have shown this, even 'freak accident' injuries are more likely in players who are tired from playing too much. There's been a few studies done on this.

Yes, fatigue increases injury risk. Now you just have to prove that Lowry's minutes are significantly increasing his fatigue.

[Barolt]

Just seems like such a negligible reason. I'd like his minutes to go down but only because I want to see Powell and Wright (when he comes back) play more in the regular season. I don't think dropping a couple minutes is going to have any impact on his health, injuries are generally freak accidents particularly the ones that Lowry's had which weren't wear and tear but came from isolated incidents (like the elbow last year when he slammed it hard after a fall).

The thing is, and a few studies have shown this, even 'freak accident' injuries are more likely in players who are tired from playing too much. There's been a few studies done on this.

[Lupe]

It's a matter of risk. He got to the playoffs healthy in 13-14. Not so in the past two years (though better last year than the year before). Playing more is a risk factor for health. He obviously has to play a bunch - but he certainly doesn't need to play more than anyone else in the entire league.

Just seems like such a negligible reason. I'd like his minutes to go down but only because I want to see Powell and Wright (when he comes back) play more in the regular season. I don't think dropping a couple minutes is going to have any impact on his health, injuries are generally freak accidents particularly the ones that Lowry's had which weren't wear and tear but came from isolated incidents (like the elbow last year when he slammed it hard after a fall).

[DanH]

Is managing minutes what will get Lowry to finally have a good performance in the playoffs? Cause he actually had a drop in minutes from 13-14 to 14-15 and his playoff performance in the former was way better.

It's a matter of risk. He got to the playoffs healthy in 13-14. Not so in the past two years (though better last year than the year before). Playing more is a risk factor for health. He obviously has to play a bunch - but he certainly doesn't need to play more than anyone else in the entire league.