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The average NBA contract will be around 10M/year moving forwards

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  • The average NBA contract will be around 10M/year moving forwards

    Wasn't sure where else to post this, but just thought I'd do it to help give some perspective on contracts that have been handed out and will be handed out in the future.

    In the NBA the average player contract is usually around 10% of the salary cap. Which makes sense since you usually have about 15 guys on a roster, the cheapest 5 are usually minimums or rookie deals and the remaining 10 would split the rest (I know every team is not exactly at the cap, but if you average all 30 teams payrolls out it usually comes to somewhere around there). With the cap projected to average out at around 100M over the next 4-5 seasons or so, it makes sense that the average player salary should reach $10M.

    This has a lot of ramifications when looking at some of the deals our guys have gotten. You look at a guy like CoJo who's going to be making ~$7.5M for 2 years in the new cap environment before his PO kicks in and realize that is a complete steal for a player of his caliber. Then you look at Ross, who many think we overpaid but really he was given what's going to be an average contract after about 2017 or so. Carroll's only making an above average salary, not anything crazy.

    It's interesting because as recently as like 2010 the average player salary would've been around $5M with top players making upwards of $10M and the mid-max being in the mid teens. Now we're going to see an average of $10M with top players making upwards of $20M and the mid-max being in the high 20s. It's really a significant financial change that's coming to the NBA.

  • #2
    The average salary has been trending closer to 8-9% over the past half decade, with an average since 2011-12 of 8.8%.

    8.8% means, over the next few summers, an average salary of:
    2016: 7.8M
    2017: 9.5M
    2018: 8.8M
    2019: 8.9M
    2020: 9.4M

    For an average over that span of 8.9M.

    And that's based on the same proportion. The average salary will most certainly NOT maintain the same proportion, as salaries simply cannot keep up with the rising cap. The average salary in the next two seasons will be much lower than those projections, as teams will struggle to be over the cap. Usually there's a 12% overrun on the cap on average but that could disappear or even get into the negatives. But if we assume it goes to a 0% overrun for the first 2 years, that drops the average salary to 7M and 8.5M in those two years. Meaning an average-average-salary over the next 5 years of 8.5M.

    I think 10M is misrepresenting it a little. Though the context adjustment is worth making, 8.5M is still far higher than the past half decade of about 5.5M.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • #3
      JWash wrote: View Post
      It's interesting because as recently as like 2010 the average player salary would've been around $5M with top players making upwards of $10M and the mid-max being in the mid teens. Now we're going to see an average of $10M with top players making upwards of $20M and the mid-max being in the high 20s. It's really a significant financial change that's coming to the NBA.
      In 2010, Kobe Bryant made 25M. The other top ten salaries were in the 17-20M range.

      In 2009, Kobe made 23M. The other top ten salaries were in the 17-23M range, with 4 other players above 20M.

      It's a huge increase, but not quite the increase that paragraph paints it as.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • #4
        Welp thread debunked, good points DanH.

        Although I will say idk if using Kobe's money as a reference point means much though, since LeBron will likely have the same kind of distance between the other highest paid guys.

        Nonetheless I didn't really put enough research into that as I should've.

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        • #5
          The way exceptions are set will need to be changed. If the avg salary is double the MLE, teams can't live over the cap. Only scrubs will be at MLE

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          • #6
            Interesting thread and some good discussion. Although not statistically accurate, I tend to consider the MLE to be the 'average' salary for 'average' players. Rookies, vets and bench filler make less than MLE, while good players make more. It may not have the support of such things as math, facts or truth, but it's usually a pretty good benchmark for player/salary discussions.

            * based on the assumption that the MLE will rise in accordance with the new cap, which is what I thought I remember reading

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            • #7
              I'm sure the 2017 CBA negotiations will be correcting things like the minimum and MLE salaries with the rising cap, possibly rookie scale salaries too. Possibly tying them to the cap, possibly just increasing the values.

              That said, at the moment the MLE values are fixed and will not be rising with the cap barring a renegotiation of the CBA.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • #8
                JWash wrote: View Post
                Welp thread debunked, good points DanH.

                Although I will say idk if using Kobe's money as a reference point means much though, since LeBron will likely have the same kind of distance between the other highest paid guys.

                Nonetheless I didn't really put enough research into that as I should've.
                Did not look to debunk - the point is a valid one, it was only the specifics that were off. It is true we need to re-adjust our average salary expectations from mid-5M or so to mid-8M, and it is a good topic to broach.
                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                • #9
                  DanH wrote: View Post
                  Did not look to debunk - the point is a valid one, it was only the specifics that were off. It is true we need to re-adjust our average salary expectations from mid-5M or so to mid-8M, and it is a good topic to broach.
                  Oh I'm not saying you were, I'm happy you raised those points, like I said I kind of just looked at past averages and extrapolated but you can't really do that so it makes sense what you wrote.

                  Probably should change the thread to "the average salary is going to be a lot more than it has been in the past". I think my main point was that a guy like Ross didn't really get a big contract, it would've been like paying him 6M or so per year in the late '00s early '10s. And someone like CoJo basically got robbed blind by Masai lol.

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                  • #10
                    I'd be curious to know what the average new salary is each year, and how that will trend going forward. To me that's the meaningful number. (Take Ross, for example; his extension will be more than the average NBA player makes next year. But it might also be less than the average salary signed next offseason (or it might not)).

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                    • #11
                      octothorp wrote: View Post
                      I'd be curious to know what the average new salary is each year, and how that will trend going forward. To me that's the meaningful number. (Take Ross, for example; his extension will be more than the average NBA player makes next year. But it might also be less than the average salary signed next offseason (or it might not)).
                      That's a good question actually, not sure how to get that number though without taking the 1st year of every deal signed by every free agent and averaging them though lol.

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                      • #12
                        Does anyone have any idea what the average salary is now?

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                        • #13
                          rightsideup wrote: View Post
                          Does anyone have any idea what the average salary is now?
                          http://www.basketball-reference.com/...s/players.html

                          2015-16 Salary Cap: $70,000,000 (Salary Cap History)

                          Average Salary: $4,606,182
                          Median Salary: $2,500,000

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                          • #14
                            That "average salary" is not the one defined in the CBA. It is heavily skewed by large numbers of 14th and 15th men at the minimum. Per the CBA the average salary is defined as 1/13.2 of the average total salary for a team (which is total salaries / 30).

                            The current projection of the average salary for this season is 5.739M.
                            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                            • #15
                              HOODOO!!! THA DATA STATS CREW WENT TO WORK!!! BIG UPS JWASH, DANH, AND PLANETMARS

                              THA D.S.C.(Data Stats Crew) SHUTDOWN THE ASSOCIATIONS SNEAKYNESS AND EXPOSED THE SALARY AVERAGES

                              THA BROTHAS OF THA GOOD(Toronto) WERE THINKING







                              THE REAL SALARY AVERAGES? THEY THOUGHT THE CBA WAS SUSPECT!!!





                              THEN THA D.S.C.(data stats crew) THOUGHT




                              AND THE DATA STATS CREW SAID.."THEY ON IT!!!"



                              THA GOOD BROTHAS AGREED NEVER DOUBTING PART OF THA CREW CALLED D.S.C.(Data Stats Crew)



                              THEN DANH, JWASH,AND PLANETMARS PUT INSIDE WORK FINDING INFO THAT FLOW AND THA GOOD WAS A GLOW


                              WHAT!!! THA D.S.C. AINT NO JOKE,GEEK SQUAD STRAIGHT SHOOTERS!!!

                              THEY GET INTO THE RHYTHM SHOT!!!



                              AND THEY AUTOMATIC, NOT EVEN LOOKING!!! Bahahahaha


                              SWISH!!!

                              THA D.S.C.(Data Stats Crew) GEEK SQUAD THEY DON'T PLAY





                              BURN DOWN THE SIX, BUILD UP THE SEVEN... JESUS CHRIST LOVES ALL




                              Romans 10:9
                              If you confess with your mouth that Jesus is Lord
                              and believe in your heart that God raised him from the dead, you will be saved.
                              Last edited by CB4Champ; Fri Dec 25, 2015, 01:44 AM.

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