Game #34: Toronto Raptors 104 - Charlotte Hornets 94

[DanH]

I fixed that for you.

I refuse to stoop to text indicators when it is that obvious. But thank you.

[mcHAPPY]

I refuse to stoop to text indicators when it is that obvious. But thank you.

Fair enough.

And you're welcome.

[Demographic Shift]

Jonas Valanciunas has an on-court net rating of +19.5 in 4th Q's this season (in 73 minutes over his 15 games played, about 5 minutes per game).

Bismack Biyombo has an on-court net rating of -0.2 in 4th Q's this season (in 184 minutes over his 28 games played, about 6.5 minutes per game).

Clearly Jonas cannot finish games, and Biyombo is the key to crunch time success.

How does the stat account for "offense / defense " substitutions ?
Biz more likely to play defense when he gets scored on and JV more likely to play offense when the scoring gets done. Might that not skew this study ?

[KHD]

the biyombo train has gone way off the fucking rails. Like, you don't even have to look beyond a single game (which i'd have thought would have made it a lot easier for you anti-statistics people) to see the MASSIVE problems with him.

Did you not see the raptors fall apart the second he stepped on the floor in the first 3 quarters? He had a good 4th quarter. As did the raps, but overall that was more to do with Patterson et. al. hitting shots.

[consmap]

It doesn't necessarily make your view wrong, but it does make my view stronger .
Especially considering that this has been a problem for multiple years in a row. JV is not good enough to play in the 4th. He's a liability on defense .

Wait. Honestly what is your opinion? Why isn't JV playing ? If all the stats are so obvious , if JV > bb then why isn't he playing ? Why isn't Stackhouse informing DC? demar and kyle must know this info.
Are they all scared of Dwayne ?

Could you be wrong ?

I think Dwane Casey just wants a center whose only job is to clean up other players' mistakes and not take away touches from his main guys. Biyombo excels at being just a defensive garbage man alone, while JV is capable of more. The problem is that our perimeter players take up most of the team's touches and are inconsistent with keeping their man in front of them. Biyombo looks good, because during his time on the floor he's able to do all of the things he's good at without needing the ball at all. He's able to showcase his skill set without being involved in what the rest of the team is doing on offense. JV is hardly given the opportunity to maximize his skill set, because he also brings a number of offensive skills to the table along with his defensive capabilities. The team is known to ignore him on post ups, rolls, dump offs, etc. and there are too many games where he has to feed himself on put backs.

Does BB play defense and rebound better than JV? Maybe. But even if BB is better than JV at those things, he isn't that much better that he should be taking away 4th quarter minutes from him.

This is just me, but people are acting like JV is hurting the team with his shortcomings and isn't playing very well. In the past 2 games he put up 8 and 9, then 10 and 13 in limited minutes. To top things off he was actually struggling on offense a bit last night, going 3-9 from the field because he missed some bunnies. Sometimes it's hard to notice when he's doing a good job because he isn't flying through the air grabbing rebounds and swatting the ball away, he's positioning himself under the basket and using his size and length to get the job done (I've said this a lot).

[Eliza]

No, I'm not wrong on this one.


The bold is the nonsense spewed by Casey over the last 4 years. Clearly if you say enough falsehoods often enough, they start to take root with some to the point they become truth.


Edit: as for all your questions. Casey just doesn't trust and/or like JV as a player. Nothing new to that. It is why he stuck with Salmons, Bargnani, Gay, etc. when all the evidence pointed to why he shouldn't. I don't believe Casey to be a reflective practitioner. He goes with his gut and he is stubborn to the point of defiance (2011 championship ring anyone?).

Nonsense? So you're saying Masai, and his team, are also idiots you swallow this nonsense?

Jonas Valanciunas has an on-court net rating of +19.5 in 4th Q's this season (in 73 minutes over his 15 games played, about 5 minutes per game).

Bismack Biyombo has an on-court net rating of -0.2 in 4th Q's this season (in 184 minutes over his 28 games played, about 6.5 minutes per game).

Clearly Jonas cannot finish games, and Biyombo is the key to crunch time success.

Numbers hardly ever tell the whole story, and these certainly don't. Crunch time defensive line-ups is more often than not match-up based, and we have no idea how well either of them would have done in the others' minutes against the same line-ups.

More important numbers are 21-13 with significant time missed by 2 starters, and a very tough early schedule. Casey can't possibly be the idiot some portray him as, else Masai is too.

Note the interesting comment from Kyle after last night's game that BB has become the defensive anchor in the 4th qtr. Folks,,, really,,, is Kyle clueless compared to RR faithful too?

Edit: I'm a JV fan, and am convinced he's going to be a beast in years to come, but he's still a long ways from there.

[consmap]

Note the interesting comment from Kyle after last night's game that BB has become the defensive anchor in the 4th qtr. Folks,,, really,,, is Kyle clueless compared to RR faithful too?

Kyle also mentioned that he considers JV one of the franchise players for the Raptors (alongside DD). The defense isn't going to go to shambles if Jonas is on the court.

[DanH]

How does the stat account for "offense / defense " substitutions ?
Biz more likely to play defense when he gets scored on and JV more likely to play offense when the scoring gets done. Might that not skew this study ?

It's on individual possession basis - so the offensive efficiency numbers are how many points scored per 100 offensive possessions, while the defensive efficiency is per 100 defensive possessions. Net rating is the difference. So if you played one offensive possession and scored 2 points (200 ORTG) and played 100 defensive possessions and allowed 2 points (2 DRTG), your net rating would not be based on 2 points scored minus 2 points allowed equals 0, it would be 200 - 2 = 198 net rating. So, short answer, no, defence-offence subs would not impact the numbers.

In any case, those sorts of subs make up maybe 3 or 4 possessions in a game, and most games they aren't even made, and on a scale of 75 or so minutes played (or more for BB) you are looking at about 150 possessions played (each way), so even if subs worked like that it would be an error on the scale of 1 or 2 %. But they don't anyway.

That's also why net rating is a far superior statistic to simple plus-minus. Plus minus will penalize players who play more defensive possessions than offensive ones (based on regular sub patterns and of course offence-defence subs at the end of games). Net rating takes the ratio of possession types out of the equation and just presents the difference in value provided on each end.

[mcHAPPY]

Nonsense? So you're saying Masai, and his team, are also idiots you swallow this nonsense?



Numbers hardly ever tell the whole story, and these certainly don't. Crunch time defensive line-ups is more often than not match-up based, and we have no idea how well either of them would have done in the others' minutes against the same line-ups.

More important numbers are 21-13 with significant time missed by 2 starters, and a very tough early schedule. Casey can't possibly be the idiot some portray him as, else Masai is too.

Note the interesting comment from Kyle after last night's game that BB has become the defensive anchor in the 4th qtr. Folks,,, really,,, is Kyle clueless compared to RR faithful too?

Edit: I'm a JV fan, and am convinced he's going to be a beast in years to come, but he's still a long ways from there.

Masai has never done anything to show he interferes in the coaching process in season.

Many of his post-season comments last year were very much in opposition to the comments made by Casey throughout the season - which I believe added to the surprise when Casey was eventually retained.

However 2 coaching staffs overturned under Masai's watch is telling of his final analysis of game strategy execution.

[mcHAPPY]

I think there is a lot being made of not much yet. Thinking about situation a bit more, 2 factors I think play in to it:

1) Biz former team was opponent - who just so happened to not pick up his 4th year option and let a former lottery pick walk for nothing. If I'm a coach or assistant, I'm saving that nugget for a moment to fire him up. Revenge matters.

2) JV is just back from injury. Very real possibility he is on a minutes restriction to ensure nothing like a groin or hammy injury happens early on his return. JV is not the most athletic or nimble of foot. He played just under 21 minutes his first 2 games. He was up to 24 in just 3rd game back and did not play 4th.


A lot of noise being made about nothing right now in my opinion. Those advocating his superiority over JV have been dogging JV for years. Nothing new here.

Will be interesting to see what happens as JV continues his return.

[DanH]

Nonsense? So you're saying Masai, and his team, are also idiots you swallow this nonsense?

Numbers hardly ever tell the whole story, and these certainly don't. Crunch time defensive line-ups is more often than not match-up based, and we have no idea how well either of them would have done in the others' minutes against the same line-ups.

More important numbers are 21-13 with significant time missed by 2 starters, and a very tough early schedule. Casey can't possibly be the idiot some portray him as, else Masai is too.

Note the interesting comment from Kyle after last night's game that BB has become the defensive anchor in the 4th qtr. Folks,,, really,,, is Kyle clueless compared to RR faithful too?

Edit: I'm a JV fan, and am convinced he's going to be a beast in years to come, but he's still a long ways from there.

Players of sport are notorious for saying good things about their teammates and coaches.

As for those numbers. Yes, you never know how a player will perform if things went differently. But when there is a gap that wide, you start to question whether it would really be all that different.

Also, I'm glad that we've gotten to the point in the conversation where we see that the best support we have for Biyombo playing over JV is "well, the team has performed consistently better with JV than with BB all season long in a variety of situations, but MAYBE, just maybe, if they'd played different minutes it might possibly have been radically different, for no particular reason and with no supporting evidence whatsoever."

[mcHAPPY]

Players of sport are notorious for saying good things about their teammates and coaches.

As for those numbers. Yes, you never know how a player will perform if things went differently. But when there is a gap that wide, you start to question whether it would really be all that different.

Also, I'm glad that we've gotten to the point in the conversation where we see that the best support we have for Biyombo playing over JV is "well, the team has performed consistently better with JV than with BB all season long in a variety of situations, but MAYBE, just maybe, if they'd played different minutes it might possibly have been radically different, for no particular reason and with no supporting evidence whatsoever."

lol

[Eliza]

Players of sport are notorious for saying good things about their teammates and coaches.

As for those numbers. Yes, you never know how a player will perform if things went differently. But when there is a gap that wide, you start to question whether it would really be all that different.

Also, I'm glad that we've gotten to the point in the conversation where we see that the best support we have for Biyombo playing over JV is "well, the team has performed consistently better with JV than with BB all season long in a variety of situations, but MAYBE, just maybe, if they'd played different minutes it might possibly have been radically different, for no particular reason and with no supporting evidence whatsoever."

Thank you for such a kind misrepresentation of what I said. You're sweet

[thead]

I'm a big proponent of evidence based opining. Also my eye test is admissible as evidence...so there

[thead]

Thank you for such a kind misrepresentation of what I said. You're sweet

I actually picked up on a similar meaning. What did you intend to say/what did we miss?