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  • The Biyombo Effect

    The Biyombo Effect

    This is something that has been mentioned before briefly, but felt a deeper look at the numbers was warranted for this curiosity. The Biyombo Effect is how Biyombo’s presence impacts the offence, specifically shooting %s. The theory is that when Biyombo is on the court, defences are free to ignore him, thus making offence harder on the remaining 4 players. This should result in more contested shots, and with one less passing option, ball movement should also decrease. In layman terms, with less ball movement and more contested shots, the offence will be worse.

    Here are the guys who log the most minutes next to Biyombo (thus most likely to show impact of the effect) that I will look at.
                                                                                                                              

    Rk Lineup MP
    1 B. Biyombo D. DeRozan 643:16
    2 B. Biyombo K. Lowry 618:47
    3 B. Biyombo C. Joseph 439:37
    4 B. Biyombo P. Patterson 409:47
    5 B. Biyombo T. Ross 369:37
    6 B. Biyombo L. Scola 312:17
    7 B. Biyombo D. Carroll 299:23



    The Numbers
    Demar Lowry Carroll Joseph Scola Ross Patterson
    W/BB FG% 43.2 39.1 35.5 41.3 46.5 33.3 37.2
    W/O BB FG% 44.7 42.7 40.7 49.6 45.1 47.4 36.0
    W/BB 3P% 23.1 36.5 35.7 40.0 32.0 26.7 32.9
    W/O BB 3P% 33.3 40.6 39.1 23.8 50.0 45.5 30.4
    W/BB AST’d% 26.8 44.4 65.8 31.1 69.8 60.0 75.6
    W/O BB AST’d% 35.2 43.7 75.4 15.5 71.1 76.1 68.8

    Patterson seems to be the only player truly immune, which is surprising. One would think that a catch and shoot guy who can’t create off the dribble would be more impacted by less ball movement and 4v5 offence, but he actually shoots better with Biyombo (perhaps the defences are playing the odds and leaving Patterson open and choosing to instead battle Biyombo on the glass ). Also seems odd that his Assisted% increases with Biyombo.

    Scola’s FG% isn’t impacted but he shoots double the shots without Biyombo, so sample size variation may be a part of that. His 3P shooting is significantly different, despite almost identical 3PA, which does make sense.

    Ross’s numbers are quite startling. His 3P% plummets almost in half. His assisted % drops significantly, which makes sense that his shooting would follow suit; he isn’t a guy who can really create good looks for himself. The 16% swing on assisted % is the largest of the group.

    The most troubling though, is of course Demar and Lowry, since they account for nearly 40% of all Raptors FGA. Demar takes on a much greater burden to create his offence when Biyombo is on the floor (9% fewer assisted). His shooting from deep drops 10%, which is really worrisome since it isn’t that good to begin with. The lack of space likely makes the corners harder for DD to get the ball in good shooting situations. Lowry’s 4% drop from deep is less pronounced, but no less significant. Lowry hitting big shots (many off of a screen) is mandatory for this team to win as currently constructed. Teams will often double the ball off a Biyombo screen, so getting Lowry those looks gets harder.

    For historical context, I looked back at his time with Charlotte as well. The players with the most minutes logged with Biyombo, (Henderson, Walker, Williams, McRoberts, Tolliver), all had their FG% improve when Biyombo sat and 4 of 5 had their assisted % increase. Strangely, the opposite was true in regards to 3P shooting, as 4 of the 5 had it decrease without Biyombo; only Josh McRoberts had increase without Biyombo. Since 3P% seems to be the most dramatic impact on the Raps, it is surprising to see the opposite true with Charlotte (who weren’t a very good 3P shooting team to begin with).

    So big picture, what does this mean to the Raptors offence.

    Well, looking at Biyombo’s On/Off…
                                                                                                                                                                      
    Team Oppo Diff
    Split Tm MP eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% ORtg eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% ORtg eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% ORtg
    On Court TOR 831 .460 24.1 78.1 51.3 49.9 8.4 10.0 15.0 101.5 .485 21.9 75.9 48.7 64.5 7.2 9.4 15.0 104.3 -.024 +2.2 +2.2 +2.7 +49.3 +8.3 +9.9 +14.9 -2.8
    Off Court TOR 854 .512 25.8 77.6 51.7 52.2 9.5 6.6 14.2 112.9 .489 22.4 74.2 48.3 57.7 7.3 10.3 15.2 102.9 +.023 +3.4 +3.4 +3.4 +51.6 +9.4 +6.5 +14.1 +10.0
    On Off TOR 49% -.052 -1.7 +0.5 -0.4 -2.3 -1.1 +3.4 +0.8 -11.4 -.004 -0.5 +1.7 +0.4 +6.8 -0.1 -0.9 -0.2 +1.4 -.047 -1.2 -1.2 -0.7 -2.3 -1.1 +3.4 +0.8 -12.8


    The team as a whole shootings 5% worse eFG% while our opponents shooting is largely unaffected (0.4% change). Surprisingly, our rebounding (both offensive and defensive) isn’t buoyed by Biyombo and, in fact, our offensive rebounding suffers by 1.7%. Our assists drop by 2.3% and the overall ORtg drops by 11.4 points (we gain [in a bad way] 1.4 points on DRtg – so net we are 12.8 point worse with Biyombo on the court).

    In Charlotte….

    2014-2015 On/Off
                                                                                                                                                                       
    Team Oppo Diff
    Split Tm MP eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% ORtg eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% ORtg eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% ORtg
    On Court CHO 1243 .445 25.9 78.2 51.3 53.9 6.5 10.6 12.9 100.8 .474 21.8 74.1 48.7 62.2 6.9 8.8 13.6 101.8 -.029 +4.1 +4.1 +2.5 +53.3 +6.4 +10.5 +12.8 -1.1
    Off Court CHO 2738 .461 20.3 79.8 49.4 58.0 6.5 8.1 12.5 100.4 .493 20.2 79.7 50.6 59.2 6.4 7.9 13.4 104.9 -.032 +0.1 +0.1 -1.3 +57.4 +6.4 +8.0 +12.4 -4.5
    On Off CHO 31% -.016 +5.6 -1.6 +1.9 -4.1 +0.0 +2.5 +0.4 +0.4 -.019 +1.6 -5.6 -1.9 +3.0 +0.5 +0.9 +0.2 -3.1 +.003 +4.0 +4.0 +3.8 -4.1 +0.0 +2.5 +0.4 +3.4


    2013-2014 On/Off
                                                                                                                                                                       
    Team Oppo Diff
    Split Tm MP eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% ORtg eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% ORtg eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% ORtg
    On Court CHA 1074 .467 23.6 75.0 49.3 57.8 6.9 10.9 15.4 101.6 .477 25.0 76.4 50.7 58.8 7.4 9.0 14.2 103.7 -.009 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 +57.2 +6.8 +10.8 +15.3 -2.1
    Off Court CHA 2913 .485 21.3 78.6 49.8 60.4 6.4 7.4 12.4 105.0 .496 21.4 78.7 50.2 56.2 6.5 7.5 14.2 104.4 -.010 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 +59.9 +6.3 +7.3 +12.2 +0.6
    On Off CHA 27% -.018 +2.3 -3.6 -0.5 -2.6 +0.5 +3.5 +3.0 -3.4 -.019 +3.6 -2.3 +0.5 +2.6 +0.9 +1.5 +0.0 -0.7 +.001 -1.3 -1.3 -1.0 -2.7 +0.5 +3.5 +3.1 -2.7


    We saw eFG% drop by 1.6% and 1.8%, but his overall impact to the ORtg was negligible. His Defensive impact was actually better in Charlotte as well which is surprising as well at first glance. But when you see that his turnover rate is up and his block rate is down, it’s not surprising to see that his WS48 is lower than the past 2 seasons.

    With the Charlotte numbers there is hope that as the season progresses, we will see the gap close with regards to 3P%. We don’t have a diverse enough offence to carry such a problem into the playoffs. We are a middle of the pack 3P shooting team (15th in attempts, 13th in %) but the success of it greatly impacts how well the drive game of our offence functions.

    With our league leading 22.8 PPG off drives, and 4th most FTA, defences will be looking for any competitive advantage they can find to close the lanes, and the Biyombo Effect, might be just that.


    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

  • #2
    He has a hugely negative effect on James Johnson as well. Big part of why Johnson is unplayable right now. Johnson's most played lineup is BB/DD/JJ/Lowry/Scola, with 40 minutes played. In those 40 minutes, our 3p% is down 14.6%, eFG% down 11.3%, and points per 100 possessions down 16.4.
    twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

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    • #3
      Barolt wrote: View Post
      He has a hugely negative effect on James Johnson as well. Big part of why Johnson is unplayable right now. Johnson's most played lineup is BB/DD/JJ/Lowry/Scola, with 40 minutes played. In those 40 minutes, our 3p% is down 14.6%, eFG% down 11.3%, and points per 100 possessions down 16.4.
      Not surprising, BB, JJ and DD...The spacing goes down the drain.

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      • #4
        nice post.

        We've been saying this for a while so it's good to see the numbers. And they're not pretty.

        This guy is a major liability in big-minute situations.

        Cue the anti-JV crowd's excuse in 5...4...3...

        Comment


        • #5
          Barolt wrote: View Post
          He has a hugely negative effect on James Johnson as well. Big part of why Johnson is unplayable right now. Johnson's most played lineup is BB/DD/JJ/Lowry/Scola, with 40 minutes played. In those 40 minutes, our 3p% is down 14.6%, eFG% down 11.3%, and points per 100 possessions down 16.4.
          I left him off because they simply haven't played enough minutes together to warrant the research (and formatting). JJ, Powell and Bennett are the 8-9-10 combos to play with Biyombo in MP. None were deemed enough to look up.
          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

          Comment


          • #6
            But.. but.. consecutive 20 board games, blocked shots, screens and all that jazz...

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            • #7
              Jangles wrote: View Post
              But.. but.. consecutive 20 board games, blocked shots, screens and all that jazz...
              Well hey those things are not bad but at what cost? And is it worth it?
              Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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              • #8
                Jangles wrote: View Post
                But.. but.. imaginary consecutive 20 board games, blocked shots, screens and all that jazz...
                fixed.
                Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                Comment


                • #9
                  http://www.hoopsvibe.com/features/48...nd-bad-defense

                  Old article, but somewhat relevant when people bring up Biyombo's blocks. A lot of those are probably due to our porous perimeter defense.
                  twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

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                  • #10
                    Great post Axel! The work posters do on in-depth threads like this is always appreciated!

                    The eye-test tells me that when there are fewer players considered to be scorers on the court (ie: Biyombo), the amount of ISO/hero-ball from DeRozan and Lowry increases significantly.

                    Outside of DeRozan and Lowry, the only other players seemingly trusted to create offensively are Joseph, Carroll (limited) and JV (limited, and not at all in the 4th quarter). Ross, Patterson, Scola and Carroll (at times) are little more than spot-up 3pt shooters in Casey's system, while Biyombo, JJ and JV (especially during the 4th quarter) are essentially afterthoughts.

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                    • #11
                      Ross, Patterson, Scola and Carroll are all players who would excel on a team with a high assist rate. I can see why they're on our roster because they all have the capability to be high efficiency offensive players, and Ross and Carroll at least can be high efficiency defensive players.

                      However, in our system, we just don't generate offense for those guys. Playing Biyombo at center lets defenses help off those shooters even less.
                      twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

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                      • #12
                        Barolt wrote: View Post
                        Ross, Patterson, Scola and Carroll are all players who would excel on a team with a high assist rate. I can see why they're on our roster because they all have the capability to be high efficiency offensive players, and Ross and Carroll at least can be high efficiency defensive players.

                        However, in our system, we just don't generate offense for those guys. Playing Biyombo at center lets defenses help off those shooters even less.
                        Ball movement. Raptors started out doing that, not so much anymore.

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                        • #13
                          To piggy back on the Ross numbers a bit, Ross and Valanciunas have only played 61 minutes together so far this season, but it's by far the most effective pairing for Ross, and only 2Pat and Powell(9 minute sample) rank higher for JV.

                          Interestingly, CoJo+JV is a more effective pairing than Lowry+JV.
                          twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

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                          • #14
                            Awesome post Axel.

                            Pretty damning numbers for BB8 ... good thing he at least fell into a great nickname.

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                            • #15
                              Joey wrote: View Post
                              Awesome post Axel.

                              Pretty damning numbers for BB8 ... good thing he at least fell into a great nickname.
                              I still love what he brings off the bench, so long as he's bringing it off the bench at <20 min a game

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