By now, most people have seen the article from SI's The Cauldron, provided by Raptorsnz in the Everything DD thread. It was pretty universally praised by RR members and is definitely worth the read.
But there is another side of this story which seems to have been largely missed. A few quotes from the article:
"DeRozan is important because of what an enormous outlier he is: a shooting guard just coming into his prime that is thriving without a 3-point shot. He’s a statistical unicorn."
"If a player can’t help a little on the offensive glass, or find open teammates, or take care of the basketball, then the whole ‘not being able to shoot’ thing simply becomes too big an obstacle."
"The margin for error becomes extremely small without that 3-point shot..."
"DeRozan also is lucky to play in an offense that surrounds him with plenty of complementary pieces."
"There are plenty of offenses where DeRozan, as skilled as he is, would likely flounder because of an ill-fitting system and parts around him."
"Dwane Casey and his staff deserve plenty of credit for helping DeRozan figure out how to be the best version of himself this season."
These little notes, which served the purpose of framing how unique Demar is, also shed a bit of light on another concern. One RR member, mentioned the very same thought the other day (not directly attributed to the article);
Which of course, wasn't particularly well received...
(At this point I recommend going back and re-reading the quotes from the article above)
And while this one wasn't directly related to the above, it certainly summarizes the larger picture here and how people responded to the article.
Demar has played great this season, and has played well enough to likely merit the max offer. The article explains exactly how Demar has done that and kudos to Casey for getting the "system" in place to do it. But if Demar is this enormous outlier, statistical unicorn with a small margin for error, isn't that a cause for concern from a team perspective?
The entirety of the article talks about how Demar has over-come his limitations and Casey has used him to ensure that Demar is the best version of himself. But the article doesn't cover the difficulty in building a team around a player who can achieve such high level of play but only with the team building itself to cater to that skillset.
Most max players are unique in some way. Curry's quick release and accuracy from deep. Dirk's size and shooting. LeBron's passing, size and finishing. And all players have limitations; Curry's size/frame, Dirk's defence, LeBron's perimeter shooting.
But Demar might be the most unique of them all in the sense that his limitation and his strength are so intertwined and, unlike many max guys, Demar's strength doesn't offer a significant competitive advantage that can be built around to improve the other guys. Instead, the other guys are built around to create his strength (relative to max level productivity). This creates a bit of a problem. How do you improve the ceiling of this team when a significant amount of roster planning needs to focus on creating a roster that can bring out the best in Demar?
With Demar, we essentially MUST employ a stretch 4 PF.
It's not a coincidence that Luis Scola has attempted 62 3PA this season in 39 games while his previous 8 seasons combined for 60 3PA. Scola is the PF on Demar's Top 3 most used lineups and 4 of 5 most used DD lineups. Patterson meanwhile, shoots 3.9 3PA per game, tied for 25th of all non-guards. The spacing of DD (as described in the article) requires another perimeter threat for it to work. Without it, the defence isn't pressured and can send multiple defenders into the paint.
With Demar, we need a PG who can play well off-ball. As this position is usually ball dominant, we need to find the guys that are atypical. It's almost an inversion of the relationship, the PG creates space for the SG with his 3 point shooting and off-ball work, rather than the more traditional roles.
With Demar, we need a SF in the 3&D mold, to create space on offence and to matchup defensively.
All of these things can be found, but stretch 4s and 3&D wings are premium commodities. "Over-paying" is more common on these types of players because the supply doesn't match the demand. The PG position is fine with Lowry, but life after KL looks very different, as it is hard to find good value on a PG contract when you are looking for atypical players.
None of this is to say that we can't build a contender with DD on a max (or near max) deal, just that the popular saying "more than one way to build a contender" may not actually apply here. If we want max $ level of productivity from Demar, we may need to build a contender in a very specific manner. The margin of error for Masai is smaller.
Raptorsnz wrote:
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"DeRozan is important because of what an enormous outlier he is: a shooting guard just coming into his prime that is thriving without a 3-point shot. He’s a statistical unicorn."
"If a player can’t help a little on the offensive glass, or find open teammates, or take care of the basketball, then the whole ‘not being able to shoot’ thing simply becomes too big an obstacle."
"The margin for error becomes extremely small without that 3-point shot..."
"DeRozan also is lucky to play in an offense that surrounds him with plenty of complementary pieces."
"There are plenty of offenses where DeRozan, as skilled as he is, would likely flounder because of an ill-fitting system and parts around him."
"Dwane Casey and his staff deserve plenty of credit for helping DeRozan figure out how to be the best version of himself this season."
These little notes, which served the purpose of framing how unique Demar is, also shed a bit of light on another concern. One RR member, mentioned the very same thought the other day (not directly attributed to the article);
OldSkoolCool wrote:
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JWash wrote:
View Post
Primer wrote:
View Post
And while this one wasn't directly related to the above, it certainly summarizes the larger picture here and how people responded to the article.
JWash wrote:
View Post
Demar has played great this season, and has played well enough to likely merit the max offer. The article explains exactly how Demar has done that and kudos to Casey for getting the "system" in place to do it. But if Demar is this enormous outlier, statistical unicorn with a small margin for error, isn't that a cause for concern from a team perspective?
The entirety of the article talks about how Demar has over-come his limitations and Casey has used him to ensure that Demar is the best version of himself. But the article doesn't cover the difficulty in building a team around a player who can achieve such high level of play but only with the team building itself to cater to that skillset.
Most max players are unique in some way. Curry's quick release and accuracy from deep. Dirk's size and shooting. LeBron's passing, size and finishing. And all players have limitations; Curry's size/frame, Dirk's defence, LeBron's perimeter shooting.
But Demar might be the most unique of them all in the sense that his limitation and his strength are so intertwined and, unlike many max guys, Demar's strength doesn't offer a significant competitive advantage that can be built around to improve the other guys. Instead, the other guys are built around to create his strength (relative to max level productivity). This creates a bit of a problem. How do you improve the ceiling of this team when a significant amount of roster planning needs to focus on creating a roster that can bring out the best in Demar?
With Demar, we essentially MUST employ a stretch 4 PF.
It's not a coincidence that Luis Scola has attempted 62 3PA this season in 39 games while his previous 8 seasons combined for 60 3PA. Scola is the PF on Demar's Top 3 most used lineups and 4 of 5 most used DD lineups. Patterson meanwhile, shoots 3.9 3PA per game, tied for 25th of all non-guards. The spacing of DD (as described in the article) requires another perimeter threat for it to work. Without it, the defence isn't pressured and can send multiple defenders into the paint.
With Demar, we need a PG who can play well off-ball. As this position is usually ball dominant, we need to find the guys that are atypical. It's almost an inversion of the relationship, the PG creates space for the SG with his 3 point shooting and off-ball work, rather than the more traditional roles.
With Demar, we need a SF in the 3&D mold, to create space on offence and to matchup defensively.
All of these things can be found, but stretch 4s and 3&D wings are premium commodities. "Over-paying" is more common on these types of players because the supply doesn't match the demand. The PG position is fine with Lowry, but life after KL looks very different, as it is hard to find good value on a PG contract when you are looking for atypical players.
None of this is to say that we can't build a contender with DD on a max (or near max) deal, just that the popular saying "more than one way to build a contender" may not actually apply here. If we want max $ level of productivity from Demar, we may need to build a contender in a very specific manner. The margin of error for Masai is smaller.
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