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GAME #40 - Toronto Raptors 106 - Orlando Magic 103

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  • JWash wrote: View Post
    Can people calm down...? The graphic has us their because we're 2nd in the east right now. It's not a big deal.
    The graphic is a little more complex than that - it's based on net rating, strength of schedule, probability of playoff pairings, and something along the lines of a Monte Carlo simulation.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • JWash wrote: View Post
      I think the Raptors have only actually had the full starting 5 healthy and starting for 9 games this season. (Someone correct me if I'm wrong on that). I believe it was the first 6 games and then the 3 wrapped around the new year against Washington, Charlotte and Chicago. We're 7-2 in those games.

      dRTGs (opposing oRTG) from those games:

      vs. IND: 95.5
      @ BOS: 95.1
      vs MIL: 98.0
      @ DAL: 94.9
      @ OKC: 103.4
      @ ORL: 103.4
      vs. WAS: 95.2
      vs. CHA: 108.4
      vs. CHI: 124.3

      This averages out to a 102.0 dRTG even including the Chicago game which was a shootout (both teams were over 122 oRTG), which would rank 5th in the NBA. Without the Chicago game it's 99.2 which would rank 2nd in the NBA.

      Small sample size obviously, but makes you wonder if this team has an extra gear left to hit defensively with Carroll and JV both starting and healthy.
      Hard to say... Early in the season offenses are always rusty, so six games at the start of the season doesn't tell us enough.
      Avg ORatg leaguewide per stats.nba.com
      Oct 99.6
      Nov 101.4
      Dec 103.4
      Jan 103.5

      That said we were 7th in the league in Dratg through our first six games and held opponents to 4.2 fewer points per 100 possessions than their ORatg implied so we did pretty well.

      Carroll clearly passed the eye test on D imo. Only real question is whether he'll have enough time to ramp up to 100% by the time we're in the playoffs.
      It's the Spicy Show! Time to cook.

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      • DanH wrote: View Post
        The graphic is a little more complex than that - it's based on net rating, strength of schedule, probability of playoff pairings, and something along the lines of a Monte Carlo simulation.
        Yes I know that, but us being 2nd in the east with one of the higher SRS ratings is the "simple" reason.

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