Playoff Ceiling: This Team Is.... the '97 Atlanta Hawks

[KeonClark]

Lebron = Jordan? That should count for something.

Rest of Bulls in 97 >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Cavs

[tDotted]

Lebron = Jordan? That should count for something.

Haha I was tempted to do this, but I thought I had done enough already

Oh and another thing...our uniforms are way fucking better.

AND THE HAWKS JUST REBRANDED TOO. This is insane. This can't be a coincidence.

[Mess]

Oh and another thing...our uniforms are way fucking better.

[S.R.]

Lebron = Jordan? That should count for something.

Small aside - should look at the TV ratings for the Jordan era. It's insane. Fell off a cliff after 1998, especially Finals ratings. Jordan's impact was so huge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation...ielsen_ratings

[golden]

Another thing I don't think we've pointed out yet is that while there may be similarities between raps ad hawks, the 29 other teams are nowhere near the same as 96 97. You mentioned how the hawks got spanked in 2nd round by the 72 win Jordan bulls..there is nothing close to Jordans bulls in the eastern conference.

So again while I appreciate the work you put in, unfortunately you have not unlocked a crystal ball that can predict sports.

Lebron = Jordan? That should count for something.

[KeonClark]

I would genuinely love to see if you (or anyone) could find more teams that were this similar to the Raptors. I highly doubt it.. This is some millennial, once-in-a-lifetime type shit.

Another thing I don't think we've pointed out yet is that while there may be similarities between raps ad hawks, the 29 other teams are nowhere near the same as 96 97. You mentioned how the hawks got spanked in 2nd round by the 72 win Jordan bulls..there is nothing close to Jordans bulls in the eastern conference.

So again while I appreciate the work you put in, unfortunately you have not unlocked a crystal ball that can predict sports.

[tDotted]

Alright some debate..

A few thoughts:
- pulling out a few stats like FG% and giving no context - late 90's NBA vs. the current NBA - is leaving an awful lot out

..

- Roster composition - the Hawks five highest mpg players that season had an average age of 30.4. That was an old team. The Raps 5 highest mpg players' average age is 26.2. Big difference.

IMO, I thought context wouldn't really matter for the stats. The rankings showed how these teams stack up against the rest of the league without bias.

Here are the league averages throughout NBA history.


FG% was about the same then and now.. the average age of the league was older back then though, by over a year. Doesn't sound like much but when account for the amount of players in the league, it's a big difference.

- Cap situation - where was that Hawks team relative to the cap? How much cap space did they have in the next 2 seasons? Huge factor.

Like Axel said, this wasn't about the long-term outlook. Just comparing the roster composition, regular season performance, and making an educated guess on how the postseason will turn out. This team's roster is more similar to the '97 Hawks but the performance of the team (W/L & point differential) is more similar to the '98 version.

- Picks and prospects - the following summer the Hawks only had a single 1st round pick, #20. The Raps are in a much better picks situation.

True, but they also had 4 future first round picks that weren't theirs (2 first, 2 seconds).

- Comparing Mutombo, who won DPOY that year, to JV, who's nowhere near that discussion, shows how much you stretched some of the narrative in your player comps. The only thing 97 Mutombo and 16 JV have in common is that they play the same position. Using per 36 and per 100 to argue otherwise is a great example of cherry picking stats to support a narrative.

I told you not to crucify me... lol. Strictly about their role on offense: occasional post ups, offensive rebound putbacks, dump off passes. Besides BPG, their stats are very even. Not really cherry picking there.

I'm sure we can find anecdotal evidence (especially one-off examples) of teams with similarities in certain statistical areas who fared much better, and I'll bet we can find examples of teams with parallels who fared much worse.

I would genuinely love to see if you (or anyone) could find more teams that were this similar to the Raptors. I highly doubt it.. This is some millennial, once-in-a-lifetime type shit.

[Axel]

I don't know, at first glance the op similarities are interesting, but drawing conclusions that predict the Raps' future failure (this playoff) and suggesting they're doomed to treadmill? That's a huge leap and loos like pretty bad logic, though I'll admit I don't know much about logic/debate. I'm sure we can find anecdotal evidence (especially one-off examples) of teams with similarities in certain statistical areas who fared much better, and I'll bet we can find examples of teams with parallels who fared much worse.

I think there is a big difference between comparing to predict playoff success vs comparing for long term outlook. Most of the issues you raised are more for long term outlook. Ballooning cap and extra picks won't impact this team in the playoffs (which I assume is the intent of the comp).

[S.R.]

A few thoughts:
- pulling out a few stats like FG% and giving no context - late 90's NBA vs. the current NBA - is leaving an awful lot out
- much more important variables than FG% ranking:

- Roster composition - the Hawks five highest mpg players that season had an average age of 30.4. That was an old team. The Raps 5 highest mpg players' average age is 26.2. Big difference.

- Cap situation - where was that Hawks team relative to the cap? How much cap space did they have in the next 2 seasons? Huge factor.

- Picks and prospects - the following summer the Hawks only had a single 1st round pick, #20. The Raps are in a much better picks situation.

- Ballooning salary cap - the way the cap is surging upwards is unprecedented, was not true in the 97/98 season, and meant those Hawks were more locked in (with an old team, too). Huge difference.

- Comparing Mutombo, who won DPOY that year, to JV, who's nowhere near that discussion, shows how much you stretched some of the narrative in your player comps. The only thing 97 Mutombo and 16 JV have in common is that they play the same position. Using per 36 and per 100 to argue otherwise is a great example of cherry picking stats to support a narrative.


I don't know, at first glance the op similarities are interesting, but drawing conclusions that predict the Raps' future failure (this playoff) and suggesting they're doomed to treadmill? That's a huge leap and loos like pretty bad logic, though I'll admit I don't know much about logic/debate. I'm sure we can find anecdotal evidence (especially one-off examples) of teams with similarities in certain statistical areas who fared much better, and I'll bet we can find examples of teams with parallels who fared much worse.

[SkywalkerAC]

That team was "built for the playoffs" with a cast of veterans, with little in the way of youth development. The Raptors are looking good for the 2nd seed and for the playoffs even though we've been without our veteran at the 3, and a 5-man developmental-unit (6 if you count Daniels, 7 if you count Nando, 8, 9, 10, and 11 if you count Cory, Terrence, Jonas, and Bismack...oh yeah there's JJ and PP too).

[Snooch]

The Raptors can Win a Title This year with the proper Coach.

dwayne casey a huge stumbling block for tha squad.

[Mess]

This team is a carbon copy of the '97/'98 Atlanta Hawks. (No... no, not the '04 Pistons... smh)


History Says:
Ceiling: '97 Hawks (2nd round exit)
Basement: '98 Hawks (1st round exit)

**The formula we have right now has resulted in a second round exit and a subsequent first round exit in the not-so distant past. They say history repeats itself... I think this core will meet a similar fate**

Carbon copy is going a bit far and that's a lot of work to say that they'll probably lose in the 2nd round.

But hey if you're right, after this season there's only 8 years of rebuilding to go before the Raptors make the playoffs again in 2025!

[S.R.]

I'll give you credit, that's a pretty apt comparison right here and now. Buttt

You're assuming we have the exact same roster next season. Jeezus, everybody's so anxious that we're not set up to win a title right here right now. Neither are 26 other teams! I'm loving this year's edition of the raptors, honestly 2 and a half years ago bargnani and gay were chucking all over and losing 2 or 3 games a week. There's tns of wiggle room to take the next step.

I'm also not feeling the panic of the Raptors being stuck - at all. Point's been raised countless times, but this team isn't stuck. They've got reasonable contracts, some prospects, draft picks, two huge cap jumps in the next two summers (a massive and key difference between the current situation and any historic parallel - this has never happened before) that are likely to create flexibility and a lot of player movement, DeMar's a FA this summer (we're not even guaranteed he's back), Kyle Lowry's likely a FA the following summer (PO), JV is young and developing, we likely have to wait for next year to integrate a healthy Carroll properly, another playoff flameout better mean a coaching change, every contract on this roster is tradeable....

I mean that's a shit ton of changes going on without arbitrarily deciding that core pieces need to be traded RIGHT NOW when the current team is meeting/exceeding expectations for this season. They're playing better than last year. All the impending changes I just mentioned are on the horizon. You don't blow rosters up in this situation.

[CB4Champ]

The Raptors can Win a Title This year with the proper Coach.

dwayne casey a huge stumbling block for tha squad.

[KHD]

20th and 19th in FG%

28th and 29th in assists per game

Both 2nd last in FGM

Starting backcourt leads team in minutes and FGA with a low FG%

****

History Says:
Ceiling: '97 Hawks (2nd round exit)
Basement: '98 Hawks (1st round exit)

**The formula we have right now has resulted in a second round exit and a subsequent first round exit in the not-so distant past. They say history repeats itself... I think this core will meet a similar fate**

Comparison aside, I agree with the assessment of what this core can do.

This raptors team plays uninspired basketball at the offensive end, relying on free throws and guard iso plays.

Regardless of the "success" it's brought (regular season only, in a weak division, in a weak conference the past couple years), it's boring as fuck to watch this team even when they're making shots, and it's downright pathetic when they're missing.