Raptors 3 Point Defense - Cause for Concern?

[3inthekeon]

Carroll coming back healthy Will help a lot. MU is also shopping for a PF and the names I've heard so far all seem to be more agile than our current crop of PF's

Why do you think Patterson is not agile?

[3inthekeon]

I was thinking about 3 point % fluctuations.. but it just doesn't apply in this case. In that time span you listed, Raptors allowed opponents to shoot 36.5% from 3 (which would be tied for 6th last right now). In the second half of that span (from Dec. 16 onward), Raptors have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from 3 (which would rank 2nd last overall right now).

So, they've been consistently bad. This is a legitimate issue with the Raptors defense.

So get rid of Scola.

[GLF]

Carroll coming back healthy Will help a lot. MU is also shopping for a PF and the names I've heard so far all seem to be more agile than our current crop of PF's

I hope that works. But if we were 6th from the bottom in our first 25 games or whatever when Carroll was there I don't he helps THAT much. But Scola does need to go. He is too slow. You can't have two slows big playing on the same team with the way the game is going now. Think about if we still had Amir.

[MixxAOR]

How many threes did we allow with Carroll in a line up and how many do we allow now? How many of them are contested? A lot of ways to look into it.

[LJ2]

Why do you think Patterson is not agile?

Personally, I feel like 2Pat is very straight legged and doesn't move well laterally. However, what I said specifically is that the names I've heard MU has been targeting are "more" agile than any PF's on our current roster (minus JJ though I think he's listed as SF).

[Barolt]

How many threes did we allow with Carroll in a line up and how many do we allow now? How many of them are contested? A lot of ways to look into it.

Our starting lineup with JJ allowed opponents to shoot 42.9%. With Carroll, 37.5%. Either one is bad.

[tDotted]

How many threes did we allow with Carroll in a line up and how many do we allow now? How many of them are contested? A lot of ways to look into it.

Our starting lineup with JJ allowed opponents to shoot 42.9%. With Carroll, 37.5%. Either one is bad.

Alright so Per 100 Poss, JJ in the starting lineup gives up 19.8 3PA. With Carroll, they're at 22.5 3PA. Not sure about contested/uncontested.

Side note: Ross + Patterson is an incredible combo for 3 point defense in this system.

[DanH]

It doesn't matter if our first half and second half 3PT% line up or not. That is not necessarily indicative of a defence problem.

If it was a defensive issue, I would expect us to be giving up a LOT of three pointers. If teams are getting wide open threes from certain plays they'd be doing that all game. Instead we give up a league average number of three pointers per 100 possessions (about 1/4 of our opponents' possessions). More likely we've caught a few teams on hot nights and our numbers are skewed slightly upward. We're not elite like the Warriors or Spurs, obviously. But the stat is also top heavy - we are near the bottom, and a couple percentage points from league average. While the top teams are FOUR percentage points away from league average.

Want a lesson in the predictive value of defensive 3PT%?

Would you be as concerned if we were middle of the pack in defensive 3PT%? We were last season. Slightly above average at 13th in fact. And we gave up 44% from three in the postseason, by far the worst in the league.

Last season the Houston Rockets had by far the best in-season Opp 3PT% at 32%. 6 of the 16 playoff teams had better Opp 3PT%'s in the playoffs, putting them about average. The Bucks were 8th in-season in 3PT%. Second worst in the playoffs with 40% given up.

It's so much more noise than anything else, even over a full season sample. There are better metrics to look at, that are far more predictive of future success.

[DanH]

I'm tired, but tomorrow I'm going to go through the open/wide open/contested shots given up by the team. Suffice to say that the team actually looks pretty solid by those metrics, and just has abnormally high FG%'s when guys are let open (which is also true of Golden State and SAS, before someone says that's a symptom of their poor defence).

[tDotted]

I'm tired, but tomorrow I'm going to go through the open/wide open/contested shots given up by the team. Suffice to say that the team actually looks pretty solid by those metrics, and just has abnormally high FG%'s when guys are let open (which is also true of Golden State and SAS, before someone says that's a symptom of their poor defence).

I'd like to see this. Could you also compare it with our numbers from last season?

[GLF]

I'm tired, but tomorrow I'm going to go through the open/wide open/contested shots given up by the team. Suffice to say that the team actually looks pretty solid by those metrics, and just has abnormally high FG%'s when guys are let open (which is also true of Golden State and SAS, before someone says that's a symptom of their poor defence).

Would love to see this. Well I'm glad it's not indicative of playoff success because if it was we would be screwed.

[Simplicity]

What rank are we if Scola was not in any of our line ups? Would we be a top ten team?

[DanH]

What rank are we if Scola was not in any of our line ups? Would we be a top ten team?

This year with Scola off the court, our opponents have a 34.6 3PT%. That would rank 11th.

[Cody73]

KL-TR-DC-PP-JV


I have a feeling that might be our best line-up to stop 3's with.

[Fully]

Raptors give up roughly a point and a half more per game from the 3-point line than your average NBA team. That's not ideal obviously - you want your team to be a leader in as many defensive categories as possible - but I don't see it as a death sentence either.