Raptors 3 Point Defense - Cause for Concern?

[S.R.]

The Raps' current defence is giving up the three. They're middle of the pack for 3PA allowed, but a very poor 27th overall for 3PT% against (.371).

Pop, who's always ahead of the curve, now has a roster without much three point shooting - and he's fine with it (Spurs are 26th overall for 3PA). But he knows denying and defending the 3 is critical - Spurs are #1 for opp 3PA (only 19 allowed per game - Sacramento gives up 29, worst in the NBA) and #2 for opp 3PT% at .315, right behind Golden State.

If the two best teams in the league are honing in on defending the 3 point shot, it doesn't seem like a great thing for the Raps' defence to be giving up. I suppose Pop knows he likely needs to get through GSW to make the Finals, so that gives impetus to defending the 3, but Cleveland, Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, and Charlotte are all top 10 in 3PA. A little worried this could come back to bite the Raps in a playoff series...

[JWash]

DeRozan's the biggest culprit here, getting scorched from 3 in his matchups.

Giving up 3.3 3PA/game at 42.9%. Not cool. Not sure if it's just bad luck or poor defensive effort on closeouts. In the past he's defended the 3 pretty well. 34.7% last year (even though we were an atrocious defensive team) and 35.2% in 2013-14, both lower than league average.

[Barolt]

Here's a thought... what if all the starting lineup's defensive issues basically boil down to trust?

What if DeMar's sagging off 3pt shooters isn't laziness, but he doesn't trust Scola/JV to cover the paint, so he comes in to help.

Maybe it's a matter of putting 2-3 guys who aren't great defenders out there means everyone tries to help more, which makes the group collectively and individually look worse than they actually are?

[DanH]

I'd be more concerned if they were giving up a lot of threes than with the high percentage they are giving up.

[Barolt]

This once again seems to be a case of the more starters(not named Carroll), the worse it gets.

KL/DD/DC/LS/JV give up 3s at a 37.5% clip.
KL/DD/JJ/LS/JV give up 3s at a 42.9% clip.
KL/CJ/TR/PP/BB give up 3s at a 30.5% clip.
CJ/DD/TR/PP/BB give up 3s at a 28.1% clip.
KL/DD/DC/LS/BB give up 3s at a 42.3% clip.

Those are all of our lineups over 100 minutes.

Strangely, looking at our top 10 lineups, the biggest identifier is Scola, not DeMar. Every single lineup with him in it gives up 3s at a 37%+ rate. Every lineup without him is bettween 28-31%.

Makes me believe DeMar is helping into the paint more when Scola is out there.

[GLF]

This once again seems to be a case of the more starters(not named Carroll), the worse it gets.

KL/DD/DC/LS/JV give up 3s at a 37.5% clip.
KL/DD/JJ/LS/JV give up 3s at a 42.9% clip.
KL/CJ/TR/PP/BB give up 3s at a 30.5% clip.
CJ/DD/TR/PP/BB give up 3s at a 28.1% clip.
KL/DD/DC/LS/BB give up 3s at a 42.3% clip.

Those are all of our lineups over 100 minutes.

Strangely, looking at our top 10 lineups, the biggest identifier is Scola, not DeMar. Every single lineup with him in it gives up 3s at a 37%+ rate. Every lineup without him is bettween 28-31%.

Makes me believe DeMar is helping into the paint more when Scola is out there.

Probably. Also Scola has to guard a lot of stretch bigs and he's just too slow when closing out. So there is a lot of scrambling.

[tDotted]

12 other teams have had a W/L % of .600+ while giving up 37% shooting on threes..

6 of those teams were 1st round exits. Only 2 others made it past the 2nd round (Stock/Malone Jazz & Penny/Shaq Magic). I'd say defending the three point line is pretty important to playoff success.

[GLF]

12 other teams have had a W/L % of .600+ while giving up 37% shooting on threes..

6 of those teams were 1st round exits. Only 2 others made it past the 2nd round (Stock/Malone Jazz & Penny/Shaq Magic). I'd say defending the three point line is pretty important to playoff success.

Agreed. Besides our horrible play in tight games down the stretch that is my second biggest worry.

[A.I]

I think our 3 point defense will definitely get better once Carroll returns. Although I am worried about DD's ability to defend the perimeter.

[DanH]

3 point % given up fluctuates like crazy.

Here is the top 10 in 3 point % defence in the first 25 or so games (up to Dec 15) this season:
Spurs, Knicks, Heat, Warriors, Celtics, Mavericks, Bulls, Magic, Clippers, Cavs.

Here is the rank in 3 point % for those teams since that date:
4th, 17th, 13th, 1st, 2nd, 10th, 7th, 21st, 16th, 8th.

Only 6 of the top 10 stayed in the top 10, and three ended up below average. Three of the top 5 stayed in the top 5, so there may be an element of skill there, but the other two dropped to around average. Meanwhile, I didn't show it, but looking at the reverse (top ten teams lately and where they sat for the first half of the year), you've got the 24th place Atlanta Hawks sitting 6th more recently, and the 25th place Grizzlies up there at 9th of late. There's just too much noise in that stat to assign any real predictive value to it.

If I was in the mood I'd run a regression to show how weak the predictive value of defensive 3PT% is, but I think that example is clear enough.

[GLF]

3 point % given up fluctuates like crazy.

Here is the top 10 in 3 point % defence in the first 25 or so games (up to Dec 15) this season:
Spurs, Knicks, Heat, Warriors, Celtics, Mavericks, Bulls, Magic, Clippers, Cavs.

Here is the rank in 3 point % for those teams since that date:
4th, 17th, 13th, 1st, 2nd, 10th, 7th, 21st, 16th, 8th.

Only 6 of the top 10 stayed in the top 10, and three ended up below average. Three of the top 5 stayed in the top 5, so there may be an element of skill there, but the other two dropped to around average. Meanwhile, I didn't show it, but looking at the reverse (top ten teams lately and where they sat for the first half of the year), you've got the 24th place Atlanta Hawks sitting 6th more recently, and the 25th place Grizzlies up there at 9th of late. There's just too much noise in that stat to assign any real predictive value to it.

If I was in the mood I'd run a regression to show how weak the predictive value of defensive 3PT% is, but I think that example is clear enough.

Very true. I just feel that the 3 is such a big part of almost every team's game and if you constantly give even half decent 3 point shooters open looks trust me they will knock them down. This is why so many average to below average 3 point shooters have shot the ball well against us. Because we leave them pretty open consistently. Normally it's DD's man but you know what I mean. If we give teams open shots in the playoffs that spells disaster. And pretty much every team in the playoff picture right now shoots the three well or has at least a couple guys that shoot it well.

[GLF]

3 point % given up fluctuates like crazy.

Here is the top 10 in 3 point % defence in the first 25 or so games (up to Dec 15) this season:
Spurs, Knicks, Heat, Warriors, Celtics, Mavericks, Bulls, Magic, Clippers, Cavs.

Here is the rank in 3 point % for those teams since that date:
4th, 17th, 13th, 1st, 2nd, 10th, 7th, 21st, 16th, 8th.

Only 6 of the top 10 stayed in the top 10, and three ended up below average. Three of the top 5 stayed in the top 5, so there may be an element of skill there, but the other two dropped to around average. Meanwhile, I didn't show it, but looking at the reverse (top ten teams lately and where they sat for the first half of the year), you've got the 24th place Atlanta Hawks sitting 6th more recently, and the 25th place Grizzlies up there at 9th of late. There's just too much noise in that stat to assign any real predictive value to it.

If I was in the mood I'd run a regression to show how weak the predictive value of defensive 3PT% is, but I think that example is clear enough.

Also all of the teams at the bottom half of 3 point fg% defense are non playoff teams except Utah who are barely 8th seed in the West. So to me that's not a good sign. And we are at the bottom half of the worst.

[tDotted]

3 point % given up fluctuates like crazy.

Here is the top 10 in 3 point % defence in the first 25 or so games (up to Dec 15) this season:
Spurs, Knicks, Heat, Warriors, Celtics, Mavericks, Bulls, Magic, Clippers, Cavs.

Here is the rank in 3 point % for those teams since that date:
4th, 17th, 13th, 1st, 2nd, 10th, 7th, 21st, 16th, 8th.

Only 6 of the top 10 stayed in the top 10, and three ended up below average. Three of the top 5 stayed in the top 5, so there may be an element of skill there, but the other two dropped to around average. Meanwhile, I didn't show it, but looking at the reverse (top ten teams lately and where they sat for the first half of the year), you've got the 24th place Atlanta Hawks sitting 6th more recently, and the 25th place Grizzlies up there at 9th of late. There's just too much noise in that stat to assign any real predictive value to it.

If I was in the mood I'd run a regression to show how weak the predictive value of defensive 3PT% is, but I think that example is clear enough.

I was thinking about 3 point % fluctuations.. but it just doesn't apply in this case. In that time span you listed, Raptors allowed opponents to shoot 36.5% from 3 (which would be tied for 6th last right now). In the second half of that span (from Dec. 16 onward), Raptors have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from 3 (which would rank 2nd last overall right now).

So, they've been consistently bad. This is a legitimate issue with the Raptors defense.

[GLF]

I was thinking about 3 point % fluctuations.. but it just doesn't apply in this case. In that time span you listed, Raptors allowed opponents to shoot 36.5% from 3 (which would be tied for 6th last right now). In the second half of that span (from Dec. 16 onward), Raptors have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from 3 (which would rank 2nd last overall right now).

So, they've been consistently bad. This is a legitimate issue with the Raptors defense.

Agreed. And trust me it will hurt us in the playoffs. So we really need to get it together

[LJ2]

Carroll coming back healthy Will help a lot. MU is also shopping for a PF and the names I've heard so far all seem to be more agile than our current crop of PF's