Raptors 3 Point Defense - Cause for Concern?

[tDotted]

I'm tired, but tomorrow I'm going to go through the open/wide open/contested shots given up by the team. Suffice to say that the team actually looks pretty solid by those metrics, and just has abnormally high FG%'s when guys are let open (which is also true of Golden State and SAS, before someone says that's a symptom of their poor defence).

Is it possible that this team is giving really good looks for really good shooters? Would explain the spike in 3p% when open..

[CNinja26]

I think it's a "major" concern if we don't have a strategy against it. From what I read, our line-ups with Scola are the major culprit in terms of giving up the three. And our other line-ups without Scola out (in particular our closing line-ups) do a pretty good job. If the other team is strong at shooting threes and they're dropping it on us, as long as we can flip the line-up to weather that threat, I think we'll be fine.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I wonder how much correlation there is between opponent 3pt shooting (attempts) and the team's interior defense? Biyombo has a solid reputation for defense, while JV's opponent shooting % stats have been solid, as his ability to alter shots is great. Guards often sag off the line to cover the interior passing lanes too, which has lead to a lot of steals inside 15'. If teams are deterred to attack the basket, does that mean an increased reliance on 3pt shooting?

Also, with the Raptors not being great at stopping dribble-penetration, that theoretically would also open up more opportunities on the 3pt line, as the Raptors hedge/shift/rotate/etc... to defend against the penetration, while leaves them vulnerable to drive-and-kicks (for open shots or further passing along the perimeter for an open shot).

[DanH]

I'm tired, but tomorrow I'm going to go through the open/wide open/contested shots given up by the team. Suffice to say that the team actually looks pretty solid by those metrics, and just has abnormally high FG%'s when guys are let open (which is also true of Golden State and SAS, before someone says that's a symptom of their poor defence).

First thing to note is that most threes given up are open - how often do you see a guy force up a contested three? It's a bad idea. Most threes come off of penetration and a kick out, then maybe swinging the ball around the perimeter until you get an open look. So keep that in mind with the raw numbers coming up.

Also, I'm disappointed in the NBA stats page - they track offensive stats much better than defensive ones, so I'm working with filters and going a team at a time to get some idea of comparisons.

The Raptors this year give up roughly 9 wide open threes, roughly 10 open threes, roughly 5 contested threes, and about 0.5 tightly contested threes per game.

Spurs are 7, 7, 3 and 0.5.
Warriors are 8, 11, 3.5 and 0.
Celtics are 9, 10, 4.5 and 0.5.
Pacers are 10, 11, 6.5, and 0.

Those are the top 4 DRTG teams. Raptors compare very favourably to those teams (obviously not to the Spurs, but as you can see no one does).

Same idea (again these are rough numbers) but with 3PT% for each team in each scenario. I'm leaving the tightly contested number off as it makes up so few of the attempts.

Raptors 43, 36, 30
Spurs 33, 30, 25
Warriors 38, 32, 17
Celtics 33, 29, 33
Pacers 34, 30, 29

See? On wide open three pointers, there's massive variance from team to team. There is probably some level of skill there (who gets the open shots, for example), but a lot of that is noise.

Just look at the month by month break down for the Warriors, for example, in terms of 3PT% given up on wide open threes, of which they give up about 8 a game (again these are rough estimates on my part).

November: 30%
December: 60%
January: 40%

It can vary crazily. And those wide open shots make up close to half of all three pointers given up. Percentages on the other types of threes (in terms of coverage) will show the same variation - although in general the better the coverage the lower the percentage, of course. So really what you want to look at in terms of quality of three point defence is: raw quantity of three point attempts given up, and how many of those attempts are bad shots (contested threes, off the dribble threes) or good shots (catch and shoot, uncovered threes).

[GLF]

First thing to note is that most threes given up are open - how often do you see a guy force up a contested three? It's a bad idea. Most threes come off of penetration and a kick out, then maybe swinging the ball around the perimeter until you get an open look. So keep that in mind with the raw numbers coming up.

Also, I'm disappointed in the NBA stats page - they track offensive stats much better than defensive ones, so I'm working with filters and going a team at a time to get some idea of comparisons.

The Raptors this year give up roughly 9 wide open threes, roughly 10 open threes, roughly 5 contested threes, and about 0.5 tightly contested threes per game.

Spurs are 7, 7, 3 and 0.5.
Warriors are 8, 11, 3.5 and 0.
Celtics are 9, 10, 4.5 and 0.5.
Pacers are 10, 11, 6.5, and 0.

Those are the top 4 DRTG teams. Raptors compare very favourably to those teams (obviously not to the Spurs, but as you can see no one does).

Same idea (again these are rough numbers) but with 3PT% for each team in each scenario. I'm leaving the tightly contested number off as it makes up so few of the attempts.

Raptors 43, 36, 30
Spurs 33, 30, 25
Warriors 38, 32, 17
Celtics 33, 29, 33
Pacers 34, 30, 29

See? On wide open three pointers, there's massive variance from team to team. There is probably some level of skill there (who gets the open shots, for example), but a lot of that is noise.

Just look at the month by month break down for the Warriors, for example, in terms of 3PT% given up on wide open threes, of which they give up about 8 a game (again these are rough estimates on my part).

November: 30%
December: 60%
January: 40%

It can vary crazily. And those wide open shots make up close to half of all three pointers given up. Percentages on the other types of threes (in terms of coverage) will show the same variation - although in general the better the coverage the lower the percentage, of course. So really what you want to look at in terms of quality of three point defence is: raw quantity of three point attempts given up, and how many of those attempts are bad shots (contested threes, off the dribble threes) or good shots (catch and shoot, uncovered threes).

Very good analysis. Thanks for that. But in terms of raw quantity of three point attempts given up do we fare well in that situation at least?

[JWash]

Very good analysis. Thanks for that. But in terms of raw quantity of three point attempts given up do we fare well in that situation at least?

We're about average. Give up the 13th most 3PA per game at 23.7.

[GLF]

We're about average. Give up the 13th most 3PA per game at 23.7.

Okay well I guess that's not bad. If we were maybe top 10 or top 5 I would feel a little better but it is what it is. I hope Dan H is right.

[DanH]

Very good analysis. Thanks for that. But in terms of raw quantity of three point attempts given up do we fare well in that situation at least?

We give up the 12th most 3PA's per 100 possessions, in that middle band, not top 10 or bottom 10.

[GLF]

We give up the 12th most 3PA's per 100 possessions, in that middle band, not top 10 or bottom 10.

So how do you feel about that? Do you think it's good enough for how well we protect the paint or do you think it's something to worry about come playoff time?

[S.R.]

Just a couple of thoughts:
- How reliable is the "open shot" tracking data? There's tremendous variation in the quality of a shot contest. If Terrence Ross sails by a shooter at the moment of his release, will that qualify as tightly contested shot? Because it's a much lower quality contest than Shane Battier closing out properly and putting his hand right in your face. I think that can account for some well coached teams who have very low opp 3PT %'s.
- Doesn't the Raptors system give up more quality three's than a system keyed-in on preventing and contesting 3's? Seems to me the Raps' defense this year puts a higher priority on collapsing on dribble penetration into the paint. I haven't watched enough of the Spurs recently to see how they're balancing defending dribble penetration vs. perimeter shooting.
- Middle of the pack stats during the regular season generally (key word) puts you near the back of the pack in the playoffs.

I mean I don't think this is such a problem that it's going to be a key factor in deciding a playoff series, I do wonder if the Raptors should be okay with their three point defense being so average if they want to be a second or third round playoff team.

Or are the Raptors correct in putting an emphasis on collapsing on dribble penetration and allowing slightly above average opp 3 PT shooting in return?

[GLF]

Just a couple of thoughts:
- How reliable is the "open shot" tracking data? There's tremendous variation in the quality of a shot contest. If Terrence Ross sails by a shooter at the moment of his release, will that qualify as tightly contested shot? Because it's a much lower quality contest than Shane Battier closing out properly and putting his hand right in your face. I think that can account for some well coached teams who have very low opp 3PT %'s.
- Doesn't the Raptors system give up more quality three's than a system keyed-in on preventing and contesting 3's? Seems to me the Raps' defense this year puts a higher priority on collapsing on dribble penetration into the paint. I haven't watched enough of the Spurs recently to see how they're balancing defending dribble penetration vs. perimeter shooting.
- Middle of the pack stats during the regular season generally (key word) puts you near the back of the pack in the playoffs.

I mean I don't think this is such a problem that it's going to be a key factor in deciding a playoff series, I do wonder if the Raptors should be okay with their three point defense being so average if they want to be a second or third round playoff team.

Or are the Raptors correct in putting an emphasis on collapsing on dribble penetration and allowing slightly above average opp 3 PT shooting in return?

That's the same question I have. I don't know how Spurs do it but it can't be easy protecting the paint well AND the 3 point line well. I would like to know what we're doing wrong that they aren't. Because you don't want guys getting easy shots at the basket for sure so I'm glad we focus on manning the paint but we got to get better at contesting 3's when they are taken.

[3inthekeon]

[QUOTE=S.R.;587795]Just a couple of thoughts:
- How reliable is the "open shot" tracking data? /QUOTE]

That was a major debate last year between Vantage and NylonCalculus .

http://www1.vantagesports.com/Articl...AAjSEAAFIWKwSG

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/10/01/...sportvu-issue/

http://www1.vantagesports.com/Articl...AC4iEAAE8WK0fO

[S.R.]

[QUOTE=3inthekeon;587803]

Just a couple of thoughts:
- How reliable is the "open shot" tracking data? /QUOTE]

That was a major debate last year between Vantage and NylonCalculus .

http://www1.vantagesports.com/Articl...AAjSEAAFIWKwSG

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/10/01/...sportvu-issue/

http://www1.vantagesports.com/Articl...AC4iEAAE8WK0fO

Really interesting, thanks.

[JWash]

Part of the reason we give up a high 3P% is because of the way we defend pick and rolls this year.

[Barolt]

I still somewhat think we're overthinking this. Statistically, breaking it down by on/off... We give up 40.5% when Scola's on the floor, 34.4% when he's off. 38.4% when Lowry's's on the floor, 33.2% when he's off.

Those two are actually the biggest offenders, not DeMar. There's only a 2.1% difference for DeMar.

Going the other way, 33.8% when CoJo's on, versus 41.0% when he's off. 35.2% when 2Pat's on, 39.2% when he's off. 35.5% when Ross is on, 38.3% when he's off.

Our bench is just better defensively, by almost every measure.