Game 58 - Toronto Raptors 101 - Detroit Pistons 114

[3inthekeon]

*shudders*



Dafuq?

MU went and got Scola as a bench vet PF

Casey decided to play him as a full time starter that consistently gets murdered

Don't know how that makes MU bad at his job

Nowhere did I say Scola should start.

Obviously MU agreed with me that we did need another PF.

Never said MU was bad at his job.

[OldSkoolCool]

3inthekeon the response was directed at demographic shit

Also I think it's been pretty thoroughly covered as to why Scola coming off the bench is the simplest solution to our woes at this point.

I haven't looked at the numbers but I wonder what the success rate in the playoffs is when you look at the top three most used lineups (instead of best)...as it would seem as the rotation gets tighter in the playoffs those will be your top 8 guys

[3inthekeon]

Bismack and Joseph are the two players with which Scola has the highest net rating, of the pairings with a real sample size. That's the evidence that Scola is better against bench players.

Those 18 minutes against starters and those 18 minutes against bench players are two very different things.

BBref has Joseph/Scola +6.2 in 331 minutes, but Biyombo/Scola as -2.5 in 367 minutes.

I'm not saying Scola should start,. I agree Scola would be less of a liability against bench players than starters.

My preference would be to phase him out of the regular rotation altogether.

Patterson to the starting lineup, Thompson with the subs and Scola as insurance/spot duty.

[GLF]

What is starting to piss me off is if us regular people have this kind of information Dwane Casey and his staff definitely have this same information and stats. So that means Casey is purposely ignoring these stats and doesn't care. Which then means he won't change anything until it's too late. The thing I NEVER and will never understand about Casey is he prides himself on defense and talks about it all the time but then he plays guys like GV, Lou, Scola big minutes or puts them in matchups that they won't succeed in, constantly. How is our defense supposed to be good when you have a corpse guarding other team's starting power forward. Please tell me? Man I CANNOT WAIT UNTIL HE IS FIRED. CANNOT WAIT. We will lose in the first round because of him and then Masai is going to go and make drastic changes to the personnel probably when really we are talented enough other than the PF position. It's our coach that's the mess. Ugh! I'm actually getting more and more frustrated the more I think about how easy a solution this is and there is nothing I can do. So I must watch this team fall apart slowly because of ONE man. Smh.

[GLF]

Like Casey you can talk about effort defensively all you want, and don't get me wrong we had none last game, but at the end of the day Scola cannot physically do what we need him to do. That has nothing to do with effort. He is trying out there but he just cannot. Why Casey would put the man through this and have him lose his confidence and start to play like more shit day by day is just painful to witness. Let Scola come off the bench and be done with it. Jeezus Christ. Veterans and line up consistency will be the death of this man. Casey would probably have fucking Lebron James come off the damn bench if the bench line up was playing so well together with him in it.

[Chr1s1anL]

Why do you HAVE to start PP. There is no way to quantify what improvement in win loss there would be. None.
So it comes down to choice and what's been working. Winning almost 7 of 10 is good.

By playoff time you may see a lineup change...but I really doubt it. The continuity and success of the BB..TR..PP..CJ..unit is hard to walk away from.

Agreed, I think Casey would start Thompson before starting 2pat. Just like he would start Powell before starting Ross. He loves that bench unit. For good reason. Its been real successful.

Good timing to sign Thompson. 7 game home stand. A lot of practise time coming up.

[Demographic Shift]

There's no way to quantify it?

Let's try, and see if we can come up with one.

How about win probability?

http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/s...02-28&rate=tot

By win probability, Scola has been worth -0.06 wins this season, and Patterson has been worth 0.58 wins.

Maybe BPM?

Scola's a -1.6, Patterson's a +0.6.

On/off ratings?

We have a net rating of -2.5 when Scola's on the court, +10.0 when he's off. For Patterson it's +11.1 when he's on the court, -3.1 when he's off.

2-Man unit ratings with the other starters?

Scola: -3.0 with Lowry, -3.2 with DeMar, -0.6 with Carroll, -6.1 with JV.
Patterson: +19.0 with Lowry, +9.6 with DeMar, +3.1 with Carroll, +21.2 with JV.

Nope, definitely no way to quantify what improvement there'd be. They're practically the same player!

good math..
love the idea you have that you simply invent one..(Let's try, and see if we can come up with one.) and viola out of the magic randomizer laden with assumptions comes the answer.. :-)

but...
it doesn't explicity outline changing how many more wins and losses there would be if one player starts vs another.
None..it says one player plays better with another set of players... it doesn't in black letter show additional wins...

Its simply conjecture... just like the pre season algorithms that had the 4th place Heat and the tied for 8th place Bulls both finishing in the top 3...
You actually have to play the games instead of running simulations with sets of numbers...

[GLF]

good math..
love the idea you have that you simply invent one..
and viola out of the randomizer laden with assumptions comes the answer.. :-)

but...
it doesn't explicity outline changing how many more wins and losses there would be if one player starts vs another.
None..it says one player plays better with another set of players... it doesn't outline additional wins...

Its simply conjecture... just like the preason algorithms that had the 4th place Heat and the tied for 8th place Bulls both finishing in the top 3...

But its not like its just Scola that plays better when he comes off the bench. The starters play better without him in the lineup. I think it's common sense that if you have Scola individually playing better and the whole starting lineup playing better with Patterson in the fold we would win more games. Cause right now the starters aren't playing good with Scola AND Scola isn't playing good. Oh and The bench players play just fine with Scola so it's not like he's going to fuck up this amazing bench we have anyway.

[Chr1s1anL]

But its not like its just Scola that plays better when he comes off the bench. The starters play better without him in the lineup. I think it's common sense that if you have Scola individually playing better and the whole starting lineup playing better with Patterson in the fold we would win more games. Cause right now the starters aren't playing good with Scola AND Scola isn't playing good. Oh and The bench players play just fine with Scola so it's not like he's going to fuck up this amazing bench we have anyway.

Scola hasn't played one game off the bench. How has it been proven? Who starts doesn't matter. Its whose playing the the most and it's obviously 2pat.

[GLF]

Scola hasn't played one game off the bench. How has it been proven? Who starts doesn't matter. Its whose playing the the most and it's obviously 2pat.

The stats shows that he has a good net rating with pretty much all the other bench guys. Also as Dan H said he still plays 40% of the game. That's a lot of the game you are giving away by playing Scola against starters for that full amount of time. You can't always rely on Patterson to save us every time.

[Demographic Shift]

The stats shows that he has a good net rating with pretty much all the other bench guys. Also as Dan H said he still plays 40% of the game. That's a lot of the game you are giving away by playing Scola against starters for that full amount of time. You can't always rely on Patterson to save us every time.

The game once its tipped is fluid. Shit happens all the time. Guys get fast fouls. They get knicked up. They have off nights. Its not a static board game. Players come in and go out in with incredible frequency. This whole thing got its genesis when I asked the old professor mr school who he would play instead of Scola... while he put up a lot of thoughts on who should start and why it was Caseys fault for playing Scola as a starter he really can't answer who the alternative is because there is none. We only had two 4's that could play till today. We will have to see how much time Jason Thompson gets. My guess is that its going to be 5 or 7 mins in specific situations.

I am sure there are some pretty diligent stats beavers who can nail it down but from watching games it looks like Luis plays about 10 maybe 12 minutes a game with the starters as a unit. After that its all over the place.

Its not about who starts. To me its irrelevant. Others will spit fire and say we are always playing from behind. I think thats selective memory on some nights. We do play with leads coming out of the 1st Q. Again, the stats beavers can say how many times. I think we are either ahead or behind after the 1st Q by a middling 3 or 4 points more than 50% of the time. Then its about how you get to the end of the game with a lead and then who is on the floor to make sure you don't lose it and close it out. Our closing unit seems to be DD / KL / PP / CJ and offense/defense of JV and BB.
If Casey was playing Luis at closing time then I would be more in line with those who want to run Casey out of town on a rail. But he is not. Somebody has to play those 18 minutes during the course of the game at the 4 and since the GM didn't give the coach anyone else besides Scola... Scola it is. You can only play the guys you have on the bench.

[Barolt]

The game once its tipped is fluid. Shit happens all the time. Guys get fast fouls. They get knicked up. They have off nights. Its not a static board game. Players come in and go out in with incredible frequency. This whole thing got its genesis when I asked the old professor mr school who he would play instead of Scola... while he put up a lot of thoughts on who should start and why it was Caseys fault for playing Scola as a starter he really can't answer who the alternative is because there is none. We only had two 4's that could play till today. We will have to see how much time Jason Thompson gets. My guess is that its going to be 5 or 7 mins in specific situations.

I am sure there are some pretty diligent stats beavers who can nail it down but from watching games it looks like Luis plays about 10 maybe 12 minutes a game with the starters as a unit. After that its all over the place.

Its not about who starts. To me its irrelevant. Others will spit fire and say we are always playing from behind. I think thats selective memory on some nights. We do play with leads coming out of the 1st Q. Again, the stats beavers can say how many times. I think we are either ahead or behind after the 1st Q by a middling 3 or 4 points more than 50% of the time. Then its about how you get to the end of the game with a lead and then who is on the floor to make sure you don't lose it and close it out. Our closing unit seems to be DD / KL / PP / CJ and offense/defense of JV and BB.
If he was playing Luis at closing time then I would be more in line with those who want to run him out of town on a rail. But he is not. Somebody has to play those 18 minutes at the 4 and so far the GM didn't give the coach anyone else but Scola. You can only play the guys you have on the bench.

It's about who starts when you're losing the first 6 minutes of the game EVERY night. You just can't do that in the playoffs. You can't tell a team that they can just win the first 13% of the game, and you'll make it up later.

[Chr1s1anL]

The stats shows that he has a good net rating with pretty much all the other bench guys. Also as Dan H said he still plays 40% of the game. That's a lot of the game you are giving away by playing Scola against starters for that full amount of time. You can't always rely on Patterson to save us every time.

First of all 2pat isn't saving us. You guys are making way too big of a deal of this. Scola plays better with just Cojo pretty much. Even if Scola comes off the bench he will still be playing 40% of the game. The only way to solve the problem is to take him out the lineup. Before now(Thompson) Casey didn't have anyone else to play over him. After this 7 game home stand I could see Scola totally phased out of this rotation.

[tDotted]

What Scola is doing is unprecedented. Only big man in the history of this sport playing this shitty without missing a single start. Incredible. These were the win totals for the teams of the other bigs who played this much: 24, 41, and 20.

[GLF]

First of all 2pat isn't saving us. You guys are making way too big of a deal of this. Scola plays better with just Cojo pretty much. Even if Scola comes off the bench he will still be playing 40% of the game. The only way to solve the problem is to take him out the lineup. Before now(Thompson) Casey didn't have anyone else to play over him. After this 7 game home stand I could see Scola totally phased out of this rotation.

But what you guys aren't getting is it's not about the 18 mins. Yes he would play that anyway but he would be playing it against BENCH players which is the point we are trying to make. Scola is getting killed by starters. If his 18 mins are mostly against the opposition's bench I would like to think he wouldn't struggle as much because they are of lesser talent and our starting lineup would be a lot better. Being down in the first quarter constantly is not a good look. I swear there is some stat that like 70 something percent of the time the team that is up in the first quarter wins the game. It's just not a habit you want to get into in the playoffs.