Hero ball and the Raptors

[Barolt]

http://www.inpredictable.com/2016/02...all-index.html

Found an interesting article on hero ball, which seems to indicate that we're much more of a hero ball team this year than in any recent year. In fact, in the last 7 seasons, this year's Raptors rank 9th overall in terms of hero-ball in "double clutch" situations(the top 1% of shots in terms of potential impact on a team's chances of victory).

No team in the top ten for this category has won a championship, which seems potentially relevant.

Interestingly, last year our Gini Coefficient for all shot attempts was .211, indicating one of the top 15 spreads in the last 7 years in terms of total shot attempts. This year, our total coefficient is .312. We're concentrating our shot attempts much more on just a few players.

Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing is highly debatable. I'd argue that, for instance, Scola gets too many shots this year and JV/Ross/Patterson should get more. However, we're giving significant minutes to JJ/Bismack right now, who should never be shooting too much, which should bring our Gini Coefficient up for shot attempts.

[KHD]

http://www.inpredictable.com/2016/02...all-index.html

Found an interesting article on hero ball, which seems to indicate that we're much more of a hero ball team this year than in any recent year. In fact, in the last 7 seasons, this year's Raptors rank 9th overall in terms of hero-ball in "double clutch" situations(the top 1% of shots in terms of potential impact on a team's chances of victory).

No team in the top ten for this category has won a championship, which seems potentially relevant.

Interestingly, last year our Gini Coefficient for all shot attempts was .211, indicating one of the top 15 spreads in the last 7 years in terms of total shot attempts. This year, our total coefficient is .312. We're concentrating our shot attempts much more on just a few players.

Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing is highly debatable. I'd argue that, for instance, Scola gets too many shots this year and JV/Ross/Patterson should get more. However, we're giving significant minutes to JJ/Bismack right now, who should never be shooting too much, which should bring our Gini Coefficient up for shot attempts.

If you move the majority of Scola's shots to JV and maybe a few of Lowry/Demar's shots go to him and other players, I wouldn't really have a major issue with the overall shot distribution... for the first 3 quarters of the games anyway.

The late game over-reliance on ISO has and will kill us, though.

[Barolt]

If you move the majority of Scola's shots to JV and maybe a few of Lowry/Demar's shots go to him and other players, I wouldn't really have a major issue with the overall shot distribution... for the first 3 quarters of the games anyway.

The late game over-reliance on ISO has and will kill us, though.

Amazingly, the Miami Heat championship teams both had better spreads of shot distribution in crunch time that we do this year, despite LeBron and Wade being on those teams.

[JWash]

Amazingly, the Miami Heat championship teams both had better spreads of shot distribution in crunch time that we do this year, despite LeBron and Wade being on those teams.

and Chris Bosh, and Ray Allen... or do they not count?

[hotfuzz]

Looking at your graph, it seems all the contenders are kinda high. OKC, CLE, OKC, SAS are all on the top end.

Amazingly, the Miami Heat championship teams both had better spreads of shot distribution in crunch time that we do this year, despite LeBron and Wade being on those teams.

That's because Lebron and Wade are amazing passers.

[iblastoff]

http://www.inpredictable.com/2016/02...all-index.html

Found an interesting article on hero ball, which seems to indicate that we're much more of a hero ball team this year than in any recent year. In fact, in the last 7 seasons, this year's Raptors rank 9th overall in terms of hero-ball in "double clutch" situations(the top 1% of shots in terms of potential impact on a team's chances of victory).

No team in the top ten for this category has won a championship, which seems potentially relevant.

Interestingly, last year our Gini Coefficient for all shot attempts was .211, indicating one of the top 15 spreads in the last 7 years in terms of total shot attempts. This year, our total coefficient is .312. We're concentrating our shot attempts much more on just a few players.

Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing is highly debatable. I'd argue that, for instance, Scola gets too many shots this year and JV/Ross/Patterson should get more. However, we're giving significant minutes to JJ/Bismack right now, who should never be shooting too much, which should bring our Gini Coefficient up for shot attempts.

how so? cavs, warriors, spurs, okc, are also in the top 10 this year. which pretty much goes against any potential relevance of high hero-ball double clutch usage as being a deterrent to win the championship.

as for debatability of whether high coefficient value is good or bad? completely depends on the team. philly has the lowest coefficient for all normal shot attempts this year. does that mean they should be winning more? no, cause they suck shit.

gsw is known for sharing the ball and yet they somehow have the highest coefficient for all normal shot attempts this year? hmm.

[Barolt]

how so? cavs, warriors, spurs, okc, are also in the top 10 this year. which pretty much goes against any potential relevance of high hero-ball double clutch usage as being a deterrent to win the championship.

as for debatability of whether high coefficient value is good or bad? completely depends on the team. philly has the lowest coefficient for all normal shot attempts this year. does that mean they should be winning more? no, cause they suck shit.

gsw is known for sharing the ball and yet they somehow have the highest coefficient for all normal shot attempts this year? hmm.

Did you read my last paragraph?

"Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing is highly debatable."

I was posting an interesting article for discussion, wasn't simply saying it was bad.

[iblastoff]

Did you read my last paragraph?

"Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing is highly debatable."

I was posting an interesting article for discussion, wasn't simply saying it was bad.

uh yes i did. and i responded to it directly. did you read my second paragraph?

this is a terrible debate so far.

[octothorp]

Yeah, I'm not sure it's really a useful measurement. Ideally, you want to have players you can count on in the clutch, but you also want your opponents to respect the rest of your team. Or, you want your opponents to not respect the rest of your team and have your own stars smart enough to pass out to open players (such as Washington collapsing on DeRozan on the assumption that he's not going to pass, and him finding Joseph wide open).

Great teams probably have that pick-your-poison balance: star players who can burn you if they don't respect them, but who will also make the right pass if you respect them too much. I'm not sure this stat shows it. I'd like to see a metric like this but which uses assists as well... how many of a team's clutch attempts are a result of a star player assisting on another player's attempt, or a result of another player assisting on a star player's attempt.