Game 59 - Utah Jazz 94 - Toronto Raptors 104

[slaw]

This is fair.

Would you consider it relevant that when behind or tied in last 5 minutes/5 or less differential Lowry/DeMar have a combined 65.3% usage, and DeMar's eFG% is 38.7% in these scenarios?

In checking for noise: 2nd highest usage, 2nd highest eFG% in his career in this situation. Last year he was better at 43.4% eFG%.

Relevant to what? Not sure what that means. Relevant to winning games? Well, they are 40-19, so, if those numbers are "bad" they certainly don't seem to be negatively impacting the win-loss column. Relevant to an evaluation of the player? Sure. Are his numbers materially worse than similar players in similar situations? Is the fact he's on the floor in those situations relevant outside of his shooting percentages? How does he impact his teammates in the clutch? Is the team better with him out there? Do his numbers fall off more than other similar players in similar situations?

I'm not sure how referring to last year is 'checking for noise' or even what you mean by that. I haven't run any numbers but, if I had to guess, it would be that all players given enough time and opportunity generally fall fairly close to their full game numbers in the clutch with some observable downgrade due to the circumstances of late game situations.

[Just Is]

Did you not see Curry's 3 point game winner against the Thunder? I'm okay with him having a 100% usage in those type of situations.

That was an absolutely horrible and unneeded shot that had no business going in.

Curry is in a league of his own at this point. Even 2K can't replicate that stuff.

[OldSkoolCool]

This is fair.

Would you consider it relevant that when behind or tied in last 5 minutes/5 or less differential Lowry/DeMar have a combined 65.3% usage, and DeMar's eFG% is 38.7% in these scenarios?

In checking for noise: 2nd highest usage, 2nd highest eFG% in his career in this situation. Last year he was better at 43.4% eFG%.

#payhimthemax /pink

[JWash]

In clutch situations. The top players on the team are going to have higher usage than normal because you go to your best guys more when you need a basket. It's not rocket science. Idk why we have to sit here and pull up stats and act like we're confused by the numbers. You put the ball in the hands of your best players in clutch situations.

[A.I]

Why eFG%? So much of his game is free throws. His TS% is a poor but acceptable (scoring in the clutch is HARD) 51%. Also, carries a 2:1 AST:TO ratio and a +8 on-court net rating.

Not concerned about this team in the clutch. Every team goes to their stars in the clutch - it's nice we have two we can go to, and a bunch of other guys that can step up if they need to.

You know Steph has a 43% usage in those situations, right? That's the ball movement team to end all ball movement teams.

Did you not see Curry's 3 point game winner against the Thunder? I'm okay with him having a 100% usage in those type of situations.

[Barolt]

Why eFG%? So much of his game is free throws. His TS% is a poor but acceptable (scoring in the clutch is HARD) 51%. Also, carries a 2:1 AST:TO ratio and a +8 on-court net rating.

Not concerned about this team in the clutch. Every team goes to their stars in the clutch - it's nice we have two we can go to, and a bunch of other guys that can step up if they need to.

You know Steph has a 43% usage in those situations, right? That's the ball movement team to end all ball movement teams.

Steph is historically great offensively though. He has 78.1% true shooting in those situations. If we had a guy who shot like that, I'd say give him the ball every time too.

EDIT: And I used eFG% because I still believe the whistle might fail us in the playoffs. One or two games with a reluctant whistle can be fatal if you rely too much on FTs.

[DanH]

This is fair.

Would you consider it relevant that when behind or tied in last 5 minutes/5 or less differential Lowry/DeMar have a combined 65.3% usage, and DeMar's eFG% is 38.7% in these scenarios?

In checking for noise: 2nd highest usage, 2nd highest eFG% in his career in this situation. Last year he was better at 43.4% eFG%.

Why eFG%? So much of his game is free throws. His TS% is a poor but acceptable (scoring in the clutch is HARD) 51%. Also, carries a 2:1 AST:TO ratio and a +8 on-court net rating.

Not concerned about this team in the clutch. Every team goes to their stars in the clutch - it's nice we have two we can go to, and a bunch of other guys that can step up if they need to.

You know Steph has a 43% usage in those situations, right? That's the ball movement team to end all ball movement teams.

[Barolt]

Man I check out stats a lot too, but seriously if you look hard enough there's so much negative stuff you can point out it's not even funny. Some things you just have to overlook them. The clutch stats you referred to are really specific and we've only seen a few of those situations this season. That's what I was getting at with the Lowry thing. It's easy to look at the stats and deduce "Oh look Sundays are an issue for Lowry" but obviously when you apply context and some common sense it's clear that's just random and not really the case.

This is fair.

Would you consider it relevant that when behind or tied in last 5 minutes/5 or less differential Lowry/DeMar have a combined 65.3% usage, and DeMar's eFG% is 38.7% in these scenarios?

In checking for noise: 2nd highest usage, 2nd highest eFG% in his career in this situation. Last year he was better at 43.4% eFG%.

[JWash]

I admitted in my next post that we're fine in the clutch, for the most part. It was just a stat I ran across and felt like sharing.

Good on you for not just replying to every post I make with rampant sarcasm.

Man I check out stats a lot too, but seriously if you look hard enough there's so much negative stuff you can point out it's not even funny. Some things you just have to overlook them. The clutch stats you referred to are really specific and we've only seen a few of those situations this season. That's what I was getting at with the Lowry thing. It's easy to look at the stats and deduce "Oh look Sundays are an issue for Lowry" but obviously when you apply context and some common sense it's clear that's just random and not really the case.

[Barolt]

You know what concerns me? Lowry's performance on Sundays.

In 10 Sunday games this year he's averaging 17-5-7 while shooting 37% from the field and having a TS% of 51.7%. This tells me that Lowry is taking the colloquialism "Sunday is the day of rest" literally and not showing up for these games. God forbid we play a game 7 on a Sunday and this joke artist decides to put up one of his usual Sunday clunkers.

Oh and just to add to his Sunday woes? Lowry's blocked layup against the Nets in Game 7 of the 2014 playoffs... guess what fucking day of the week that happened on? Sunday.

#BenchLowryonSundays

I admitted in my next post that we're fine in the clutch, for the most part. It was just a stat I ran across and felt like sharing.

Good on you for not just replying to every post I make with rampant sarcasm.

[JWash]

Can someone tell me why this stat doesn't actually matter?

In games with a 2pt or less differential in the last minute, we have a 8-10 record, 110.5 DRtg, 38% eFG% and play at a pace of 131.05 possessions/48 minutes.(4th fastest in the league)

You know what concerns me? Lowry's performance on Sundays.

In 10 Sunday games this year he's averaging 17-5-7 while shooting 37% from the field and having a TS% of 51.7%. This tells me that Lowry is taking the colloquialism "Sunday is the day of rest" literally and not showing up for these games. God forbid we play a game 7 on a Sunday and this joke artist decides to put up one of his usual Sunday clunkers.

Oh and just to add to his Sunday woes? Lowry's blocked layup against the Nets in Game 7 of the 2014 playoffs... guess what fucking day of the week that happened on? Sunday.

#BenchLowryonSundays

[Nilanka]

Didn't something like this happen last year too? I thought Some random semi-famous person was shitting on us on Twitter last year too.

I don't remember hearing anything. But wouldn't be surprised if it was her.

[Barolt]

For the record, I was pulling clutch stats on another team for something completely unrelated and ran into those numbers, and was just curious. We really aren't that bad in the clutch.

[Barolt]

Because it is a sample size of 18 minutes or less spread over an entire season? Half that DRTG could be because of intentional fouls to stop the clock. Last minute and 2 pt differential is unnecessarily narrow - teams don't play much different (besides intentional fouls when down) in the last minute compared to the last 2 or 3, and within two points is not really any different than 3 or 5 points.

For clutch points I always use 5 minutes, 5 points, as those are the largest settings allowed under "clutch stats" at NBA.com and provide the largest sample.

This is fair, but sample sizes in 'double clutch' situations are never going to be decent sized over a single season.

[Mess]

Can someone tell me why this stat doesn't actually matter?

In games with a 2pt or less differential in the last minute, we have a 8-10 record, 110.5 DRtg, 38% eFG% and play at a pace of 131.05 possessions/48 minutes.(4th fastest in the league)

So out of their 19 losses they were within 2 points in the last minute of the game for 10 of them.