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The infamous Biyombo/JV Offense-Defense substitution

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  • The infamous Biyombo/JV Offense-Defense substitution

    Casey gets criticized a lot for the Jonas/Biyombo offense/defense substitution. Most of us don't think Biyombo is enough of an upgrade defensively (or even one at all) over Jonas to justify constantly swapping the two of them out between possessions. I've been trying to see if maybe there's actually a statistical justification for doing this, so I went and had a look at the RR-favourite lineup stats on NBA.com to see what came up.

    Here are our two usual closeout lineups (w/o Carroll since he's barely touched the court this year):

    Lowry/CoJo/DeMar/2Pat/JV - 110.3 dRTG, +16.3 netRTG (86 mins in 25 games)

    then when you sub out JV for Biyombo

    Lowry/CoJo/DeMar/2Pat/Biyombo - 94.8 dRTG, +19.7 netRTG (136 mins in 40 games)

    So perhaps there is a method to his madness here. I've gotten annoyed by Casey doing this before, but based on the lineup stats it actually does cause a 15.5 decrease (good thing) in dRTG when we sub out JV for Biyombo in that lineup. Likewise the offense increases from 114.5 to 126.6 so an increase of 12.1.

  • #2
    Goddamnit, how did I mis-type substitution in the title? Can someone fix that please lol

    EDIT: Nvm fixed it myself

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    • #3
      Those 2 five man units wont be closing games in the 4th. Carroll must be included since the enitre reason he's here is to help in the playoffs. If carroll isnt closing games whats the point of giving him that contract?
      "Both teams played hard my man" - Sheed

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      • #4
        MACK11 wrote: View Post
        Those 2 five man units wont be closing games in the 4th. Carroll must be included since the enitre reason he's here is to help in the playoffs. If carroll isnt closing games whats the point of giving him that contract?
        The thread isn't really about Carroll... There's no point using the lineups with him in them because there's very little data since he hasn't played much. What I'm trying to highlight is the change in oRTG/dRTG that occurs when we swap JV for Biyombo in the lineups that we use to close out games.

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        • #5
          JWash wrote: View Post
          The thread isn't really about Carroll... There's no point using the lineups with him in them because there's very little data since he hasn't played much. What I'm trying to highlight is the change in oRTG/dRTG that occurs when we swap JV for Biyombo in the lineups that we use to close out games.
          Well JV hasnt played much in the 4th either
          "Both teams played hard my man" - Sheed

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          • #6
            the problem, if i recall correctly, with these kind of comparisons is as follows:

            when you're looking at limited minutes, compounded by an O/D swap, you won't have equal # of offensive/defensive posessions to compare the 2 lineups, even if the minute totals are similar.

            I'll have to go back and look at the definitions of those stats to be sure.
            Last edited by KHD; Sat Mar 19th, 2016, 05:54 PM.

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            • #7
              How about the lineup we actually should be closing games with until Carroll is back:

              Lowry/DeMar/Ross/Patterson/JV: 129.2 ORTG/96.5 DRTG, +32.7 net rating in 68 minutes. 66.4% true shooting.

              EDIT:

              For comparison, the Bismack variation of that group:

              Lowry/DeMar/Ross/Patterson/Bismack: 98.0 ORTG/107.5 DRTG, -9.5 net rating in 97 minutes, 52.7% true shooting.

              The single worst offensive lineup over 50 minutes.
              Last edited by Barolt; Sat Mar 19th, 2016, 06:56 PM.
              twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

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              • #8
                Barolt wrote: View Post
                How about the lineup we actually should be closing games with until Carroll is back:

                Lowry/DeMar/Ross/Patterson/JV: 129.2 ORTG/96.5 DRTG, +32.7 net rating in 68 minutes. 66.4% true shooting.

                EDIT:

                For comparison, the Bismack variation of that group:

                Lowry/DeMar/Ross/Patterson/Bismack: 98.0 ORTG/107.5 DRTG, -9.5 net rating in 97 minutes, 52.7% true shooting.

                The single worst offensive lineup over 50 minutes.
                But I'm talking about what Casey is actually doing in games at the end. We don't play that lineup you posted at the end of games.

                Casey alternates between the two lineups I posted in the clutch, both exactly the same except for the change at center. He uses one for defensive purposes and one for offensive. I have thought, like many others, that this makes little to no sense. But the stats seem to actually agree with what Casey is doing...

                Why are we now being dismissive of the lineup stats when they say something that we don't like?

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                • #9
                  KHD wrote: View Post
                  the problem, if i recall correctly, with these kind of comparisons is as follows:

                  when you're looking at limited minutes, compounded by an O/D swap, you won't have equal # of offensive/defensive posessions to compare the 2 lineups, even if the minute totals are similar.

                  I'll have to go back and look at the definitions of those stats to be sure.
                  ORTG and DRTG are possession based, so DRTG is points given up per defensive possession and ORTG is points scored per offensive possession. If you used raw plus minutes you'd get a problem caused by subs, but the ratings are purely on a possession basis.
                  twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                  • #10
                    I have no issue with offence - defence subs, especially in certain matchups. I definitely have an issue with Biyombo closing out the game on both ends, which seems a more common occurrence than the offence-defence subs.
                    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                    • #11
                      JWash wrote: View Post
                      But I'm talking about what Casey is actually doing in games at the end. We don't play that lineup you posted at the end of games.

                      Casey alternates between the two lineups I posted in the clutch, both exactly the same except for the change at center. He uses one for defensive purposes and one for offensive. I have thought, like many others, that this makes little to no sense. But the stats seem to actually agree with what Casey is doing...

                      Why are we now being dismissive of the lineup stats when they say something that we don't like?
                      What I'm saying is, Bismack isn't automatically better than JV in defense because that one lineup is better with the Bismack variation.

                      In clutch situations, the only player on our team with a better net rating than JV is Patterson. The bottom two(disregarding Carroll and JJ for sample sizes) are CoJo and DeMar. 3rd last is Bismack.

                      Maybe our clutch lineups just aren't working?
                      twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

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                      • #12
                        Barolt wrote: View Post
                        What I'm saying is, Bismack isn't automatically better than JV in defense because that one lineup is better with the Bismack variation.

                        In clutch situations, the only player on our team with a better net rating than JV is Patterson. The bottom two(disregarding Carroll and JJ for sample sizes) are CoJo and DeMar. 3rd last is Bismack.

                        Maybe our clutch lineups just aren't working?
                        I'm not saying that Biyombo is a better defender than JV. That's not the topic of this thread. It's whether Casey's offense-defense substitutions with JV/Biyombo actually make sense or not.

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                        • #13
                          JWash wrote: View Post
                          I'm not saying that Biyombo is a better defender than JV. That's not the topic of this thread. It's whether Casey's offense-defense substitutions with JV/Biyombo actually make sense or not.
                          No, they don't.

                          Because even defensively, in the clutch, JV grabs 32.8% of available defensive rebounds, and only turns the ball over 4.5% of the time.

                          Bismack grabs 29.1% of available defensive rebounds, and has a turnover ratio of 26.2%.

                          I'd rather have the guy who grabs more rebounds, and doesn't turn it over on more than a quarter of his touches.
                          twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

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                          • #14
                            JWash wrote: View Post
                            I'm not saying that Biyombo is a better defender than JV. That's not the topic of this thread. It's whether Casey's offense-defense substitutions with JV/Biyombo actually make sense or not.
                            It really doesn't as the difference is marginal defensively while tremendous offensively. That and, if it really was about offensive/defensive, JV wouldn't be the only one being subbed off.

                            Honestly, it boils down to trust; and Casey just doesn't trust JV and at this point, I don't think there's anything that can be done to change it.
                            "My biggest concern as a coach is to not confuse winning with progress." - Steve Kerr
                            "If it's unacceptable in defeat, it's unacceptable in victory." - Jeff Van Gundy

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                            • #15
                              Just Is wrote: View Post
                              It really doesn't as the difference is marginal defensively while tremendous offensively. That and, if it really was about offensive/defensive, JV wouldn't be the only one being subbed off.

                              Honestly, it boils down to trust; and Casey just doesn't trust JV and at this point, I don't think there's anything that can be done to change it.

                              Thats it!
                              "Both teams played hard my man" - Sheed

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