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The infamous Biyombo/JV Offense-Defense substitution

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  • #16
    DanH wrote: View Post
    ORTG and DRTG are possession based, so DRTG is points given up per defensive possession and ORTG is points scored per offensive possession. If you used raw plus minutes you'd get a problem caused by subs, but the ratings are purely on a possession basis.
    right. but you can still have a different number of offensive vs. defensive possessions even with similar minutes, correct? especially, i would think, in the case of an O/D swap.

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    • #17
      DanH wrote: View Post
      I have no issue with offence - defence subs, especially in certain matchups. I definitely have an issue with Biyombo closing out the game on both ends, which seems a more common occurrence than the offence-defence subs.
      yes. this is the big issue.

      And once you make the defensive sub, it's quite likely you're gonna play at least one O posession with Bismack on the floor. Which is just not good.

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      • #18
        KHD wrote: View Post
        right. but you can still have a different number of offensive vs. defensive possessions even with similar minutes, correct? especially, i would think, in the case of an O/D swap.
        You absolutely can - it will just have zero impact on the ORTG and DRTG (and therefore the net rating).
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • #19
          DanH wrote: View Post
          You absolutely can - it will just have zero impact on the ORTG and DRTG (and therefore the net rating).
          yeah but i'm a lot more willing to trust, for example, an ORTG calculated from 100 posessions than one from 20.

          what i'm saying is rather than minutes played I want to see the # of posessions used in the calculation. In regular play I suspect minutes is a close enough surrogate. but in specific O/D situations, maybe not?

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          • #20
            KHD wrote: View Post
            yeah but i'm a lot more willing to trust, for example, an ORTG calculated from 100 posessions than one from 20.

            what i'm saying is rather than minutes played I want to see the # of posessions used in the calculation. In regular play I suspect minutes is a close enough surrogate. but in specific O/D situations, maybe not?
            The whole point of O/DRTG is to remove possession bias (raw points scored/allowed). Everything's scaled to to be based on 100 possessions through the formula.

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            • #21
              tDotted wrote: View Post
              The whole point of O/DRTG is to remove possession bias (raw points scored/allowed). Everything's scaled to to be based on 100 possessions through the formula.
              i get that.

              i'm asking about the sample size in the context of an O/D swap.

              If biyombo plays 1 offensive possession and 10 defensive ones, and JV the inverse, there's not much use in comparing their ORtg and DRtg against each other.

              So, these are 2 lineups that have played 130 and 85 minutes. Is that enough data to overcome that?

              or am i missing something?

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              • #22
                KHD wrote: View Post
                i get that.

                i'm asking about the sample size in the context of an O/D swap.

                If biyombo plays 1 offensive possession and 10 defensive ones, and JV the inverse, there's not much use in comparing their ORtg and DRtg against each other.

                So, these are 2 lineups that have played 130 and 85 minutes. Is that enough data to overcome that?

                or am i missing something?
                It's a good question. I don't think we have an answer though, not easy to get specifics about possessions that way.
                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                • #23
                  Is JV ever going to have a break out season? I'm now at the point where I would take Biyombo over JV any time.

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                  • #24
                    Fastwalking wrote: View Post
                    Is JV ever going to have a break out season? I'm now at the point where I would take Biyombo over JV any time.
                    Maybe if he gets the opportunities to have a break out season...Either way, he has improved every single season.

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                    • #25
                      Fastwalking wrote: View Post
                      Is JV ever going to have a break out season? I'm now at the point where I would take Biyombo over JV any time.
                      Is he ever going to be better than one of the best big men in the league with the limited minutes and usage we give him you mean?

                      I guess he could go up from prime Dwight efficiency to prime Hakeem efficiency, but that might be asking a bit much. Maybe him breaking out requires him being on the court and touching the ball instead.
                      twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

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                      • #26
                        Fastwalking wrote: View Post
                        Is JV ever going to have a break out season? I'm now at the point where I would take Biyombo over JV any time.
                        JV can't go rip the ball put of derozans hands and go throw a running hook shot. He's basically averaging as many pts as you could reasonably ask for the touches he gets.

                        His points per game HAVE slowly risen year to year, I believe we have an 18 pt 10 reb center right in front of us and they're not interested in doing that
                        It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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                        • #27
                          JV's usage has increased every year. Just relax and be patient guys he is going to eventually work his way into a suitably large role. There's no need to rush.

                          Hell JV has already broken 20% usage, Marc Gasol didn't break that until his 6th season when he was 29-30 years old.

                          I of course think JV has higher offensive upside than Marc (at least as a scorer, probably not as a passer), but there's no need to be in a hurry with his development. He's doing great.
                          Last edited by JWash; Thu Mar 24th, 2016, 07:53 PM.

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                          • #28
                            JWash wrote: View Post
                            JV's usage has increased every year. Just relax and be patient guys he is going to eventually work his way into a suitably large role. There's no need to rush.

                            Hell JV has already broken 20% usage, Marc Gasol didn't break that until his 6th season when he was 29-30 years old.

                            I of course think JV has higher offensive upside than Marc (at least as a scorer, probably not as a passer), but there's no need to be in a hurry with his development. He's doing great.
                            One thing I've been looking at is how much of that usage increase is the team using him more, and how much is him just getting more offensive boards, most of which end up as put-backs.

                            His usage went up to 20.6 possessions per 100 team possessions from 19.1 last year. His OREB/100 went from 5.3 to 6.2. So of the 1.5 possession increase, it appears more than half of them came from him getting more offensive boards and put-back opportunities.

                            Combine that with his minutes pattern (28.2. 26.2, 25.8) and the number of possessions he gets run through him as a function of the offence per game is probably going down, not up, or holding steady at best.
                            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                            • #29
                              Barolt wrote: View Post
                              Is he ever going to be better than one of the best big men in the league with the limited minutes and usage we give him you mean?

                              I guess he could go up from prime Dwight efficiency to prime Hakeem efficiency, but that might be asking a bit much. Maybe him breaking out requires him being on the court and touching the ball instead.
                              Technically, Hakeem was less efficient than Dwight at his peak.

                              EDIT: If it's not obvious, I would take Hakeem out of the two and never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever look back.

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