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Game #74: Toronto Raptors vs. Atlanta Hawks - Mar. 30/16 7:30 PM EST on TSN

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  • S.R. wrote: View Post
    The problem with using that stat to come up with that conclusion is it's assuming homecourt is the only variable affecting the outcome. So many stats like that, "higher seed with home court wins x% of the time," "the team wins when they win the first and/or fourth quarter x% of the time," "the team wins when they hold the opposition to under 100 points x% of the time," "the team wins x% of the time when Player A scores x number of points," etc., is that these facts are not necessarily predictive - they're also descriptive about what happens when a better team plays a worse team. I'd bet at least 76% of the time the 4th seed is a legitimately better team than the 5th seed. So was homecourt the deciding factor, or was the 4th seed just a better team?

    You could at least narrow it a bit by only taking the winning % from games 5+7, because series finishing in games 4 or 6 didn't even conclude with a homecourt advantage (not in # of home games played during the series).

    I mean NBA teams are clearly better at home than on the road overall, but you can support that with any home vs. away winning %. The seeding in a playoff series is a huge variable making noise for conclusions re: the impact of homecourt advantage.
    Challenging criteria, but not impossible to provide.

    Last year, the lower seed won game 5 just twice and lost 9 times.

    Since 2010, 48 wins by the team with home court and 14 wins by the road (lower seeded) team. Game 7 is 12-3.

    So total, since 2010, the higher seed wins 60-17 when playing games 5 & 7 at home; 77.9% of the time.
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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    • First round since 2010 - road teams are 82-141.
      Second round since 2010 - roads teams are 46 - 67.
      Conference Finals 17-38
      NBA Finals 12 - 17.

      (Edit - This is for all road games, not just games 5-7)
      Last edited by Axel; Fri Apr 1st, 2016, 12:10 PM.
      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

      Comment

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