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Kyle Lowry's Elbow Injury - to rest, or not to rest...

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  • Barolt wrote: View Post
    Since the initial injury, he's played more minutes per game than anyone else in the NBA!

    http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#...sort=MIN&dir=1

    That's the opposite of rest.
    He had about 5 rest days. From the night of March 20th to the day of March 25th.

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    • JWash wrote: View Post
      I didn't say each lottery ticket is an independent event. I said each time you play is an independent event, regardless of how many tickets you buy. Whether you won or lost the previous time has no impact on the result of the second play or the third or fourth, etc.
      The bold is just plain wrong, when you're talking about the same lottery, which is exactly what Nilanka was suggesting.

      If Lowry plays 40 minutes a game, he has a much bigger risk of injury than he would if he only played 30 minutes. Not only does he have more opportunity to get injured, but fatigue is a proven cause of injury, which increases along with his minutes played.

      In the lottery example, each weekly draw does present new, unrelated odds. However, I'd argue that sports are different, because there is cumulative wear-and-tear and fatigue, which increases as the season goes on. Heavy minutes played + many games played = an increasing injury potential, especially when a guy has already acquired nagging injuries.

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      • Nilanka wrote: View Post
        You're misunderstanding the cumulative effect individual events can play in probability theory.
        No I'm not.

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        • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
          The bold is just plain wrong, when you're talking about the same lottery, which is exactly what Nilanka was suggesting.

          If Lowry plays 40 minutes a game, he has a much bigger risk of injury than he would if he only played 30 minutes. Not only does he have more opportunity to get injured, but fatigue is a proven cause of injury, which increases along with his minutes played.

          In the lottery example, each weekly draw does present new, unrelated odds. However, I'd argue that sports are different, because there is cumulative wear-and-tear and fatigue, which increases as the season goes on. Heavy minutes played + many games played = an increasing injury potential, especially when a guy has already acquired nagging injuries.
          No it isn't wrong.

          If I buy 3 tickets and win the lottery, that doesn't mean that buying 4 the next time is going to result in a win.

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          • JWash wrote: View Post
            No it isn't wrong.

            If I buy 3 tickets and win the lottery, that doesn't mean that buying 4 the next time is going to result in a win.
            It does mean that your overall chances buying 4 tickets will always be better than the chances buying 3.

            The results don't change the probability.

            If you flip a coin 10 times and get heads each time, that doesn't mean your chances of getting heads was 100%.
            twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

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            • Barolt wrote: View Post
              It does mean that your overall chances buying 4 tickets will always be better than the chances buying 3.

              The results don't change the probability.

              If you flip a coin 10 times and get heads each time, that doesn't mean your chances of getting heads was 100%.
              Wait what? I'm not saying that.

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              • JWash wrote: View Post
                No it isn't wrong.

                If I buy 3 tickets and win the lottery, that doesn't mean that buying 4 the next time is going to result in a win.
                You're the only person talking about different lotteries. It's about playing the same lottery more, to increase your chances in that specific lottery.

                Playing more minutes in the same game is the analogy.

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                • JWash wrote: View Post
                  No I'm not.
                  I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 10.

                  If I give you 1 guess, you have a 10% chance of guessing right.

                  If I give you 2 guesses, your odds of guessing right increases to 20% (regardless of the fact that each individual guess only presents a 10% probability of guessing right).

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                  • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                    You're the only person talking about different lotteries. It's about playing the same lottery more, to increase your chances in that specific lottery.

                    Playing more minutes in the same game is the analogy.
                    Yeah it does.

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                    • JWash wrote: View Post
                      I didn't say each lottery ticket is an independent event. I said each time you play is an independent event, regardless of how many tickets you buy. Whether you won or lost the previous time has no impact on the result of the second play or the third or fourth, etc.
                      For sure.

                      Consider each minute played on the court a 20-sided die. Every time you are on the court for a minute, there is some random chance of getting an injury. Per minute, injuries are rare. But sometimes crazy random things happen and in one minute an injury can happen. 1 in 20 is obviously the wrong probability but it is long odds, which is the point.

                      Let's say if you roll the die once, if you roll a "1", you get injured.

                      Are you more likely to roll a "1" if you only roll the die once, or if you roll it twice?

                      Are you more likely to roll a "1" if you roll it 33 times a night or 39 times a night?
                      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                      • Nilanka wrote: View Post
                        I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 10.

                        If I give you 1 guess, you have a 10% chance of guessing right.

                        If I give you 2 guesses, your odds of guessing right increases to 20% (regardless of the fact that each individual guess only presents a 10% probability of guessing right).
                        Actually no it doesn't.

                        It would increase to 21% because there would only be 9 numbers left on the second guess.

                        Now tell me I need to take that class again

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                        • Guys I already took this class the probability word problems are fun but let's get back to the topic please.

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                          • "I'm digging the 44-min game experiment Oct 19th between Nets/Celtics.. Less wear n tear on players bodies, quicker game time." - Reggie Miller

                            Also from http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...son/17264233/:

                            At the NBA coaches meeting last month, length of games was a topic, and it was suggested the NBA consider a shorter format that would reduce the length of game as a means to reduce minutes for some players and maybe improve the flow of the game.

                            "We have looked at everything that we do and are taking a fresh look at all the different things we do," Thorn said. "One of the things that keeps coming up is our schedule and the length of our games. … Our coaches talked about it, and a lot of them seemed to be in favor of at least taking a look at it. We talked with our competition committee, and they were in favor of taking a look at it."


                            It should be noted that some players can handle the current workload. Nobody's worried about them - they're worried about the guys who can't.

                            There's no easy solution aside from a coach managing his own roster. Shorter games, for example, may mean the starters still get the same mpg but the bench guys get less. Nothing the league can do would force a coach to play a certain player a certain amount of minutes within a game.
                            "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                            • We're not even talking about minutes right now though? People are advocating Lowry to not play at all.

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                              • S.R. wrote: View Post
                                "I'm digging the 44-min game experiment Oct 19th between Nets/Celtics.. Less wear n tear on players bodies, quicker game time." - Reggie Miller

                                Also from http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...son/17264233/:

                                At the NBA coaches meeting last month, length of games was a topic, and it was suggested the NBA consider a shorter format that would reduce the length of game as a means to reduce minutes for some players and maybe improve the flow of the game.

                                "We have looked at everything that we do and are taking a fresh look at all the different things we do," Thorn said. "One of the things that keeps coming up is our schedule and the length of our games. … Our coaches talked about it, and a lot of them seemed to be in favor of at least taking a look at it. We talked with our competition committee, and they were in favor of taking a look at it."


                                It should be noted that some players can handle the current workload. Nobody's worried about them - they're worried about the guys who can't.

                                There's no easy solution aside from a coach managing his own roster. Shorter games, for example, may mean the starters still get the same mpg but the bench guys get less. Nothing the league can do would force a coach to play a certain player a certain amount of minutes within a game.
                                Yup. People always like to throw out Jordan or AI mpg as comparable, but the league is different and playing time is handled differently.
                                Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                                If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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