Kyle Lowry's Elbow Injury - to rest, or not to rest...

[DanH]

Wrong, most top stars do play around 40 minutes per game in the playoffs, just look at last year: Brow-43, LeBron-42, Butler-42, Beal-42, Aldridge-42, JJ-42, Blake-40, DeMar-40, Steph-39, Wall-39, it's not made up it's a fact. It's what happens when rotations shorten and you're trying to have your best players out there for a significant chunk of the game because of the high stakes.

You keep attesting he got hurt because of his high minutes. That is simple not true. He got a bump and got hurt from that, playing less minutes wouldn't have made a difference there.

The argument is 1) that bump is 10% less likely to happen in the first place if he plays 10% fewer minutes, just on time basis alone, let along when you consider the risks associated with playing fatigued, 2) playing more minutes after the bump means a higher risk of aggravating/worsening the injury, just on time basis alone, let along when you consider the risks associated with playing fatigued, and 3) playing fewer minutes is a half measure anyway and if an injury requires consistent rest to recover, he should have been sat down for however long it would take to fully heal.

Again, though, I was pretty clear that 40 minutes in the playoffs would be fine - there are lots of rest days and yeah, guys need to play more - and the problem was playing 40 minutes a game night in and night out for a grueling 82 game schedule with back to backs and travel and few true rest days. Not sure what the point was in bringing up the playoff minutes for other guys.

[JWash]

There was no rest! There was a period with 5 days off in between games of 40+ minutes, and a period of 4 days off in between games of 40+ minutes.

Neither of those counts as real rest.

To be frank I don't think you or I get to determine what "rest" is. He got 5 days off, we don't know what the proper treatment time is supposed to be.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Maybe? You don't know that, maybe it makes no difference AND we lose more resulting in a worse record and him being more out of rhythm?

What rhythm can a player reasonably be expected to get into when an injury breaks his shooting mechanics?

It's not inconceivable to say that playing through the injury actually cost the Raptors some games, when Lowry's shooting (from the field and the foul line) has been absolutely atrocious. It's not like he's been a trooper and played well, despite the injury.

Lowry has played terribly due to the injury, and playing has jeopardized future performance, starting with the upcoming playoffs.

Maybe if he had been given several weeks off (no playing or practicing), the issue would have cleared up, allowing Lowry to come back 100% healthy (and well rested) to get into rhythm heading into the playoffs. An odd day off here and there does not equal rest, especially when he's playing huge minutes in the games he plays in, when his injury has not healed!

[JWash]

The argument is 1) that bump is 10% less likely to happen in the first place if he plays 10% fewer minutes, just on time basis alone, let along when you consider the risks associated with playing fatigued, 2) playing more minutes after the bump means a higher risk of aggravating/worsening the injury, just on time basis alone, let along when you consider the risks associated with playing fatigued, and 3) playing fewer minutes is a half measure anyway and if an injury requires consistent rest to recover, he should have been sat down for however long it would take to fully heal.

Again, though, I was pretty clear that 40 minutes in the playoffs would be fine - there are lots of rest days and yeah, guys need to play more - and the problem was playing 40 minutes a game night in and night out for a grueling 82 game schedule with back to backs and travel and few true rest days. Not sure what the point was in bringing up the playoff minutes for other guys.

I'm just gonna stop you there. You've used this argument several times and it's been rubbished several times. There is absolutely not this direct correlation between playing time and injuries. It just simple does not exist. There have been multiple research studies done on it that you can look up if you like.

[slaw]

There was no rest! There was a period with 5 days off in between games of 40+ minutes, and a period of 4 days off in between games of 40+ minutes.

Neither of those counts as real rest.

Is that your medical opinion?

[JWash]

What rhythm can a player reasonably be expected to get into when an injury breaks his shooting mechanics?

It's not inconceivable to say that playing through the injury actually cost the Raptors some games, when Lowry's shooting (from the field and the foul line) has been absolutely atrocious. It's not like he's been a trooper and played well, despite the injury.

Lowry has played terribly due to the injury, and playing has jeopardized future performance, starting with the upcoming playoffs.

Maybe if he had been given several weeks off (no playing or practicing), the issue would have cleared up, allowing Lowry to come back 100% healthy (and well rested) to get into rhythm heading into the playoffs. An odd day off here and there does not equal rest, especially when he's playing huge minutes in the games he plays in.

Maybe it would, maybe it would've made things worse, with the injury not healing and him also getting out of game shape or not learning how to adjust slightly to the pain and play through it.

[GLF]

I agree that we should just shut him down for like a week to week and a half and maybe have him play the last 3 games of the season. He going to keep hitting that elbow and aggravating it more. We probably will lose every single game he sits but I rather him be healthy for the playoffs. Watching him defer to other players and miss free throw after free throw and 3 pointer after 3 pointer is just painful to watch. What shocks me is Kyle not asking to rest. You know you went into the playoffs last year looking like shit because of injury and that was a big reason why we got swept and you're willing to put yourself through that again? Like if Casey and the medical staff are going to be that dumb whatever but if I were Kyle I would speak up. I know players want to play but I never understood why they are so dumb about it. This whole organization is fucked man. Carroll acted the same way and look what happened. Now you're literally doing the same thing with Kyle. Until he really fucks it up and has to get surgery or something. I've never seen a team and organization filled with this many dummies in my life. It's crazy man.

[Barolt]

What's the downside of giving him a week off right now? Maybe we lose a few games, but the next 7 are against playoff teams which would be tough games anyways. We won't fall out of second place.

At worst, he doesn't get better and we lose a few games.

At best, his elbow improves for the playoffs.

I haven't heard one reasonable argument why this is a bad idea.

[DanH]

I'm just gonna stop you there. You've used this argument several times and it's been rubbished several times. There is absolutely not this direct correlation between playing time and injuries. It just simple does not exist. There have been multiple research studies done on it that you can look up if you like.

I'm not talking about correlation, I'm talking about logic. The variability in whether bumps cause injuries is completely unpredictable, of course. But the number of game play events where there is a risk of a bump, or landing on someone's foot, etc, is entirely linear (or close to it) with minutes played. If a player plays twice as many minutes, they are involved in roughly twice as many game events that have a possibility of causing an injury. Of course the actual injury is usually the result of a random event, but it's like saying someone who drives their car twice as often is twice as likely to get in an accident - it's not because they are more likely to get in an accident any particular point in time, they just have twice as many opportunities to get in that accident.

[JWash]

What's the downside of giving him a week off right now? Maybe we lose a few games, but the next 7 are against playoff teams which would be tough games anyways. We won't fall out of second place.

At worst, he doesn't get better and we lose a few games.

At best, his elbow improves for the playoffs.

I haven't heard one reasonable argument why this is a bad idea.

At worst, he doesn't get better, he doesn't get used to playing with the nick and then completely plays like crap in the playoffs as a result. At least if he's playing he can adjust to it and hopefully get to near his peak level for playoffs.

[DanH]

Maybe it would, maybe it would've made things worse, with the injury not healing and him also getting out of game shape or not learning how to adjust slightly to the pain and play through it.

But we know, for a fact, that playing through it has led to this, his current problematic injury and awful shooting over the past few games. We know it didn't work. We know that. Why is this presumed to be the best course of action when we know it didn't work?

[JWash]

I'm not talking about correlation, I'm talking about logic. The variability in whether bumps cause injuries is completely unpredictable, of course. But the number of game play events where there is a risk of a bump, or landing on someone's foot, etc, is entirely linear (or close to it) with minutes played. If a player plays twice as many minutes, they are involved in roughly twice as many game events that have a possibility of causing an injury. Of course the actual injury is usually the result of a random event, but it's like saying someone who drives their car twice as often is twice as likely to get in an accident - it's not because they are more likely to get in an accident any particular point in time, they just have twice as many opportunities to get in that accident.

The logic is completely flawed. There are so many other factors that affect injuries besides just playing time. Some guys who hardly play at all get injured all the time.

[JWash]

But we know, for a fact, that playing through it has led to this, his current problematic injury and awful shooting over the past few games. We know it didn't work. We know that. Why is this presumed to be the best course of action when we know it didn't work?

We don't know it didn't work, it isn't in the past... he's still working through it right now.

[DanH]

At worst, he doesn't get better, he doesn't get used to playing with the nick and then completely plays like crap in the playoffs as a result. At least if he's playing he can adjust to it and hopefully get to near his peak level for playoffs.

Seriously? We are considering this as a possibility? That he can play near his peak level in the playoffs while injured? And that it's a good plan A?

[GLF]

What's the downside of giving him a week off right now? Maybe we lose a few games, but the next 7 are against playoff teams which would be tough games anyways. We won't fall out of second place.

At worst, he doesn't get better and we lose a few games.

At best, his elbow improves for the playoffs.

I haven't heard one reasonable argument why this is a bad idea.

Because there is none. And the fact that the organization doesn't see that is beyond me. If he's still playing like shit against Atlanta after getting his elbow drained they better shut his ass down. I'm hoping another loss to a good team will be the final straw.