Kyle Lowry's Elbow Injury - to rest, or not to rest...

[JWash]

I feel like I'm going crazy here. It's really a straightforward principle, right?

It's not a straightforward principle. It's flawed logic.

[JWash]

He averaged 13 shots, and 3 ORBs against them last year. So 10 shots that he didn't create himself off misses.

You realize he gets offensive rebounds in other games as well right? That is so ridiculous.

EDIT: Not to mention that just because he got an offensive rebound doesn't mean he took a shot afterwards.

[Axel]

It reduces probability of injury based on one variable (playing time).

You're less likely to trip going down a flight of 3 stairs, than 35 stairs.

Except that you are more likely to take your time and be careful on 35 stairs than 3. Completely irrelevant to the real point, but I'd wager more people get hurt on 3 steps than 35.

[Barolt]

It's not a straightforward principle. It's flawed logic.

No, it's not.

http://www.footballdocs.com/running_back_carries.html

It's almost like being frequently involved in physical activities can be problematic over a long period.

[JWash]

The idea of blaming Lowry's injury that happened due to a random fall on his minutes is just insane to me.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

It's not a straightforward principle. It's flawed logic.

It's actually the basic, fundamental principle of probability, as Nilanka pointed out.

Assuming all live NBA basketball game time presents the same risk of potential injury, playing twice as many minutes means having twice the risk.

If you flip a dime 10 times and I flip a dime 100 times, probably says that I'm likely to flip more heads. I might go on a crazy tail streak, but that doesn't change the rules of probability, which you now seem to be arguing against.

[JWash]

It's actually the basic, fundamental principle of probability, as Nilanka pointed out.

Assuming all live NBA basketball game time presents the same risk of potential injury, playing twice as many minutes means having twice the risk.

If you flip a dime 10 times and I flip a dime 100 times, probably says that I'm likely to flip more heads. I might go on a crazy tail streak, but that doesn't change the rules of probability, which you now seem to be arguing against.

I know how probability works dude I just took an advanced course on it last semester.

[Nilanka]

It's not a straightforward principle. It's flawed logic.

Your probability of winning the lottery increases the more times you play. Makes sense?

[Barolt]

Your probability of winning the lottery increases the more times you play. Makes sense?

And if you don't play at all, you can't win.(Or in Lowry's case, re-injure a hurting elbow)

[KeonClark]

Except that you are more likely to take your time and be careful on 35 stairs than 3. Completely irrelevant to the real point, but I'd wager more people get hurt on 3 steps than 35.

Ok..youre more likely to get in a car accident if you drive all day everyday, then if you just run an errand or 2 every few days.

[JWash]

Your probability of winning the lottery increases the more times you play. Makes sense?

Not really. Each time you play you have the exact same chance of winning. Every time you play is an independent event.

[Barolt]

Not really. Each time you play you have the exact same chance of winning. Every time you play is an independent event.

More chances to win, even at the same individual probability, still raises your overall chances.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I know how probability works dude I just took an advanced course on it last semester.

Then how can you fail to understand or agree with the idea that more playing time = more risk? Nobody is saying that it's an absolute certainty, just that the odds (which we'd like to reduce for an injury-prone / injured player like Lowry) get worse as his minutes creep up (without even factoring in the in-game tired factor, which is when injuries are more likely to happen).

[DanH]

I literally JUST pointed out how I was talking about last year moreso than this year

Glad we are relying on a pattern over a year old. Good stuff. No reason to look at how JV has been used by THIS team against DET, that would be silly.

[JWash]

Then how can you fail to understand or agree with the idea that more playing time = more risk? Nobody is saying that it's an absolute certainty, just that the odds (which we'd like to reduce for an injury-prone / injured player like Lowry) get worse as his minutes creep up (without even factoring in the in-game tired factor, which is when injuries are more likely to happen).

What I don't get is this idea that his injury is because of his playing time lol. It's because he got fucking unlucky and got hurt. If he played less he could've easily just gotten hurt another way.