stat i heard during todays post game interviews

[Maury]

The privilege of having a clutch backcourt

As much as I love Kyle, he isn't very clutch. Demar is tho.

[Barolt]

As much as I love Kyle, he isn't very clutch. Demar is tho.

Wrong. Actually, it's the other guys.

Among guys who've played in more than 10 'clutch' games, DeMar and Kyle only rank above DeMarre in TS%.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#...t=TS_PCT&dir=1

JV: 86.5%
Ross: 74.6%
Patterson: 62.4%
Scola: 60.4%
Bismack: 60.2%
CoJo: 55.8%
DeMar: 51.8%
Lowry: 51.4%
Carroll: 46.1%

[Maury]

Wrong. Actually, it's the other guys.

Among guys who've played in more than 10 'clutch' games, DeMar and Kyle only rank above DeMarre in TS%.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#...t=TS_PCT&dir=1

JV: 86.5%
Ross: 74.6%
Patterson: 62.4%
Scola: 60.4%
Bismack: 60.2%
CoJo: 55.8%
DeMar: 51.8%
Lowry: 51.4%
Carroll: 46.1%

Kyle makes bad decisions in the clutch.

[Barolt]

Kyle makes bad decisions in the clutch.

His turnover rate is 6.3%, assist rate is 10.5%. DeMar is 7.6% turnover, 10.0% assist.

The assist rate is the one that really hurts. Overall, those guys are 30.1% for Kyle and 20.7% for DeMar.

In clutch situations, DeMar generates assists half as often and Kyle generates them 1/3 as often.

[ogi]

His turnover rate is 6.3%, assist rate is 10.5%. DeMar is 7.6% turnover, 10.0% assist.

The assist rate is the one that really hurts. Overall, those guys are 30.1% for Kyle and 20.7% for DeMar.

In clutch situations, DeMar generates assists half as often and Kyle generates them 1/3 as often.

I wouldn't be surprised to find that trend to be true for most guys that are considered the go to guys on their teams.

But where'd you get 30.1 for Lowry's assist ratio?

[Barolt]

I wouldn't be surprised to find that trend to be true for most guys that are considered the go to guys on their teams.

But where'd you get 30.1 for Lowry's assist ratio?

Had BBRef open in another window, grabbed it from there. nba.com has 29.5%, which is odd because DeMar's is the same...

[Barolt]

As far as 'other guys being similar', most of them don't fall nearly as far(or they shoot better).

Among guys with >30% usage and more than 20 clutch games, only Kemba, Durant, Kobe, Cousins, Wiggins, George and Lillard have lower assist rates than DeMar and Kyle.

Of those guys, only Kobe, Cousins, and Wiggins have worse true shooting percentages. Of the guys with better assist rates, only Melo, Middleton, Rose, Westbrook and Ish Smith shoot worse.

So, the only player on a playoff team with >30% usage and a worse true shooting than either of our guys is Westbrook.

[Scraptor]

Wrong. Actually, it's the other guys.

Among guys who've played in more than 10 'clutch' games, DeMar and Kyle only rank above DeMarre in TS%.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#...t=TS_PCT&dir=1

JV: 86.5%
Ross: 74.6%
Patterson: 62.4%
Scola: 60.4%
Bismack: 60.2%
CoJo: 55.8%
DeMar: 51.8%
Lowry: 51.4%
Carroll: 46.1%

There's a sample size problem here though. Here are the FGA numbers in the clutch for the Raps:
DD 105
Kyle 85
Cojo 22
Patman 18
Val 16
Ross 11

Efficiency decreases with increased usage and attention. The TS% alone really doesn't tell us much.

What this does tell us is that our clutch offense is really, really heavily weighted around two guys. There's better balance (obviously) on teams like the Hawks and Spurs, while the Pacers rely on George and Ellis like we do. Question is whether Kyle and Demar can be closers in the playoffs, because we haven't developed anyone else for these situations.

[Barolt]

There's a sample size problem here though. Here are the FGA numbers in the clutch for the Raps:
DD 105
Kyle 85
Cojo 22
Patman 18
Val 16
Ross 11

Efficiency decreases with increased usage and attention. The TS% alone really doesn't tell us much.

What this does tell us is that our clutch offense is really, really heavily weighted around two guys. There's better balance (obviously) on teams like the Hawks and Spurs, while the Pacers rely on George and Ellis like we do. Question is whether Kyle and Demar cam be closers in the playoffs, because we haven't developed anyone else for these situations.

Your data backs up mine though, the other guys are effective but rarely used while Lowry and DeMar aren't terribly effective, but used all the time.

This problem gets worse in the playoffs when teams have more time to gameplan for you. During the regular season, most coaching staffs have a day at most to prepare for an opponent. Now we're going into a series where the opponent has at least a week with nothing but how to stop our team to think about.

[ogi]

As far as 'other guys being similar', most of them don't fall nearly as far(or they shoot better).

Among guys with >30% usage and more than 20 clutch games, only Kemba, Durant, Kobe, Cousins, Wiggins, George and Lillard have lower assist rates than DeMar and Kyle.

Of those guys, only Kobe, Cousins, and Wiggins have worse true shooting percentages. Of the guys with better assist rates, only Melo, Middleton, Rose, Westbrook and Ish Smith shoot worse.

So, the only player on a playoff team with >30% usage and a worse true shooting than either of our guys is Westbrook.

That entire list though is literally a handful of guys. And yeah when you put it like that it sounds pretty bad but our two guys are right around the in the group of Paul george and LBJ in terms of TS% (0.5 TS% separates Lowry and LBJ as well as only 2.4 in assist rate).

Either way it's obvious that both demar and lowry should pass more in the clutch.

[S.R.]

Yeah those clutch numbers totally make sense. Role players on this team aren't getting the ball in the clutch unless they're in their spots and/or a play has been executed properly. High percentages, infrequently occurring. Much more often we have DeMar or Kyle trying to win the game themselves. Lower percentage play, frequently occuring.

Thing is, this isn't different from most teams. Most star players don't have great clutch numbers but have high clutch usage. The old addage is "he's the guy who got us here" or something. Hell, LeBron gets shat on for passing the ball in these situations if his teammate misses the shot.

Personally I think LeBron is right and the right basketball play should be made in the clutch. But then the fans and team have to come to terms with the fact that their entire season might come down to a role player making a shot. Everybody just feels better when the star has the ball.

[Barolt]

I hate the idea that you do anything just because 'that's how other teams do it', because we don't out-talent guys like George and LeBron.

So trying to out-talent them will cause us to lose, but we might be able to be the better team if we try to win as a team.

[Bendit]

Did anyone mention "defense" (eg. points allowed in the last 5 min.) as possibly being more of a factor than the offensive abilities? I think the team's D intensity notches up. If someone could statiscize this thesis...appreciate it.

[DanH]

Did anyone mention "defense" (eg. points allowed in the last 5 min.) as possibly being more of a factor than the offensive abilities? I think the team's D intensity notches up. If someone could statiscize this thesis...appreciate it.

Pretty close to average in terms of clutch DRTG.

[Maury]

If we are down one with 10 seconds left, I go with demar. Obviously you would rather have a solid play run, but you know the likelihood of that happening is very low.