Everything VanVleet

[Primer]

Uh, what? How many non-jump shots are you seeing guys take outside the paint? Jump shots is just easy short hand for "midrange and out." Man alive.

Actually, league wide the trend in jump shot success on open looks is that long midrange is not actually much easier to hit than threes, which is why we had the recent revolution to eliminate those shots and have them move a few steps back - you gain an extra point but lose almost nothing in accuracy. The big drop off in success rate is when you move from layup/floater range out to having to take a jumper. Even the short mid-range to long mid-range success rate is not a huge jump.

I am not arguing that a hand in the face does not affect a jump shot. I am arguing that a team or player's success rate defending jump shots will not show up in the stats over a sample as small as, say, an NBA regular season. There is too much noise from shooting luck, so a team with a low opponent 3PT% for example might be really good at getting a hand up - or they might be lucky. Statistical analysis of such scenarios suggests that it's far more likely the latter for any given team. This is compounded hugely for individual player defence stats, as the samples are that much smaller.

But even at the team level, you just don't see it show up in the numbers because the effect of a good defence on a jump shot is less significant than the random variance inherent in throwing a ball into a hoop from a significant distance. Absolutely playing good defence will give you the best chance to win. Because that is something you can control, and the variance is not. But by no means will it guarantee you see your opponent's success rate drop. Sometimes the tough shots just go in.

You're now saying that opposing defense has no effect on midrange and out shots.

[DanH]

You're now saying that opposing defense has no effect on midrange and out shots.

No, I'm saying any effect they have is lost in the noise of shot variance. Yes, for midrange and out shots.

[Primer]

No, I'm saying any effect they have is lost in the noise of shot variance. Yes, for midrange and out shots.

So the Raptors putrid 3pt defense is just noise and not a weakness in our defense?

That's good to know.

[DanH]

So the Raptors putrid 3pt defense is just noise and not a weakness in our defense?

That's good to know.

Well, how do you define "putrid 3 point defence"?

Yes, opposing teams hit 37.6% on threes against us. That's bad. 3rd worst. Boo.

But also, teams only take 32 threes against us per game. That's good! 6th best. Yay!

In general, giving up threes or rim attempts is bad. Giving up a lot of them is a better sign of a bad defence than having your opponent hit a lot of the ones they take (though rim protection is real, so DFG% near the rim at the team level can be a good sign too).

A demonstration! The "best" 3 point defence team in the league gives up only 33.9% on those shots. The "worst" gives up 39%. That's a 5.1 percentage point swing. The "best" free throw defence gives up a 76.5% FT%. The "worst" gives up 80.3%. That's a 3.8 percentage point swing. Why are we so confident the first example is demonstrating defensive talent, when we will probably not attribute any "hand in the face" effect to the latter. Right?

Another demonstration! Has the Raptors' defence varied dramatically this season? Here's a month to month breakdown in their rank in opponent 3PT%:
Nov: 10th
Dec: 28th
Jan: 28th
Feb: 20th
Mar: 20th

So, are we a top 10 3 point defence? Bottom of the league? Slightly below average? The argument comes down to: the single month samples must be too small to mean much. So why then are we confident that the sample is big enough to mean something over a full season? Based on what? It's easy to say that that's the biggest sample we'll get so therefore it MUST be big enough, but that's not how it works.

[The Claw Reborn]

Flawed, Fraud, Self absorbed chucker

JUST GO AWAY ALREADY !

[The Claw Reborn]

Yes in a way Nurse enabled him, Maybe the coach is at fault too for the not fully enforcing what role he really wanted VanVleet to play this season (NN was quoted saying it to start the season back in September 2022) …. playing off ball night in and night out.

But it is hard to enforce it when the player doubled down and bet on himself. Contract year. I personally wanted VanVleet to take whatever offer Masai placed on the table to get that contract situation off the table and just have a regular season play out itself. Unfortunately, The player have some selfish agenda. Things he said in the media corroborated what he has done on and off the court.

This is no narrative…these stuff happened.

Masai seat should be warmer now especially if he kicks the can farther down the road in the offseason.

not at the expense of Scottie’s development please.

[The Claw Reborn]

The trajectory of both their games of VanVleet and Derozan as Raptors players to me personally are similar.

And The collateral damage along the way

Casey as coach
Nurse as coach

JV/ Ross/ Norm in their formative years and their development in favor of Derozan

Scottie/ OG/ Trent/ Dowtin/ Banton/ Flynn in their formative years in favor of VanVleet

my two cents

Life in full circle

now both will be facing each other dogging it out to survive the play in.

what is next?

[The Claw Reborn]

Please leave this team

go somewhere else

[Kagemusha]

Please leave this team

go somewhere else

Taiwan League?

[Fuchan]

Taiwan League?

Rockets.

[The Claw Reborn]

                                                                              
               % of % of % of  % of  % of % of  FG%  FG%  FG%   FG%   FG%  FG%
Season     FG%   2P  0-3 3-10 10-16 16-3P   3P   2P  0-3 3-10 10-16 16-3P   3P
2022-23   .393 .455 .120 .144  .091  .101 .545 .455 .586 .375  .406  .455 .342

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/13/2023.


52% of his FGA from the 3 point shot and he hit clunkers after clunkers (34%)
NO in between game

54% TS terrible
Per 100 possessions: 39%FG and 34%3FG
+2.6 on court (per 100 possessions) - lowest in his career

34% FG compared to League Shoooting average of 48%

BPM/ VORP/DRTG dipped with same Usage of 23%/ no.2 in FGA/ MPG

29 years old on a significant decline

[Primer]

% of % of % of % of % of % of FG% FG% FG% FG% FG% FG%
Season FG% 2P 0-3 3-10 10-16 16-3P 3P 2P 0-3 3-10 10-16 16-3P 3P
2022-23 .393 .455 .120 .144 .091 .101 .545 .455 .586 .375 .406 .455 .342

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/13/2023.


52% of his FGA from the 3 point shot and he hit clunkers after clunkers (34%)
NO in between game

54% TS terrible
Per 100 possessions: 39%FG and 34%3FG
+2.6 on court (per 100 possessions) - lowest in his career

34% FG compared to League Shoooting average of 48%

BPM/ VORP/DRTG dipped with same Usage of 23%/ no.2 in FGA/ MPG

29 years old on a significant decline

Fred is quite possibly the worst interior scorer in the league.

Let him go.

[Dr Hannibal Lecter]

Raptors should definitely let him go, but will Masai let him go..I don't know.
Here's the thing, Trent could opt in, if they hire new coach, he can try it again next year 2 c if he can have better season and Poeltl is signing that's a guarantee, u can't give that kind of compensation 2 let him go..so if both Poeltl and Trent are back..how do bring Vanvleet back, u can't..your over the cap..unless u pay him the max...lol..
Yo..Masai really F^%% things up by not moving guys at deadline and bringing in Poeltl.
Also u got Siakim could get super max, his gonna b 30..and OG gonna paid substantially..
Also don't forget Barnes.. his getting Max.
So, yeah..bad times..honestly this can only work out if u get rid of Siakim and Fv.
You'll have new coach 2..new beginning..

[Primer]

Fred has the 5th worst 2P% in the entire league!

He's 45.5% from 2.

Only guys worse than him are Hayes, Hardaway Jr, Dort, and Brooks.

If Fred isn't nailing 3s at a very high level he is just a disaster.

[Kagemusha]

Raptors should definitely let him go, but will Masai let him go..I don't know.
Here's the thing, Trent could opt in, if they hire new coach, he can try it again next year 2 c if he can have better season and Poeltl is signing that's a guarantee, u can't give that kind of compensation 2 let him go..so if both Poeltl and Trent are back..how do bring Vanvleet back, u can't..your over the cap..unless u pay him the max...lol..
Yo..Masai really F^%% things up by not moving guys at deadline and bringing in Poeltl.
Also u got Siakim could get super max, his gonna b 30..and OG gonna paid substantially..
Also don't forget Barnes.. his getting Max.
So, yeah..bad times..honestly this can only work out if u get rid of Siakim and Fv.
You'll have new coach 2..new beginning..

Yeah, Masai fvcked up big time.
Proj 6'9" was his idea and most of his past moves were geared towards that project.
Was Nick fully on board?
Or was he just trying to please Masai?
When that 6'9" concept first came up, many of us were like, wait what about Fred? And you can bet Fred was asking the same too.
Did Nick play Fred to the max in secret protest?
The get paid factor was in play, sure. But he can only play Fred so much until his flaws get exposed too.

Masai probably had a change of heart when he brought in Jak. He realized his mistakes but then a rift may probably have developed already. 60% of the blame is probably on Masai, but we all know coaches get fired first in sports.