Everything VanVleet

[MixxAOR]

So if the Raps not going to overpay, do they trade him at the deadline?!

Masai is ok with letting guys go in free agency. But he could trade him too

[golden]

Masai is ok with letting guys go in free agency. But he could trade him too

Yeah, and let's not forget that the Raps were winning 50+ games and making the ECF with CoJo @ $7M/year as the backup PG, so it's hard to believe that FVV is a $15-19M/year difference maker. And even at only $7M/year, Masai had no qualms trading CoJo for Miles.

I do like Fred from a culture and work ethic standpoint, but there are limits on how much you should pay for that.

[S.R.]

Yeah, and let's not forget that the Raps were winning 50+ games and making the ECF with CoJo @ $7M/year as the backup PG, so it's hard to believe that FVV is a $15-19M/year difference maker. And even at only $7M/year, Masai had no qualms trading CoJo for Miles.

I do like Fred from a culture and work ethic standpoint, but there are limits on how much you should pay for that.

You're conflating two things here: whether or not FVV is "worth" a hypothetical $15m contract and whether or not the Raptors should sign him to that contract.

At this point I'd consider a $15m contract for Fred pretty fair market value. I'd consider something lower, all the way down to $10m in an optimistic scenario, to be team friendly.

As for whether or not Masai should make that offer - a lot depends on what other options there are and what else is in play. Fred is just one of the pieces.

Considering what Masai has done successfully re: team friendly contract lengths, I wouldn't be surprised if he manages to talk Fred into a moderate overpay, 1 year contract. Fred gets good money, the Raps maintain 2021 flexibility, and Fred is a FA for a 2021 summer that a bunch of teams are saving cap space for.
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[golden]

You're conflating two things here: whether or not FVV is "worth" a hypothetical $15m contract and whether or not the Raptors should sign him to that contract.

At this point I'd consider a $15m contract for Fred pretty fair market value. I'd consider something lower, all the way down to $10m in an optimistic scenario, to be team friendly.

As for whether or not Masai should make that offer - a lot depends on what other options there are and what else is in play. Fred is just one of the pieces.

Considering what Masai has done successfully re: team friendly contract lengths, I wouldn't be surprised if he manages to talk Fred into a moderate overpay, 1 year contract. Fred gets good money, the Raps maintain 2021 flexibility, and Fred is a FA for a 2021 summer that a bunch of teams are saving cap space for.
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The problem is that you've been using the highest end comparables for "fair" market value, and mostly starters. Fred's comparables should be backup PGs, even though he struggled mightily in that role. Backup PGs are making roughly $4-12M/yr, so ~ $8M/year on average. It's a high supply position.

Here's a list of PGs & current salaries.
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/contracts/point-guard/

At 15M/yr, Fred would be the 2nd highest paid backup PG in the league behind Schroeder. That's bad GM'ing. The goal is to be smart with your salary cap, like the Clippers signing Lou Williams at $7M/yr and getting tremendous value out of that. If Fred can get somebody to pay him $15M/year, Masai should say "thanks, and good luck."

That said, if Lowry has to miss significant time and Fred proves that he can productive as a true starting PG this year (i.e. no Kawhi) with no secondary PG safety blanket (i.e. Lowry or Delon), then he would be worth the $15M/yr. He has to prove it, but at this point .... no.

[S.R.]

If Masai can sign Fred for $7m/yr I'll be extremely happy. He should lock him up for max term in that case and make sure the 2021 cap space comes from elsewhere.

[KeonClark]

Lol 7 million. He makes 9 right now. I'm sure dude is gonna take a pay cut after earning starters minutes and an NBA championship since the last deal.

[golden]

Lol 7 million. He makes 9 right now. I'm sure dude is gonna take a pay cut after earning starters minutes and an NBA championship since the last deal.

Of course he isn't. That's why we have to trade him. Let the Suns or Knicks bet $15-19M/year of cap-space on Freddy.

[Rudy Bargnani]

Yea, no chance he takes a pay cut.
Corey Jo just signed for 3 years $37 mill. So about 12 per. That would be the absolute lowest he'll sign for in my view but I agree with other posts above someone will overpay him, maybe the bulls, and view him as a starter. Brogdon and Rozier both came off the bench lots last year and signed significantly higher contracts, granted to become a starter. In my view the only way he signs for 12-13 per year is if you give him lots of term, IE a 4 year $50 million contract. Lou's contract is the other end of the spectrum and is not a comparable in my view. He signed at a massive discount to stay in LA and have stability.
We get to see how FVV performs this year before deciding if the investment is worthwhile or not. Hopefully he performs well and is a great trade chip or a great long term contributor to the team.

[S.R.]

Of course he isn't. That's why we have to trade him. Let the Suns or Knicks bet $15-19M/year of cap-space on Freddy.

Now I'm lost.

A minute ago that number was ridiculous for Fred. Now some teams are going to give it to him. Somewhere between "Lou Williams makes $7m" and "lol overpay" is a reasonable number that presumably would be appealing for both a well run franchise and Fred Van Vleet. What do you think that number is and do you think Masai would pay it if Fred agreed to it?

[golden]

Now I'm lost.

A minute ago that number was ridiculous for Fred. Now some teams are going to give it to him. Somewhere between "Lou Williams makes $7m" and "lol overpay" is a reasonable number that presumably would be appealing for both a well run franchise and Fred Van Vleet. What do you think that number is and do you think Masai would pay it if Fred agreed to it?

Suns and Knicks making ridiculous decisions on cap-space is confusing to you? Now, I'm lost.

What I would pay FVV would greatly depend on how he performs this year in situations where he is handling true PG duties and creating easier offense for others. Fred says he wants to be starting PG in the league, but I need more sample size on his ability to do that on his own, and without a safety blanket like Kawhi on the roster. Would love to see him step up and truly be the heir to Lowry, but I don't see it yet.

[DanH]

Now I'm lost.

A minute ago that number was ridiculous for Fred. Now some teams are going to give it to him. Somewhere between "Lou Williams makes $7m" and "lol overpay" is a reasonable number that presumably would be appealing for both a well run franchise and Fred Van Vleet. What do you think that number is and do you think Masai would pay it if Fred agreed to it?

Bismack Biyombo entered summer 2016 as a free agent. He was going to get paiiiid. There was an argument to be made that he would be worth bringing back at the MLE. That argument, however, was not worth having, because he was inevitably going to get paid more than what it would be worthwhile to bring him back at. He got 18M per year. Truly a ridiculous number for him. And yet, completely realistic. Projected salaries can be both ridiculous and realistic all at once.

Similarly for Fred. We can bicker about whether he's worth 10M or 12M or 15M. But he's a real risk to get a 20M+ offer that summer (another summer with significant, if not so significant as 2016 obviously, cap space and few stars), and he'll only get significantly lower offers if he plays quite badly this year, in which case the number we agree on for him now will drop as his offers do.

So the question at the end of your comment is a conversation starter, but no more than that. The answer is, anything Masai would agree to Fred will not sign, unless the market is completely dead (like it was last summer), and vice versa, unless Masai is willing to punt on future flexibility and is willing to pay Fred like a starter.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

^ Especially considering how weak this FA class is. You know some dumb teams are gonna blow their loads on middling players.

[S.R.]

What I would pay FVV would greatly depend on how he performs this year in situations where he is handling true PG duties and creating easier offense for others. Fred says he wants to be starting PG in the league, but I need more sample size on his ability to do that on his own, and without a safety blanket like Kawhi on the roster. Would love to see him step up and truly be the heir to Lowry, but I don't see it yet.

If Fred is the same guy as last year, 28 mpg, 11&5, starts some games, closes a lot of games, plays defence, is a bench 1 and lots of 2 guard with the starters, shoots a good % from deep - all the same as usual - do you offer him anything for the next contract, try to trade him, or let him walk? And if you offer him something in that scenario, how much and for how long?

Edit: I ask this because I don't think he'll ever be what you're hoping he'll be, he's a very different player than that. He's more of a Pat Beverly/Eric Bledose (though obviously different than both). He'll get paid for what he is.

[S.R.]

Bismack Biyombo entered summer 2016 as a free agent. He was going to get paiiiid. There was an argument to be made that he would be worth bringing back at the MLE. That argument, however, was not worth having, because he was inevitably going to get paid more than what it would be worthwhile to bring him back at. He got 18M per year. Truly a ridiculous number for him. And yet, completely realistic. Projected salaries can be both ridiculous and realistic all at once.

Similarly for Fred. We can bicker about whether he's worth 10M or 12M or 15M. But he's a real risk to get a 20M+ offer that summer (another summer with significant, if not so significant as 2016 obviously, cap space and few stars), and he'll only get significantly lower offers if he plays quite badly this year, in which case the number we agree on for him now will drop as his offers do.

So the question at the end of your comment is a conversation starter, but no more than that. The answer is, anything Masai would agree to Fred will not sign, unless the market is completely dead (like it was last summer), and vice versa, unless Masai is willing to punt on future flexibility and is willing to pay Fred like a starter.

Sure, it's August. In the bigger picture discussion, whether Masai punts everything for 2021 cap space or holds onto some of the current assets is going to depend very much on the cost of retaining those assets. And yes, all of it is conjecture until contracts are actually signed, trades are actually made, etc., sure.

Personally I don't see MU shipping out all the talent and crossing his fingers for FA. He's more of an opportunist than that, he takes advantage of what comes his way. Having talent on reasonable contracts helps with that. The Raptors depth allowed them to trade for Kawhi Leonard and Marc Gasol and still have one of the deepest teams in the playoffs. I'm just having a hard time seeing Masai taking a clearing the deck approach. I would bet on 1 max FA space for 2021. I think if FVV will stay for a reasonable amount, he'll be here. If he wants $20m he won't be.

[DanH]

I think if FVV will stay for a reasonable amount, he'll be here. If he wants $20m he won't be.

So, yeah, we agree. I'm just saying it's exceedingly unlikely the former is what happens.