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  • I like the idea of trying to structure it so that we're able to offer the multi-year deal Fred will probably look for, but with a dip on the 2021-2022 season to help preserve our cap space for that year (while maintaining his overall average over the life of the contract).

    His value can fluctuate a lot between now and the signing time though. A lot of it will be driven by how he does in the 2020 playoffs. Does he look like the Magic/Philly series Fred, or does he look like the Bucks/GSW series Fred? Or something in between? We'll have a much better idea about everything next summer. Right now, what I'm wondering is:

    --what are the realistic targets in 2021? I know Giannis is the primary one, but that still feels a like a bit of a pipe dream. Other then him who else is out there they may be realistically looking into leaving their current team in free agency, and how are they compared to Fred as a player?
    --What are the other ways to shed salary for 2021 (not involving Siakam, OG & Fred)? Perhaps Norm?

    Fred has great chemistry with Siakam. They basically grew up together as players. If we're gonna let him walk in 2020 for nothing but cap space in 2021, I'd prefer if we had a realistic target with a strong possibility of getting it in 2021.

    2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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    • inthepaint wrote: View Post
      I like the idea of trying to structure it so that we're able to offer the multi-year deal Fred will probably look for, but with a dip on the 2021-2022 season to help preserve our cap space for that year (while maintaining his overall average over the life of the contract).

      His value can fluctuate a lot between now and the signing time though. A lot of it will be driven by how he does in the 2020 playoffs. Does he look like the Magic/Philly series Fred, or does he look like the Bucks/GSW series Fred? Or something in between? We'll have a much better idea about everything next summer. Right now, what I'm wondering is:

      --what are the realistic targets in 2021? I know Giannis is the primary one, but that still feels a like a bit of a pipe dream. Other then him who else is out there they may be realistically looking into leaving their current team in free agency, and how are they compared to Fred as a player?
      --What are the other ways to shed salary for 2021 (not involving Siakam, OG & Fred)? Perhaps Norm?

      Fred has great chemistry with Siakam. They basically grew up together as players. If we're gonna let him walk in 2020 for nothing but cap space in 2021, I'd prefer if we had a realistic target with a strong possibility of getting it in 2021.
      To be fair, everyone minus Kawhi looked like crap in the Philly series. Our guards especially had issues with the size Philly had on the court.

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      • DanH wrote: View Post

        Well, would you give Fred the max? If not, there is a line somewhere where you wouldn't sign him.

        The upside is we have his Bird Rights. I suspect Masai will try to offer something where the AAV might be a little lower than the market (which is hopefully in the low 20's), say 20M average, but with a dip in year two to maximize 2021 cap room, and with a player option year 5 guarantees him 100M. That's assuming he keeps up those averages for the year.
        Yeah Id think pretty hard about Fred before shelling out 20+ aav. I like his game, but he still cant consistently create good looks - needs another ballhandler on the court. Brogdon isnt a great comp to me cause he gets to the rim with ease, comands a good offense and has the size to defend many positions. No he didn’t prove all that for the Bucks, but he was their second best player in the playoffs.

        Ultimately I would keep him at Brogdon money, but at some point you need to get another good shot creator. Doesn’t have to be a star, but we’ve seen the offense stagnate and turn ugly withough Pascal. Could just be that Lowry’s that guy short term till Davis or OG can step up a role.

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        • DanH wrote: View Post

          If the deal is on the order of 20M, sure. I don't know that we can be confident in that. Free agent markets can be hard to predict at the best of times.
          There are a lot of assumptions about what will happen. There will be lots of teams that thought they were contenders (maybe the Blazers, for example) that may change course entirely if they flame out and other teams that will believe they are close (Dallas?) who might try to be bold. Could be a lot of things that shake loose. And we've seen the Raps roster change time and again through the years, so who even knows what this roster will look like next year, let alone every other team.

          My general point is simply that I don't see them letting Fred leave unless something really, really material happens/changes between now and free agency cause it doesn't really make sense to lose him for nothing.

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          • slaw wrote: View Post

            There are a lot of assumptions about what will happen. There will be lots of teams that thought they were contenders (maybe the Blazers, for example) that may change course entirely if they flame out and other teams that will believe they are close (Dallas?) who might try to be bold. Could be a lot of things that shake loose. And we've seen the Raps roster change time and again through the years, so who even knows what this roster will look like next year, let alone every other team.

            My general point is simply that I don't see them letting Fred leave unless something really, really material happens/changes between now and free agency cause it doesn't really make sense to lose him for nothing.
            Yeah it's tough to let players just leave for nothing, especially good players the team developed from the ground up like Fred. The only player in recent memory I felt somewhat ok just expiring and letting go was 2pat.

            I wonder if anyone here (or in OKC) would do a Powell-Roberson swap straight up (with a pick going in either direction to even things out, if needed). I think Norm would be a good fit in OKC with Shai-Alexander, he's younger then Roberson, could be someone they could groom. Roberson contract expires in 2020. We'd let him walk then and now things are looking easier for 2021, in terms of retaining Siakam, OG, Fred and adding a max player.
            2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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            • These next few weeks are an audition for if FVV can be the next lowry. So far he is passing with flying colors. I would give him a long term deal if he keeps this up. We have also earned some goodwill with fred giving him his opportunity giving him a nice 2 year deal let allowed him to maximize his earning potential by reentering FA again in 2 seasons. He also has had 2 children here and i think him and his family like toronto. I think for those reasons he will give us a bit of a hometown discount. Just imagine thought if masai got fred to sign a 4 year 40mil back in 2017.
              To be the champs you got to beat the champs

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              • slaw wrote: View Post

                Based on the Rozier and Brogdon deals we have a rough (or very rough) idea of what he is going to get broadly-speaking. From an asset management perspective, you can't really afford to lose him for nothing and Ujiri has done deals in the past to hang on to guys for value as much as anything. If both of the above presumptions are correct then the most likely outcome is a Rozier or Brogdon type deal and I'm fine with that - I don't really care about the particulars or the salary cap impact in 2021.

                Fred is inconsistent. Why does everybody immediately jump to the Brogdon comp ($23M) when he has a great game, but not use the Patty Mills comp ($10M) when he plays his normal game.

                TBH, Patty Mills is the PERFECT comparison for Fred: smallish championship winning backup PG, who plays scrappy defense and hits some big shots in the playoffs once in a while. Nobody would think of paying Patty Mills $20M/year and he was a key contributor to a ring.... just like Fred.

                I mean the numbers clearly indicate that Fred isn't in the same tier as Brogdon and is a lot closer to Patty Mills. So we're basically talking about a guaranteed overpay because some other GM will be foolish with their salary cap. I could see the T-Wolves making a bid.




                https://www.basketball-reference.com....fcgi?id=UshdK



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                • golden wrote: View Post


                  Fred is inconsistent. Why does everybody immediately jump to the Brogdon comp ($23M) when he has a great game, but not use the Patty Mills comp ($10M) when he plays his normal game.

                  TBH, Patty Mills is the PERFECT comparison for Fred: smallish championship winning backup PG, who plays scrappy defense and hits some big shots in the playoffs once in a while. Nobody would think of paying Patty Mills $20M/year and he was a key contributor to a ring.... just like Fred.

                  I mean the numbers clearly indicate that Fred isn't in the same tier as Brogdon and is a lot closer to Patty Mills. So we're basically talking about a guaranteed overpay because some other GM will be foolish with their salary cap. I could see the T-Wolves making a bid.




                  https://www.basketball-reference.com....fcgi?id=UshdK


                  Ugh, Fred's 2P% is painful. Some games when he's fully healthy and got that hop in his step (like vs Portland - also Dame is not a great defender) he's good getting to the rim. But a lot of games, Fred driving to the rim for a FGA is almost a waste of a possession. Just give the other team the ball. Or put RHJ on the floor to recover the ball after the inevitable block.

                  That said, I think Fred is showing he still has upside. He's still getting better. So maybe a longer leash and giving him attempts in areas that aren't his strength yet will pay off down the road a bit. We'll see, he'll be getting a ton of minutes this season.
                  "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                  • S.R. wrote: View Post

                    Ugh, Fred's 2P% is painful. Some games when he's fully healthy and got that hop in his step (like vs Portland - also Dame is not a great defender) he's good getting to the rim. But a lot of games, Fred driving to the rim for a FGA is almost a waste of a possession. Just give the other team the ball. Or put RHJ on the floor to recover the ball after the inevitable block.

                    That said, I think Fred is showing he still has upside. He's still getting better. So maybe a longer leash and giving him attempts in areas that aren't his strength yet will pay off down the road a bit. We'll see, he'll be getting a ton of minutes this season.
                    Fred is basically Patty Mills with a green light. Most players don't get the kind of unconditional opportunities that Fred has gotten with the Raptors.

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                    • golden wrote: View Post

                      Fred is basically Patty Mills with a green light. Most players don't get the kind of unconditional opportunities that Fred has gotten with the Raptors.
                      And if it was the 2017 offseason and FVV was a 29 year old back-up PG playing 20 minutes a game then a 4yr/$50 million Patty Mills deal would be a great comp.

                      Unfortunately, it is going to be the 2020 offseason and FVV will be a 26-year old starting SG playing 35+ MPG who will likely have numbers pretty close to Terry Rozier's this year in Charlotte who just happened to get a 3yr/$57 million deal coming off a season where he was mediocre to terrible. So, unless something changes significantly, he won't be signing the same deal an older player coming off a statistically inferior season signed three years earlier.

                      EDIT: And, to be clear, I don't care what he signs for and if they let him walk then I trust their judgement but, first, I just don't see them losing him for nothing and, second, despite the constant denigration of his game in some quarters, he's proven to be an extremely valuable player, and third, this is only his third full season and he's logging huge minutes effectively.
                      Last edited by slaw; Thu Nov 14th, 2019, 05:36 PM.

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                      • slaw wrote: View Post

                        And if it was the 2017 offseason and FVV was a 29 year old back-up PG playing 20 minutes a game then a 4yr/$50 million Patty Mills deal would be a great comp.

                        Unfortunately, it is going to be the 2020 offseason and FVV will be a 26-year old starting SG playing 35+ MPG who will likely have numbers pretty close to Terry Rozier's this year in Charlotte who just happened to get a 3yr/$57 million deal coming off a season where he was mediocre to terrible. So, unless something changes significantly, he won't be signing the same deal an older player coming off a statistically inferior season signed three years earlier.
                        Yep, I understand the "greater fool theory" of free markets. The Charlotte Hornets are the Charlotte Hornets because they overpay guys like Rozier. The goal is not to be like the Charlotte Hornets. That's going backwards to the Bryan Colangelo era.

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                        • This guy was a huge reason we won us an NBA championship, he plays very similar to our all time great P.G and has learned from him 1st hand. To me its a no brainier that we hold onto Fred. Just work it out so we still have max space for 2021 and im happy
                          To be the champs you got to beat the champs

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                          • Trade Norm for OKC's Andre Roberson, let Roberson walk in 2020 (clearing 10M off the books for 2021), then sign Fred for his fair market value at the end of the 2020 season . (within reason and based on his 2020 playoff performance).

                            Then in 2021 start Fred + Davis + OG + Siakam + Giannis and win another championship. Problem solved
                            2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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                            • golden wrote: View Post

                              Yep, I understand the "greater fool theory" of free markets. The Charlotte Hornets are the Charlotte Hornets because they overpay guys like Rozier. The goal is not to be like the Charlotte Hornets. That's going backwards to the Bryan Colangelo era.
                              Hey, if they can sign a 26 year old starting SG who can also play the point for 35 MPG and give them 17 PPG and 7 AST while shooting 40% from three for $10 million they should do that. I don’t disagree. I think it’s highly unlikely a player like that exists with an agent dumb enough to sign that contract but that would be fantastic.

                              Comment


                              • golden wrote: View Post

                                Yep, I understand the "greater fool theory" of free markets. The Charlotte Hornets are the Charlotte Hornets because they overpay guys like Rozier. The goal is not to be like the Charlotte Hornets. That's going backwards to the Bryan Colangelo era.
                                Right but make no mistake about it...FVV is a better player than Rozier

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