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  • Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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    • DanH wrote: View Post

      The small lineup with all 5 non-C starters has played nearly 100 minutes this season and is still a not quite break-even lineup (-0.6 net rating).

      The looks with Birch in Trent's place (+7 net rating, 22 minutes) or Barnes' place (+13.7 net rating, 39 minutes) are both smaller samples but at least they are winning their minutes (Precious' results are even smaller samples and are all over the place in terms of success or lack thereof, as you'd expect from smaller samples).

      There's not much evidence that the starters are better going small than going with Birch. Trent and Barnes both have games that can shine with the bench and are very valuable with the bench. They've been making the small starting group work by changing to the big one as quickly as they can in the 1st and 3rd Qs with an early sub for Birch, but I'm sure that is just locker room politics, easing into the obvious decision they want to make (starting Birch, Trent or Barnes to the bench), though it is also obvious how they would have a hard time removing either player from the starting group considering both have played great, but the lineup just doesn't work very well. It's not a disaster but I don't think "non-disaster" is their goal here.
      From Gasol winning his minutes to Birch winning his …. Amazing how you evolved DanH lol.

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      • The Claw Reborn wrote: View Post

        From Gasol winning his minutes to Birch winning his …. Amazing how you evolved DanH lol.
        Yeah, who cares if the team wins, right...
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • DanH wrote: View Post

          Yeah, who cares if the team wins, right...
          i mean who cares that you once consider a small sample size as noise (Raptors sucking defending the three and they still are) but now you value it with weight just to prove Birch earning his minutes….that’s you dude LOL

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          • The Claw Reborn wrote: View Post

            i mean who cares that you once consider a small sample size as noise (Raptors sucking defending the three and they still are) but now you value it with weight just to prove Birch earning his minutes….that’s you dude LOL
            So is your point that birch is or isn't winning his minutes?

            I really don't mean to come across as an asshole but is this specific point you just being petty or is there a further point?

            Like I don't always agree with DanH either. I do more often than not but not always. (especially on the JV being a good defender). But I feel like this doesn't really add to the conversation.

            Again not trying to be a dick just trying to understand what the point was.

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            • TrueTorontoFan wrote: View Post
              So is your point that birch is or isn't winning his minutes?

              I really don't mean to come across as an asshole but is this specific point you just being petty or is there a further point?

              Like I don't always agree with DanH either. I do more often than not but not always. (especially on the JV being a good defender). But I feel like this doesn't really add to the conversation.

              Again not trying to be a dick just trying to understand what the point was.
              Refer to post #1365 and you will get it lol

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                • The Claw Reborn wrote: View Post

                  Refer to post #1365 and you will get it lol
                  ah he was responding to your initial response to me stating that going big isn't a bad idea with GTJ off the bench.

                  I don't think he is saying birch is winning his minutes though.


                  DanH wrote: View Post

                  There's not much evidence that the starters are better going small than going with Birch. Trent and Barnes both have games that can shine with the bench and are very valuable with the bench.
                  I basically said that Trent and Barnes off the bench is more about bringing value to the bench. I didn't necessarily assert that Birch was amazing in the starting line up. I don't think he is either though. It appears as though he is just saying that staying small doesn't seem to have the some great benefit in those early moments.



                  DanH wrote: View Post

                  They've been making the small starting group work by changing to the big one as quickly as they can in the 1st and 3rd Qs with an early sub for Birch, but I'm sure that is just locker room politics, easing into the obvious decision they want to make (starting Birch, Trent or Barnes to the bench), though it is also obvious how they would have a hard time removing either player from the starting group considering both have played great, but the lineup just doesn't work very well. It's not a disaster but I don't think "non-disaster" is their goal here.



                  Where does he say Birch is earning his minutes?



                  Unless Dan wants to correct me here.



                  Now where I disagree with Dan is this.

                  From my point of view the line up of small ball works but it is better in closing line ups. Usually it ends up getting staggered because of Barnes or someone else getting into foul trouble and that requiring us staggering them into the closing minutes. Where I would argue is that the benefit of GTJ off the bench outweighs the drop off in production of Birch in the starting line up. Also it provides a player who can screen beyond Barnes. Siakam screens as well but Birch is really one of the better screeners on the team.




                  I don't know am I some how missing something?

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                  • TrueTorontoFan wrote: View Post

                    ah he was responding to your initial response to me stating that going big isn't a bad idea with GTJ off the bench.

                    I don't think he is saying birch is winning his minutes though.




                    I basically said that Trent and Barnes off the bench is more about bringing value to the bench. I didn't necessarily assert that Birch was amazing in the starting line up. I don't think he is either though. It appears as though he is just saying that staying small doesn't seem to have the some great benefit in those early moments.








                    Where does he say Birch is earning his minutes?



                    Unless Dan wants to correct me here.



                    Now where I disagree with Dan is this.

                    From my point of view the line up of small ball works but it is better in closing line ups. Usually it ends up getting staggered because of Barnes or someone else getting into foul trouble and that requiring us staggering them into the closing minutes. Where I would argue is that the benefit of GTJ off the bench outweighs the drop off in production of Birch in the starting line up. Also it provides a player who can screen beyond Barnes. Siakam screens as well but Birch is really one of the better screeners on the team.




                    I don't know am I some how missing something?

                    Here's the best way to settle this: start Birch. Have him start over a large, broad sample, matching up more often against opposing starters (meaning the best opposing centres in the league, the best defenders, and the quickest, most dangerous perimeter players) and see how he does. If he continues to 'win his minutes' by a wider margin than Trent and Scottie did under the same circumstances, with the team doing better, then he should continue to start.

                    The 'winning/losing his minutes',when comparing players A and B has been used on this forum for ages. It's used in different ways with different interpretations depending on who you ask. To me personally, it's valid if ticks these 3 boxes:

                    --Players A and B share the court with the same teammates (same help or lack thereof)
                    --Players A and B face similar quality opposition
                    --The samples for both A and B are large.

                    I like the starting lineup of Fred, Trent, Scottie, OG and Siakam (as does Nurse), they're our 5 best players. That said, I'm also intrigued by the big lineup with birch, so I'd like to see that tried and see how they do. If Trent is out for a while maybe we'll get a larger sample of birch with the starters.

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                    • inthepaint wrote: View Post


                      Here's the best way to settle this: start Birch. Have him start over a large, broad sample, matching up more often against opposing starters (meaning the best opposing centres in the league, the best defenders, and the quickest, most dangerous perimeter players) and see how he does. If he continues to 'win his minutes' by a wider margin than Trent and Scottie did under the same circumstances, with the team doing better, then he should continue to start.

                      The 'winning/losing his minutes',when comparing players A and B has been used on this forum for ages. It's used in different ways with different interpretations depending on who you ask. To me personally, it's valid if ticks these 3 boxes:

                      --Players A and B share the court with the same teammates (same help or lack thereof)
                      --Players A and B face similar quality opposition
                      --The samples for both A and B are large.

                      I like the starting lineup of Fred, Trent, Scottie, OG and Siakam (as does Nurse), they're our 5 best players. That said, I'm also intrigued by the big lineup with birch, so I'd like to see that tried and see how they do. If Trent is out for a while maybe we'll get a larger sample of birch with the starters.
                      Settle what though. We can be better with birch starting and it could be the result of having a more balanced bench.

                      These things don't have to be mutually exclusive. Correlation doesn't equate to causation. For example if you went big and swapped out birch for Turner this wouldn't even be a debate. I do agree though we need to see more from those line ups. I do want the line up that you like as our closing. Closing is what matters the most. The issue is in the playoffs we will need to extend our rotations beyond 5/6 guys into the 7th man because if one or two of the starting 5 get into foul trouble you need SOMEONE.

                      I am more into giving GTJ bench time because the bench has zero scoring ability outside of the hustle points that boucher puts up... and the occasional offensive production from Yuta. Yuta is good but he isn't good enough or consistent enough to be relied upon. Boucher is... boucher so I don't think I need to say more.

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                      • TrueTorontoFan wrote: View Post

                        Settle what though. We can be better with birch starting and it could be the result of having a more balanced bench.

                        These things don't have to be mutually exclusive. Correlation doesn't equate to causation. For example if you went big and swapped out birch for Turner this wouldn't even be a debate. I do agree though we need to see more from those line ups. I do want the line up that you like as our closing. Closing is what matters the most. The issue is in the playoffs we will need to extend our rotations beyond 5/6 guys into the 7th man because if one or two of the starting 5 get into foul trouble you need SOMEONE.

                        I am more into giving GTJ bench time because the bench has zero scoring ability outside of the hustle points that boucher puts up... and the occasional offensive production from Yuta. Yuta is good but he isn't good enough or consistent enough to be relied upon. Boucher is... boucher so I don't think I need to say more.
                        Settle who should start. The coach and some fans like the starting lineup as it is, others would like to see birch start. Valid argument as both have its pros and cons but right now it's not confirmed one way or the other, as the latter hasn't been tried over a large sample of games. Let's try and see, until then it's just promising/theoretical based on flashes we've seen midgame vs opposition with varying degrees of quality and player availibility due to covid protocols.

                        The starting lineup matters (as does the closing). Starting on the right note sets the tone for the rest of the game. Having your best starting lineup (whatever that is) is your best shot at controlling the game early and not dig yourself a hole.

                        Just one last point about Trent: his production and ability to create his own shot from the bench won't be the same as when he's starting. If he's the main scorer off the bench, the opponent focus would be mostly on him and he won't have escape valves like OG/fred/Siakam. Of course that's again, theoretical; maybe he'll put up numbers from the bench too, so again, would only be known for sure if it's tried, and it's certainly not a given one way or the other.

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                        • inthepaint wrote: View Post

                          Settle who should start. The coach and some fans like the starting lineup as it is, others would like to see birch start. Valid argument as both have its pros and cons but right now it's not confirmed one way or the other, as the latter hasn't been tried over a large sample of games. Let's try and see, until then it's just promising/theoretical based on flashes we've seen midgame vs opposition with varying degrees of quality and player availibility due to covid protocols.

                          The starting lineup matters (as does the closing). Starting on the right note sets the tone for the rest of the game. Having your best starting lineup (whatever that is) is your best shot at controlling the game early and not dig yourself a hole.

                          Just one last point about Trent: his production and ability to create his own shot from the bench won't be the same as when he's starting. If he's the main scorer off the bench, the opponent focus would be mostly on him and he won't have escape valves like OG/fred/Siakam. Of course that's again, theoretical; maybe he'll put up numbers from the bench too, so again, would only be known for sure if it's tried, and it's certainly not a given one way or the other.
                          ah gotcha.


                          I mean we could have a debate on the merits of starting vs closing. I would say in basketball specifically the closing line up matters the most. The bench matters a lot too because it buys you time. This is why if you look at the way we started the year we were struggling a lot with our second half execution. I have some theories about why that is (I think there was some early chemistry issues with guys in and out of the line up).

                          I am not saying to throw away the starting line up but it is possible that the net benefit that trent is able to bring is better left saved and conserved for a closing situation. You say he won't have escape valves but if we are staggering the other 4 anyways and Barnes is usually the first man out to help run the bench he will always have Barnes. At the end of the day we need to find ways to buy time and lower the minutes of guys like Fred. We can't go whole segments of the game where we are just praying to get by.


                          Part of the reason why I have been advocating for a marginal upgrade. I saw one suggested here and ill bring it up again. Bledsoe would be great off the bench as a combo guard playmaker who can defend. I would prefer a big but that may not happen.


                          Notice I am, not advocating in favor of Birch but in favor of balance. If Banton and Flynn could give us more it would be a different discussion.

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                          • The Claw Reborn wrote: View Post

                            i mean who cares that you once consider a small sample size as noise (Raptors sucking defending the three and they still are) but now you value it with weight just to prove Birch earning his minutes….that’s you dude LOL
                            The sample sizes required to stabilize for different things are... different. Three point shooting is one of the slowest developing stabilizations. Raw points scored over a variety of possession types normalizes far more quickly - more variance in play type and opponent brings down the impact of high variation in any single play type and the impact of quality of opposition. You can still get outlier data but it's far less prominent and you can far more quickly have some confidence in projecting results. Obviously not 100% confidence, but still, you can feel good about using those sorts of trends as evidence. This isn't me saying this, this is understood about these measures and which ones normalize fastest. 3 point percentage is about the slowest stabilizing data point in the sport (outside of those where there is literally no correlation/prediction possible, like most defensive FG% stats - making defensive 3 point % especially useless).

                            The Birch sample is very small with each of those lineups but not bad when combined, and the point is more about us gathering a pretty decent sample of the small look NOT working very well, which would suggest trying the alternative would be a good idea. The alternatives with the biggest small samples with positive outcomes are the ones where Birch slides into that starting spot. What exactly is the harm in trying?

                            And more to the point, how can we possibly say with confidence that Birch starting would not help the starters, when all the evidence points entirely the other way? If the argument is the evidence is not strong enough, then we should definitely not be able to say anything about the benefits or costs of Birch starting with confidence. Right?
                            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                            • Wouldn't be better for Freddy not make the all stars, snub..just 2 p$#$ him off, have a chip..so can even play better for the raptors. I think if he does make the all star, he'll regress, hope not..
                              I'm not the biggest Freddy fan, but honestly he deserves 2 make the all stars.
                              "Never apologize for coming to me. Office hours are for patients.
                              My kitchen is always open to friends"

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                              • Dr Hannibal Lecter wrote: View Post
                                Wouldn't be better for Freddy not make the all stars, snub..just 2 p$#$ him off, have a chip..so can even play better for the raptors. I think if he does make the all star, he'll regress, hope not..
                                I'm not the biggest Freddy fan, but honestly he deserves 2 make the all stars.
                                ....no

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