Everything VanVleet

[Maury]

Going ballpark here obviously, Gordon will make $14m, Shroder $15.5m, and Bledsoe $15.6 in 19/20.

Going up from there to $19m you see guys like Teague, Bledsoe, Reggie Jackson, Gary Harris...probably the only thing that differentiates guys like that from Fred at this point is they're generally starters and he's still a bench guy. Would Fred be starting by now in Minnesota or Detroit? Probably.

Of everybody just listed from $14-19m, I'd rather have Fred @ $15m than most of them. Whether or not Masai will want to do that or read the tea leaves on summer 2021 is another question.

But Fred just ain’t as good of a player as most of those guys. His strengths were invaluable in the playoffs but the only reason we were able to benefit from his strengths is that the team was built well enough to cover up his weaknesses and we had good matchups for him in the finals. He’s almost a guaranteed overpay unless he significantly improves his play making and on ball offence all together. Right now he’s a 5’10 shooting guard and that’s just not gonna fly against most teams, especially in the playoffs. He’ll be unplayable again if we end up matching up with Philly in the playoffs.

[S.R.]

But Fred just ain’t as good of a player as most of those guys. His strengths were invaluable in the playoffs but the only reason we were able to benefit from his strengths is that the team was built well enough to cover up his weaknesses and we had good matchups for him in the finals. He’s almost a guaranteed overpay unless he significantly improves his play making and on ball offence all together. Right now he’s a 5’10 shooting guard and that’s just not gonna fly against most teams, especially in the playoffs. He’ll be unplayable again if we end up matching up with Philly in the playoffs.

This hyperbole is too much, it was one series. I get that watching him against Philly was traumatizing, I watched it too. But that's a huge, very good defensive team that will give a lot of players problems - not just Fred. Nearly everybody but Kawhi had the yips by the end of that series. Siakam stopped trying to score on drives almost entirely.

Fred played for a championship team last year, started half the games, played 28 minutes, put up 11 and 5 and shot 38% from deep while playing good defence. And he actually got a Finals MVP vote and set an all-time Finals record for 3's made as a bench guy. Let's stop calling him things like the bold - most teams have at least one small guard who plays heavy minutes (most teams have several and there are still teams playing 2-3 point guard lineups).

I'm having a hard time believing anyone has to defend the value of FVV's contributions to a winning team after this postseason.

[Puffer]

This hyperbole is too much, it was one series. I get that watching him against Philly was traumatizing, I watched it too. But that's a huge, very good defensive team that will give a lot of players problems - not just Fred. Nearly everybody but Kawhi had the yips by the end of that series. Siakam stopped trying to score on drives almost entirely.

Fred played for a championship team last year, started half the games, played 28 minutes, put up 11 and 5 and shot 38% from deep while playing good defence. And he actually got a Finals MVP vote and set an all-time Finals record for 3's made as a bench guy...

All true. Was Fred really bad, or was it just a string of unfortunate matchups? Will Nurse and company review that video footage and come up with ways to play to Freds strengths and minimize his disadvantages? Some of the guys they are going to take a look at in training camp look like they might be situational solutions to Fred being 5'10". Is that what has been going on? If they want to keep Fred, they need to be able to throw someone in there in bad matchups.

Dan has already discussed the $ problems with Freds coming payday and the cap implications for 2021.

I want Fred back personally. I like guys that successfully bet on themselves. I want the Raptors to do well. It's not clear to me if both of these things are possible at the same time over the next few years. I think Fred's success is heavily dependent on who else is on the roster.

[Maury]

This hyperbole is too much, it was one series. I get that watching him against Philly was traumatizing, I watched it too. But that's a huge, very good defensive team that will give a lot of players problems - not just Fred. Nearly everybody but Kawhi had the yips by the end of that series. Siakam stopped trying to score on drives almost entirely.

Fred played for a championship team last year, started half the games, played 28 minutes, put up 11 and 5 and shot 38% from deep while playing good defence. And he actually got a Finals MVP vote and set an all-time Finals record for 3's made as a bench guy. Let's stop calling him things like the bold - most teams have at least one small guard who plays heavy minutes (most teams have several and there are still teams playing 2-3 point guard lineups).

I'm having a hard time believing anyone has to defend the value of FVV's contributions to a winning team after this postseason.

Fred was awesome when he was on in the playoffs. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a massive fan of Fred’s and the way he played in the finals was nothing short of inspiring. He was big time in a way that most people in this world just can’t be. But the problem is that the only way he can provide that kind of value is when you’re knocking on the door and you need a guy to make those big plays and hit those massive shots. In reality we’re not there anymore and we can’t cover for his weaknesses as well. We lost playmaking on the wing and that means the ball will be in his hands a lot more. In the playoffs (which we all agree is what matters most) the guy will struggle against a fair number of teams.

I hope he he proves me wrong as he has done his whole career. If I’m Masai it’s not an easy decision, like at all. But Masai is good at making tough decisions so I trust whatever he does will end up working out. The idea of having two max slots open to pair next to Pascal and OG in two years sounds pretty great to me, but that can fail just like it did for the Knicks this year.

[Puffer]

...The idea of having two max slots open to pair next to Pascal and OG in two years sounds pretty great to me, but that can fail just like it did for the Knicks this year.

The main difference being that it's the Knicks that it failed for. And you can't compare the Knicks to the Raptors without looking a little bit silly. Toronto is disadvantaged, without a doubt. But the Knicks are a laughable basketball organization who are only now starting to realize that. And I am sure they won't know what to do to turn it around. Whereas Masai turned it around far enough to win a championship. Any free agent interested in success will remember the talking heads disrespecting the Raptors and then the Raptors winning.

[Maury]

The main difference being that it's the Knicks that it failed for. And you can't compare the Knicks to the Raptors without looking a little bit silly. Toronto is disadvantaged, without a doubt. But the Knicks are a laughable basketball organization who are only now starting to realize that. And I am sure they won't know what to do to turn it around. Whereas Masai turned it around far enough to win a championship. Any free agent interested in success will remember the talking heads disrespecting the Raptors and then the Raptors winning.

For sure, that’s why I’m not scared away from doing it. Just keeping in mind that it could backfire. Difference is we’ll be fine whereas the knicks ruined the next 5 years of their franchise.

[DanH]

Going ballpark here obviously, Gordon will make $14m, Shroder $15.5m, and Bledsoe $15.6 in 19/20.

Going up from there to $19m you see guys like Teague, Bledsoe, Reggie Jackson, Gary Harris...probably the only thing that differentiates guys like that from Fred at this point is they're generally starters and he's still a bench guy. Would Fred be starting by now in Minnesota or Detroit? Probably.

Of everybody just listed from $14-19m, I'd rather have Fred @ $15m than most of them. Whether or not Masai will want to do that or read the tea leaves on summer 2021 is another question.

I can see the argument for keeping Fred at 15M.

But I also think 15M is the floor of his market. And his free agency class is awful, so kind of hard to be confident pegging a ceiling for that market.

[golden]

I can see the argument for keeping Fred at 15M.

But I also think 15M is the floor of his market. And his free agency class is awful, so kind of hard to be confident pegging a ceiling for that market.

There's a whole lot of recency bias baked into that $15M/year - very reminiscent of Biyombo. Even throughout the regular season, people were questioning his worth at $10M/yr. I don't recall anybody saying "Fred's a bargain at 10M and he's in for a nice increase when this contract is up." FVV's perceived value tends to go up and down with his shooting. And unlike guys with physical and athletic gifts, Fred may not get the benefit of the doubt if he falters this year.

But then again, there's always a team like the Charlotte Hornets and Terry Rozier. It only takes one GM. It could see the Mavericks making an offer an re-uniting him with Delon.

[planetmars]

There's a whole lot of recency bias baked into that $15M/year - very reminiscent of Biyombo. Even throughout the regular season, people were questioning his worth at $10M/yr. I don't recall anybody saying "Fred's a bargain at 10M and he's in for a nice increase when this contract is up." FVV's perceived value tends to go up and down with his shooting. And unlike guys with physical and athletic gifts, Fred may not get the benefit of the doubt if he falters this year.

But then again, there's always a team like the Charlotte Hornets and Terry Rozier. It only takes one GM. It could see the Mavericks making an offer an re-uniting him with Delon.

Yeah.. when you start overpaying role players you get in trouble. Fred is not a starter.. he can close games for you but that's what makes him a good 6th man. He should get paid what Lou got.. and Lou is better. Lou is making $8M a year.

If Fred costs way more (basically double what Lou is making) than you have to move on.

[DanH]

Yeah.. when you start overpaying role players you get in trouble. Fred is not a starter.. he can close games for you but that's what makes him a good 6th man. He should get paid what Lou got.. and Lou is better. Lou is making $8M a year.

If Fred costs way more (basically double what Lou is making) than you have to move on.

And ultimately that's the argument for trading him this year. He WILL cost way more, unless he's an absolute complete disaster this year, in which case you probably don't want to keep him anyway. So if you are moving on whether he has a good year or a bad year... What's the benefit of holding onto him?

Now, if you have no plans to use cap space at any point you can start to build an argument for re-signing him. But even then you have to make sure the value is there, and if he enters that free agency pool after a good season, he's going to get overpaid.

[planetmars]

And ultimately that's the argument for trading him this year. He WILL cost way more, unless he's an absolute complete disaster this year, in which case you probably don't want to keep him anyway. So if you are moving on whether he has a good year or a bad year... What's the benefit of holding onto him?

Now, if you have no plans to use cap space at any point you can start to build an argument for re-signing him. But even then you have to make sure the value is there, and if he enters that free agency pool after a good season, he's going to get overpaid.

Yeah.. it's the way I would do business but I'm not sure if Masai would. He might want to field a competitive team these playoffs even if it means at most a 2nd round exit.

The team I would look at is Chicago. They could use a point guard (Dunn hasn't really panned out and will be a free agent next season).. Fred is from that state so may resign.. but will be given minutes which is something he'd prefer I bet. Felicio would be my target. He's a scrub but making enough to do a 1-1 swap. Should be able to get a decent pick back. Maybe their second rounder which should be in the 30's.

[DanH]

Yeah.. it's the way I would do business but I'm not sure if Masai would. He might want to field a competitive team these playoffs even if it means at most a 2nd round exit.

The team I would look at is Chicago. They could use a point guard (Dunn hasn't really panned out and will be a free agent next season).. Fred is from that state so may resign.. but will be given minutes which is something he'd prefer I bet. Felicio would be my target. He's a scrub but making enough to do a 1-1 swap. Should be able to get a decent pick back. Maybe their second rounder which should be in the 30's.

I'd hope for something better than a 2nd rounder. And that's true for all our expirings. If we're taking salary, and sending the better player, need more than a 2nd.

Now, if we're doing that swap and punting 2020 free agency anyway... I could see them wanting Dunn back in the deal along with Felicio, ask for his RFA rights and the 2nd for Fred, give him a tryout in our better development system, and see if he's worth keeping around come the summer. Along the lines of the 2nd draft candidates Masai has added to the roster this summer, but with actual control next summer if they hit on that particular lotto ticket.

Should also be noted that the 2nd rounder from Chicago would need to be the lesser of theirs and Memphis'. Could also ask for a 2021 2nd, the better of Chicago's and NOP's. Chicago has a surprisingly complex web of 2nd round picks conveyed over the next few years.

[golden]

Yeah.. when you start overpaying role players you get in trouble. Fred is not a starter.. he can close games for you but that's what makes him a good 6th man. He should get paid what Lou got.. and Lou is better. Lou is making $8M a year.

If Fred costs way more (basically double what Lou is making) than you have to move on.

Yep. Nowadays you need to underpay role players to maintain the financial flexibility to add true superstars. That seems to be the formula that the Clippers and Nets were using - but it's good business, regardless.

A guy like Trey Burke has been putting up similar numbers to Fred for the past 3 seasons making around $2M/year. And Burke can actually run the point as a backup PG. Burke is not as good defensively (in some ways) as FVV, but if I have to pay $13M to $16M more per year for that extra bit of defense that FVV gives you... then no thanks.

When people start getting into the "well.... Fred was a contributor to a championship team so he deserves $15-19M/year" argument, then that's basically using the team's success against itself in negotiating. You end up paying a premium to retain role players just because your organization is well run.

[MixxAOR]

yeah I think Masai realizes that and won't overpay just like he didn't overpay Biyombo.

[Hotshot]

yeah I think Masai realizes that and won't overpay just like he didn't overpay Biyombo.

So if the Raps not going to overpay, do they trade him at the deadline?!