Everything VanVleet

[LJ2]

All I know for SURE is if Masai let's FVV walk this summer then his plan has absolutely go to be to offer Portland a package for what will be a disgruntled Lillard.

Lillard, Siakam Giannis. It's the only thing that makes sense

[golden]

Not to speak for someone else, but I think Golden's dispute is not whether FVV is worth 20M+, it's whether he is worth that to this team.

I think some team in need of a starting PG is going to take a chance on FVV and offer him the big bucks. I'm on the fence here because with Lowry only around for another season who is going to eventually take over for him? That player is not on our roster yet. Buuuttt, I'm not sold that FVV can produce as he has this season as a full time starter either.

Yep. My concern is that Fred doesn't really elevate other players around him, but rather he is the one who is elevated by them... especially other playmakers, like Lowry, Siakam & Gasol and guys who take the focus off him... like Kawhi. Fred's current type of elite role player situation is fine when you're making $10-15M per year. But if Fred is in the $20-30M range, then you need the cap space to go out and get those guys... just to get value out of FVV.

Just taking Pascal away from Fred seems to cause a significant dip - it's a recurring theme. But even an inefficient Pascal elevates everybody else. That's my idea of a $25-30M / year player. I mean our favorite analytics guru around here, DanH, just loves on/off ratings to evaluate role players (hello 2Pat!), and yet Fred has a pretty healthy negative on/off rating of -5.8. That's not a $25M / year player.

[golden]

Neither player is remotely the defender Fred is. We talk about production because that's what gets players paid in the NBA, not because it's what determines their worth. And you want to peg a guess how much Norm and TD will be making two seasons from now, literally one year after Fred would re-sign?

I don't think anyone is disputing that Fred at 30M is an overpay. The dispute is with your apparent expectation that he's only worth 15M or so at most.

In what universe is Dennis Schroeder (aka. German Rondo) not "remotely the defender Fred is"? Have you even looked at their defensive stats, e.g., D-PIPM and DRPM? C,mon, Dan... you're better than that. Dinwiddie... you got me on that.

And if you're talking about Powell vs. FVV, their D-PIPM ratings are exactly the same.. 0.29. TD2 will improve with experience and has vastly superior physical tools. He's already a neutral defender.... as a rookie. That's impressive.

[Rudy Bargnani]

In what universe is Dennis Schroeder (aka. German Rondo) not "remotely the defender Fred is"? Have you even looked at their defensive stats, e.g., D-PIPM and DRPM? C,mon, Dan... you're better than that. Dinwiddie... you got me on that.

I think he was talking about Powell and Terrence Davis.

[golden]

I think he was talking about Powell and Terrence Davis.

Powell and FVV have the exact same defensive impact rating. TD2 is not far behind... and he's just a rookie. With his physical tools, he could become elite. If TD stopped fouling 3-pt shooters, he'd probably already be pretty close to FVV.

[Dr Hannibal Lecter]

Wow...u guys really think he won't get more than 20 million..common man, I dont think u guys know how lucky we are 2 have freddy..maybe u guys should ask other nba players about freddy, kid can ball and his clutch, he did it in the finals, he is a must sign. I read something about Lillard, yeah his good, actually his insane, but I watched him last night, he cries a lot, thinks he gonna get calls at end of the game and shoots bad shoots, game is close shooting 3s with 20 seconds on the clock, bad game management, it wasn't just once.more than few times, maimi shouldn't even been close,he gave them chance 2 come back. Anyway he scores alot when he shoots 30 times or more, don't get me wrong Lillard is great player, but players like Lillards, Harden don't win championships..Going back 2 Freddy, u don't replace guys who know how 2 win..they get it..must signed.

P.S

Maimi is gonna b tough team 2 beat in playoffs, definitely stay away, I rather play bucks than maimi in the playoffs, told u about jae crowder, I remember when he played for boston, punk ass, we should of gotten him, very hungry, plays hard, Igudala is just the icing.

[DanH]

Powell and FVV have the exact same defensive impact rating. TD2 is not far behind... and he's just a rookie. With his physical tools, he could become elite. If TD stopped fouling 3-pt shooters, he'd probably already be pretty close to FVV.

Impact stats need to be used with understanding. Key context - they measure how effective a player is in the role they are in. So, Fred has decent (they've dropped off a good bit throughout the year, and should edge back up based on his history) defensive numbers as a starting guard who takes the best opposing guard every night. Powell and Davis post the same impact numbers in relatively sheltered bench roles, and even when they start or play with the starters they are not asked to take those assignments, they tend to be hidden, with FVV and OG and Siakam taking all the hardest assignments.

[ebrian]

Wow...u guys really think he won't get more than 20 million..common man, I dont think u guys know how lucky we are 2 have freddy..maybe u guys should ask other nba players about freddy, kid can ball and his clutch, he did it in the finals, he is a must sign. I read something about Lillard, yeah his good, actually his insane, but I watched him last night, he cries a lot, thinks he gonna get calls at end of the game and shoots bad shoots, game is close shooting 3s with 20 seconds on the clock, bad game management, it wasn't just once.more than few times, maimi shouldn't even been close,he gave them chance 2 come back. Anyway he scores alot when he shoots 30 times or more, don't get me wrong Lillard is great player, but players like Lillards, Harden don't win championships..Going back 2 Freddy, u don't replace guys who know how 2 win..they get it..must signed.

P.S

Maimi is gonna b tough team 2 beat in playoffs, definitely stay away, I rather play bucks than maimi in the playoffs, told u about jae crowder, I remember when he played for boston, punk ass, we should of gotten him, very hungry, plays hard, Igudala is just the icing.

Please scroll up and quote someone stating they believe FVV will get less than 20M.

[KeonClark]

He should get every cent he can.

Not necessarily. You're forgetting the "happiness" discount. If team a is offering you 100 million, and team b is offering 110 million, but team b is I dunno, detroit or minnesota, you might be a lot happier with the 100 million.

[KeonClark]

Schroeder: $15M. Dinwiddie, $11M. TD2: $0.9M. That's the range you want to be in.

lol

[slaw]

Not necessarily. You're forgetting the "happiness" discount. If team a is offering you 100 million, and team b is offering 110 million, but team b is I dunno, detroit or minnesota, you might be a lot happier with the 100 million.

Sure, but remember, Blake Griffin was traded right after the team gave shirts out comparing him to great historical figures and DeRozan was traded after being the ultimate Raptor for years. Take $10 million less cause you like Toronto and you might end up making $10 million less in Sacramento. FVV is way too young to be taking discounts.

[golden]

Impact stats need to be used with understanding. Key context - they measure how effective a player is in the role they are in. So, Fred has decent (they've dropped off a good bit throughout the year, and should edge back up based on his history) defensive numbers as a starting guard who takes the best opposing guard every night. Powell and Davis post the same impact numbers in relatively sheltered bench roles, and even when they start or play with the starters they are not asked to take those assignments, they tend to be hidden, with FVV and OG and Siakam taking all the hardest assignments.

More context: Fred doesn't always take the best guard. OG often slides down to cover SGs or even PGs. OG guarding Beal is a perfect example of that. And Siakam and OG, and even Lowry are able to switch so it often ends up being team coverage.

Even more context: Powell's last few months are actually much better than what is shown because he started the season off so bad, but appears to have found consistency with consistent minutes and confidence shown by Nurse.

[golden]

Sure, but remember, Blake Griffin was traded right after the team gave shirts out comparing him to great historical figures and DeRozan was traded after being the ultimate Raptor for years. Take $10 million less cause you like Toronto and you might end up making $10 million less in Sacramento. FVV is way too young to be taking discounts.

The Griffin scenario is exactly what's going to happen. Masai is going to pay FVV whatever the market dictates, with the knowledge that he's a tradeable commodity, even if we have to attach another asset to it. And that only happens as a last resort if Fred's contract is the one that has to be moved to make room for our first ever marquee Tier 1 free agent signing in Toronto.

I just hope Fred is reasonable... that's all. But he won't be.

[slaw]

The Griffin scenario is exactly what's going to happen. Masai is going to pay FVV whatever the market dictates, with the knowledge that he's a tradeable commodity, even if we have to attach another asset to it. And that only happens as a last resort if Fred's contract is the one that has to be moved to make room for our first ever marquee Tier 1 free agent signing in Toronto.

I just hope Fred is reasonable... that's all. But he won't be.

If you're rational and reasonable about every free agent, you'll lose out on every free agent.

[Hoosier2]

Yep. My concern is that Fred doesn't really elevate other players around him, but rather he is the one who is elevated by them... especially other playmakers, like Lowry, Siakam & Gasol and guys who take the focus off him... like Kawhi. Fred's current type of elite role player situation is fine when you're making $10-15M per year. But if Fred is in the $20-30M range, then you need the cap space to go out and get those guys... just to get value out of FVV.

Just taking Pascal away from Fred seems to cause a significant dip - it's a recurring theme. But even an inefficient Pascal elevates everybody else. That's my idea of a $25-30M / year player. I mean our favorite analytics guru around here, DanH, just loves on/off ratings to evaluate role players (hello 2Pat!), and yet Fred has a pretty healthy negative on/off rating of -5.8. That's not a $25M / year player.

In all my years of playing, coaching, and analyzing basketball and then discussing basketball (and the attributes of basketball players) with others I have never disagreed with a comment more than this one from Golden ("Fred doesn't really elevate other players around him"). I am not sure how to even respond to this. I am going to save this comment then we will wait and see what happens to Fred. In the words of the Terminator, "I'll be bauck."