Everything VanVleet

[slaw]

No complaints about Fred from over here, btw. I'm just replying to the Lowry comparison, which is odd.

Watched the Bulls/Heat game and Lowry's masterful fourth quarter. Hard to explain but that stretch illustrated the difference between him and Fred.: the judgement, decision-making, feel, the way his teammates reciprocate, how simple it all looks.

Fred shows lots of flashes of it and I think he will improve in his decision-making, which will go a long way. I do think the coaching staff could help him by giving him some meat and potatoes go to sets rather than relying on him to contrive something with four guys standing around watching him.

[DanH]

The main thing I learned about On/Off stats from 2Pat/Scola was: (1) Be on the court when Scola is Off and Lowry is On & (2) Don't overrate players using On/Off stats. This shall henceforth be known as: The 2Pat axiom.

And all advanced stats based on plus/minus, like RAPTOR, are still pretty noisy at this point in the season... surely you know that.

No complaints about Fred from over here, btw. I'm just replying to the Lowry comparison, which is odd.

Anyone who took away from the Patterson discourse that Patterson was really good definitely completely missed the boat.

Anyone who took away from that discourse that on/off stats can't tell you anything (especially when combined with the context of who plays in what lineups, role, against which opposition...), also completely missed the boat. The entire point with Patterson wasn't that he was good or bad, it was please start this man over Scola, who is completely useless. The argument was not even built on on/offs at all, but how effective each player was when playing with the other 4 starters against starting quality competition (Patterson was used to close games all the time because of this).

Yes, those impact stats are indeed noisy this early (though they are heavily weighted with priors to help stabilize)! I agree! Good thing we have last year's entire season to look at as well, where Fred similarly ranked very high in those metrics (12th in the league in RPM, for example, and 17th in RAPTOR).

The entire argument against on/offs is that too often it sees players who only play the easiest minutes, or ignores other players on the team who might boost that player's successes, and is seen to assign credit entirely to one player when it's really the context that matters.

But Fred's case is the opposite of that! He plays the hardest minutes. The bench falls apart without him, yes - but guess what happens when he plays with that same bench? Suddenly this disastrous bench that is responsible for all the trouble while he sits is perfectly fine (this actually undersells it)! Is it just Siakam struggling? Or does the team similarly struggle without Fred when OG or Barnes or Trent are covering the minutes?

Well...

Player | Net RTG with Fred | Net RTG without Fred
GTJ: +0.7, -4.4
Scottie: +2.2, -26.6
OG: +0.7, -2.0
Precious: +5.6, -16.1
Svi: +1.1, -17.7
Khem: +4.9, -9.1
Pascal: +0.7, -16.3
Banton: +15.6, -17.0
Boucher: +13.5, -22.5
Flynn: +11.2, -12.1

That's every roster player who has played 100 minutes. Notice a pattern?

I do! It's the same pattern I would dig up year after year when trying to convince people that Lowry was by far the best player on the team over DeMar. The exact same. Every player does better with him, every player does worse without him. Starters, bench guys, doesn't matter. Notice how those bench guys that absolutely cave in without Fred and drive that off-court number for him through the floor, notice how those guys are suddenly world-beaters with Fred out there with them? Kinda seems like the Lowry+bench lineups, no?

Yeah, crazy to compare Fred and Lowry, there's absolutely no similarity there at all.

I can do the more thorough thing and do that comparison for all the top players on the team to demonstrate that only Fred has this universal impact and other guys are more hit and miss, but please give me some credit and accept that as obvious based on the above. I'm tired from a decade of Lowry defending and it kind of sucks to have to repeat it now. You'd think Raptors fans would learn to recognize this sort of thing.

[DanH]

I am not sure what the position estimate meant? By looking on that chart….VanVleet is 95% PG and 5%SG….though his field goal attempts are more of a Shooting Guard than a Point Guard.

It's entirely meaningless. I think it might just be based on listed height and weight of the other players that were on the court.

[golden]

Anyone who took away from the Patterson discourse that Patterson was really good definitely completely missed the boat.

Anyone who took away from that discourse that on/off stats can't tell you anything (especially when combined with the context of who plays in what lineups, role, against which opposition...), also completely missed the boat. The entire point with Patterson wasn't that he was good or bad, it was please start this man over Scola, who is completely useless. The argument was not even built on on/offs at all, but how effective each player was when playing with the other 4 starters against starting quality competition (Patterson was used to close games all the time because of this).

Yes, those impact stats are indeed noisy this early (though they are heavily weighted with priors to help stabilize)! I agree! Good thing we have last year's entire season to look at as well, where Fred similarly ranked very high in those metrics (12th in the league in RPM, for example, and 17th in RAPTOR).

The entire argument against on/offs is that too often it sees players who only play the easiest minutes, or ignores other players on the team who might boost that player's successes, and is seen to assign credit entirely to one player when it's really the context that matters.

But Fred's case is the opposite of that! He plays the hardest minutes. The bench falls apart without him, yes - but guess what happens when he plays with that same bench? Suddenly this disastrous bench that is responsible for all the trouble while he sits is perfectly fine (this actually undersells it)! Is it just Siakam struggling? Or does the team similarly struggle without Fred when OG or Barnes or Trent are covering the minutes?

Well...

Player | Net RTG with Fred | Net RTG without Fred
GTJ: +0.7, -4.4
Scottie: +2.2, -26.6
OG: +0.7, -2.0
Precious: +5.6, -16.1
Svi: +1.1, -17.7
Khem: +4.9, -9.1
Pascal: +0.7, -16.3
Banton: +15.6, -17.0
Boucher: +13.5, -22.5
Flynn: +11.2, -12.1

That's every roster player who has played 100 minutes. Notice a pattern?

I do! It's the same pattern I would dig up year after year when trying to convince people that Lowry was by far the best player on the team over DeMar. The exact same. Every player does better with him, every player does worse without him. Starters, bench guys, doesn't matter. Notice how those bench guys that absolutely cave in without Fred and drive that off-court number for him through the floor, notice how those guys are suddenly world-beaters with Fred out there with them? Kinda seems like the Lowry+bench lineups, no?

Yeah, crazy to compare Fred and Lowry, there's absolutely no similarity there at all.

I can do the more thorough thing and do that comparison for all the top players on the team to demonstrate that only Fred has this universal impact and other guys are more hit and miss, but please give me some credit and accept that as obvious based on the above. I'm tired from a decade of Lowry defending and it kind of sucks to have to repeat it now. You'd think Raptors fans would learn to recognize this sort of thing.

I'm 100% supportive of Fred. And nobody is saying that Fred isn't good, or that players play better with him.... it's the magnitude of impact. It's Lowry like, but it's just not Lowry level... where it elevates the team to even faux contender status. There's no arguing that, man. C'mon, Dan.

[DanH]

I'm 100% supportive of Fred. And nobody is saying that Fred isn't good, or that players play better with him.... it's the magnitude of impact. It's Lowry like, but it's just not Lowry level... where it elevates the team to even faux contender status. There's no arguing that, man. C'mon, Dan.

So you think Lowry with this roster (sans Fred) has the team at faux contender status? That's your position? Really?

In any case, please re-read the thread. The topic was how terrible Claw thinks Fred is, others saying to give him time, and me saying hey, guys, Fred is actually already really freaking great, looks just like Lowry from a box score perspective, even the passing is nearly the same, which is amazing for a guy like Fred to work his way to, and heck, on top of that, advanced stats and on/offs suggest that Fred is actually close to if not already replicating the effect Lowry had on this team as the greatest Raptor of all time!

[The Claw Reborn]

So you think Lowry with this roster (sans Fred) has the team at faux contender status? That's your position? Really?

In any case, please re-read the thread. The topic was how terrible Claw thinks Fred is, others saying to give him time, and me saying hey, guys, Fred is actually already really freaking great, looks just like Lowry from a box score perspective, even the passing is nearly the same, which is amazing for a guy like Fred to work his way to, and heck, on top of that, advanced stats and on/offs suggest that Fred is actually close to if not already replicating the effect Lowry had on this team as the greatest Raptor of all time!

I have done so much penance for my previous indiscretions about VanVleet but that was 2 years ago before his bloodied face on June 7, 2019. But people especially one idiot who still hold a school girl grudge may not get over it until now, not my fault .

What I can say about VanVleet is that he is clutch, he thrives in the 4th quarter and his help defense against post up bigs is high level.

Other than that, he is still average in all aspect of his game…

But what I fear most of this season, now that Kyle Lowry is gone…he seem to want to carry the team on his own, the volume of shots and most nights his inefficiency affects the flow of the game.

He can step back to allow the young players to flourish but that’s on him if he priorities personal accolades vs. how he can make everybody else better

[The Claw Reborn]

The dick riding of Devlin has to tame down…him and Jack Armstrong should simmer down the overhyping of his possible ASG inclusion.

4 for 12 field goals (10 points) 4 assists, 3 turnovers against the Wizards after a better performance vs. the Bucks

just let it play out ffs, ASG is still too far out ffs!

[TrueTorontoFan]

That's every roster player who has played 100 minutes. Notice a pattern?



Yeah, crazy to compare Fred and Lowry, there's absolutely no similarity there at all.

I can do the more thorough thing and do that comparison for all the top players on the team to demonstrate that only Fred has this universal impact and other guys are more hit and miss, but please give me some credit and accept that as obvious based on the above. I'm tired from a decade of Lowry defending and it kind of sucks to have to repeat it now. You'd think Raptors fans would learn to recognize this sort of thing.

This is part of the problem. People keep trying so hard in the media to make the comparison and it just needs to stop. It isn't fair to Fred, and its disrespectful to Lowry. I personally think this team works as currently constructed minus not having another big prospect in the pipeline to help with depth at that spot.

I keep saying Fred off ball works. That doesn't mean he has to be off ball permanently but I just value the ball movement and his ability to relocated and get open and keep angles open. Its very top level stuff, very impressive.

I agree with you because I defend siakam all the time. I also defend fred to a lesser extent but I do understand the gripes.


I think there is a looming sense from some (not myself) that Fred has an ego and will never let Scottie thrive. I disagree. I think Scottie is thriving just fine but is just learning to be more and more assertive. I also think problems always get amplified after a series of losses.

[TrueTorontoFan]

I have done so much penance for my previous indiscretions about VanVleet but that was 2 years ago before his bloodied face on June 7, 2019. But people especially one idiot who still hold a school girl grudge may not get over it until now, not my fault .

What I can say about VanVleet is that he is clutch, he thrives in the 4th quarter and his help defense against post up bigs is high level.

Other than that, he is still average in all aspect of his game…

But what I fear most of this season, now that Kyle Lowry is gone…he seem to want to carry the team on his own, the volume of shots and most nights his inefficiency affects the flow of the game.

He can step back to allow the young players to flourish but that’s on him if he priorities personal accolades vs. how he can make everybody else better

his on the ball defence is definitely above average so that is something that shouldn't be understated either.

[The Claw Reborn]

This is part of the problem. People keep trying so hard in the media to make the comparison and it just needs to stop. It isn't fair to Fred, and its disrespectful to Lowry. I personally think this team works as currently constructed minus not having another big prospect in the pipeline to help with depth at that spot.

I keep saying Fred off ball works. That doesn't mean he has to be off ball permanently but I just value the ball movement and his ability to relocated and get open and keep angles open. Its very top level stuff, very impressive.

I agree with you because I defend siakam all the time. I also defend fred to a lesser extent but I do understand the gripes.


I think there is a looming sense from some (not myself) that Fred has an ego and will never let Scottie thrive. I disagree. I think Scottie is thriving just fine but is just learning to be more and more assertive. I also think problems always get amplified after a series of losses.

Lowry and VanVleet are different type of players but it is just natural for people to still have to bring up the comparison. He took the keys as the next point guard but he is more playing like an off guard.

He is effective with catching and shooting from the three point line or Zero dribbles…he is averaging 47-48%… a prototypical skillset of a Two Guard. When he dribbles the ball more up to Seven Dribbles, his FG% dips.

But as a point guard as we all pointed out in the other thread, there is so much to crave for from his game. I keeping tapping the drums hoping to see an effective PnR and PnP between him and Scottie

However, when it’s all said and done, something to be mindful…is he the right person to play alongside Scottie and maximizing the strengths of the rook?

So I don’t mind waiting to see how this evolve until the season ends.

[DanH]

Lowry and VanVleet are different type of players but it is just natural for people to still have to bring up the comparison. He took the keys as the next point guard but he is more playing like an off guard.

He is effective with catching and shooting from the three point line or Zero dribbles…he is averaging 47-48%… a prototypical skillset of a Two Guard. When he dribbles the ball more up to Seven Dribbles, his FG% dips.

But as a point guard as we all pointed out in the other thread, there is so much to crave for from his game. I keeping tapping the drums hoping to see an effective PnR and PnP between him and Scottie

However, when it’s all said and done, something to be mindful…is he the right person to play alongside Scottie and maximizing the strengths of the rook?

So I don’t mind waiting to see how this evolve until the season ends.

Considering the hope with Scottie is he develops into a monster quasi-PG and dominant on-ball threat, I would think a secondary playmaker like FVV would be the absolutely stylistic ideal PG to have beside him. No?

[The Claw Reborn]

Considering the hope with Scottie is he develops into a monster quasi-PG and dominant on-ball threat, I would think a secondary playmaker like FVV would be the absolutely stylistic ideal PG to have beside him. No?

I am craving for more Dan.

why I said, i don’t mind waiting

[DanH]

I am craving for more Dan.

why I said, i don’t mind waiting

I really would appreciate an answer on my question though. Do you disagree with that assessment? That off-ball play is a better indicator of fit with Barnes than on-ball play, considering the franchise's long term goal is almost certainly to have Barnes as the primary creator?

[KeonClark]

Considering the hope with Scottie is he develops into a monster quasi-PG and dominant on-ball threat, I would think a secondary playmaker like FVV would be the absolutely stylistic ideal PG to have beside him. No?

No Dan, Fred is clearly hampering scotties development. I mean, sure, scottie has the highest fg% of any relevant rookie. And I mean, sure, scottie has the most shots per game of any rookie not named Cade cunningham. But I'm still not happy with these last couple wins. I'm here for scottie only. Give me 20 shots per or give me death.

[MixxAOR]

No Dan, Fred is clearly hampering scotties development. I mean, sure, scottie has the highest fg% of any relevant rookie. And I mean, sure, scottie has the most shots per game of any rookie not named Cade cunningham. But I'm still not happy with these last couple wins. I'm here for scottie only. Give me 20 shots per or give me death.

Until there's a new toy in town and then it's scottie who will be hampering someone's development.