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Everything VanVleet

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  • Apollo
    started a topic Everything VanVleet

    Everything VanVleet




    Scouting report:

    A steady hand at the point guard position, VanVleet has shown he can be a coach on the floor by being the conductor of an efficient offense, while averaging a solid 16.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 7.6 assists per 40 minutes. He never gets sped up with the ball and doesn't get fazed by ball pressure or double teams. He keeps the offense flowing and his 7.03 pure point rating is fourth best among all prospects in our top 100. He doesn't turn the ball over by trying to make highlight reel passes, but he takes care of the ball and has displayed great vision and feel for the game as a creator for his teammates.

    VanVleet was measured at 6'1” in shoes during the 2015 Pan Am Training Camp with a 6'2” wingspan, which puts him below average in terms of height and length compared with most NBA point guards. He isn't a great athlete either, as he doesn't possess a high top speed or a quick burst, but he has an exceptionally high basketball IQ, can operate at different speeds and utilizes his strength well to make an impact in the half-court. VanVleet will have to prove he can translate his effectiveness against the more physically gifted guards he'll encounter at the professional level, but his feel for the game, on-court presence and stable demeanor will help his chances tremendously.

    VanVleet is a pick and roll maestro, with 58% of his total possessions logged by Synergy Sports Technology derived from him running the pick and roll. He's an expert at using the ball-screen to create space to get inside the arc to make play, often by looking to get his teammates into space to shoot by delivering accurate, on point passes to the roll man, cutters or spot-up shooters. He turns the ball over on just 5.9% of pick and roll possessions and is never rattled no matter what level of pressure the defense throws at him. With the NBA being such a ball-screen heavy offense, VanVleet certainly has the chops to create some points from this play type while he is on the floor.

    The key to VanVleet's effectiveness running an offense, despite not possessing exceptional size or athleticism, are his terrific ball-handling skills, coupled with his propensity for changing gears and keeping defenders off-balance. He operates at a pace that is unique to him, handling the ball on a string and finds a great mix between scoring and playmaking.

    His best chance to score off ball screens is by pulling up for a jump shot, usually a three point attempt off the dribble. He shot 37.9% on 66 jump shots off the dribble logged by Synergy Sports Technology. He's also a fairly decent spot-up shooter, converting 38.1% of his attempts in his senior season with his attempts split fairly evenly between the two shot categories. The majority of these are three point attempts when he has the space to shoot with only 41 jump shots inside the arc as recorded by Synergy Sports Technology.

    When he penetrates into the paint, he prefers to pass out rather than shoot because he isn't a great finisher inside the arc with a paltry 39.6% two point field goal percentage. third lowest among prospects in our top 100. While this poor mark does not fully remove him from draft consideration, since 2000 only Josh Selby and Andrew Harrison have been drafted while converting less than 40% of their two point attempts in the same season. To VanVleet's credit, he did shoot 45% from 2-point range in his college career as a whole.

    With his below average tools, VanVleet struggles to get his shot off at the rim and can't always create space to attempt a floater before he reaches the restricted area. While he can get his defender on his hip to give him room to make a pass off the dribble, he rarely has enough separation for a shot attempt either close to the rim or as a pull-up two point jump shot. He will have to combine a three point jump shot off the dribble with his superb passing ability to be a multifaceted offensive threat.

    VanVleet was one of the best defensive point guards in college basketball, but there are some question marks about how his below average size and length will allow this part of his game to translate to the professional level. He's constantly talking to by calling out plays and directing his teammates to where the action is heading. He can also pick up the ball before halfcourt to tire out his opponent and burn the shot clock by putting some pressure on the ball. He generated 2.5 steals per 40 minutes pace adjusted with his quick hands on the ball and will definitely provide some energy and toughness defensively.

    Although VanVleet may not have prototypical size and athleticism for his position, he is a winning point guard who has plenty of intangibles a team could fall in love with, which could help easily help him earn a roster spot. He has a number of attributes NBA teams look for in backups, with his ability to make shots, find the open man, defend with toughness and keep mistakes to a minimum. Those are skills NBA teams value, and VanVleet could certainly play his way onto a NBA team when it's all said and done.
    http://www.draftexpress.com/article/...g-Report-5494/

  • DanH
    replied
    JawsGT wrote: View Post
    20m per...does anyone really think fred gets that? That seems excessively high, is the cap gonna take another huge jump next year? Fred is awesome, but he is gonna have to improve alot to justify that type of pay. And i dont see that happening, nor do i see teams getting desperate enough to make that type of offer regardless of the FA class.

    I'd be hesitant to even pay fred a 4/60 deal, even if he is to become the teams starting PG. 4/52 or less sounds ok. And i think he csn be a starting PG, but perhaps not in the traditional sense. He might fit best next to a couple of guys that can ISO and/or run some PnR, but if he is going to be expected to carry a ~20% + usage as a starter, then that might be a problem. He'll have to improve significantly in the PnR, as a passer and driver to deserve that role. Maybe he can do that, we'll have to see i guess but i do have my doubts. 6th man seems like an ideal role for fred, he can handle some point duty, can shoot, plays great D and has the clutch gene i think, hes definitely not afraid.

    I dont see any reason why the raps should trade him though. There really is no reason for the raps to worry about his potential pay or potential trade return. If teams come calling then you listen to offers. Otherwise, let the season play out, evaluate what you got from fred, let the market decide what hes worth, and pull the trigger if you like the number or let him walk if you don't.
    Cap's not taking a huge jump, but there is a good bit of cap room out there and few players to spend it on, especially with these recent extensions rolling in. And the cap has been climbing consistently since the cap jump. The summer Biyombo got his massive 18M per year deal overpay, the cap jumped from 70M to 94M. That was a crazy jump. But now we have a typical jump every offseason of about 8M, a full third of that insanity, meaning the cap is projected at 117M. That's 25% above the new water mark that 2016 set at the time. So a Fred deal at 20M would be like a deal at 16M that summer. And there's not quite as much cap room as there was then - but Fred is also a lot further up the chain than guys like Biyombo or Mozgov were.

    And the whole point is that that sort of pay would NOT be justified. But welcome to the NBA, guys get unjust salaries (in both directions) every day and twice on Sunday.

    Your last statement is essentially what is of concern. If you have confidence that you aren't matching what the market decides (as it's not a huge leap to think he's in line for a significant raise next summer), your options are trade or let him walk for nothing. If you are happy letting him walk for nothing, fine, but that's a decision that needs to be made consciously, that you are signing up to likely lose him for nothing more than cap space.

    Leave a comment:


  • DogeLover1234
    replied
    I've turned into a huge Fred fan. He is a smart player who can do most everything pretty well. He's going to struggle around the rim, has to have the Chris Paul automatic pull up at the elbow to be a real PnR threat, but regardless I'd rather him than Rozier. That being said, he has some obvious limitations, though he makes up for most of them real well with intensity, skill and smarts, I'd like to see a contract in the 13-15 range. He's never going to be good finishing around the rim, will struggle to create his shot and likely need two other good ball handler (creators) on the floor. To me, FVV is a guy that really fits with the team and what they are all about, I'd love to keep him around.

    Leave a comment:


  • JawsGT
    replied
    20m per...does anyone really think fred gets that? That seems excessively high, is the cap gonna take another huge jump next year? Fred is awesome, but he is gonna have to improve alot to justify that type of pay. And i dont see that happening, nor do i see teams getting desperate enough to make that type of offer regardless of the FA class.

    I'd be hesitant to even pay fred a 4/60 deal, even if he is to become the teams starting PG. 4/52 or less sounds ok. And i think he csn be a starting PG, but perhaps not in the traditional sense. He might fit best next to a couple of guys that can ISO and/or run some PnR, but if he is going to be expected to carry a ~20% + usage as a starter, then that might be a problem. He'll have to improve significantly in the PnR, as a passer and driver to deserve that role. Maybe he can do that, we'll have to see i guess but i do have my doubts. 6th man seems like an ideal role for fred, he can handle some point duty, can shoot, plays great D and has the clutch gene i think, hes definitely not afraid.

    I dont see any reason why the raps should trade him though. There really is no reason for the raps to worry about his potential pay or potential trade return. If teams come calling then you listen to offers. Otherwise, let the season play out, evaluate what you got from fred, let the market decide what hes worth, and pull the trigger if you like the number or let him walk if you don't.

    Leave a comment:


  • GOLDBLUM
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post

    So, yeah, we agree. I'm just saying it's exceedingly unlikely the former is what happens.
    So... you're suggesting he'll ... bet on himself?

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    S.R. wrote: View Post

    I think if FVV will stay for a reasonable amount, he'll be here. If he wants $20m he won't be.
    So, yeah, we agree. I'm just saying it's exceedingly unlikely the former is what happens.

    Leave a comment:


  • S.R.
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post

    Bismack Biyombo entered summer 2016 as a free agent. He was going to get paiiiid. There was an argument to be made that he would be worth bringing back at the MLE. That argument, however, was not worth having, because he was inevitably going to get paid more than what it would be worthwhile to bring him back at. He got 18M per year. Truly a ridiculous number for him. And yet, completely realistic. Projected salaries can be both ridiculous and realistic all at once.

    Similarly for Fred. We can bicker about whether he's worth 10M or 12M or 15M. But he's a real risk to get a 20M+ offer that summer (another summer with significant, if not so significant as 2016 obviously, cap space and few stars), and he'll only get significantly lower offers if he plays quite badly this year, in which case the number we agree on for him now will drop as his offers do.

    So the question at the end of your comment is a conversation starter, but no more than that. The answer is, anything Masai would agree to Fred will not sign, unless the market is completely dead (like it was last summer), and vice versa, unless Masai is willing to punt on future flexibility and is willing to pay Fred like a starter.
    Sure, it's August. In the bigger picture discussion, whether Masai punts everything for 2021 cap space or holds onto some of the current assets is going to depend very much on the cost of retaining those assets. And yes, all of it is conjecture until contracts are actually signed, trades are actually made, etc., sure.

    Personally I don't see MU shipping out all the talent and crossing his fingers for FA. He's more of an opportunist than that, he takes advantage of what comes his way. Having talent on reasonable contracts helps with that. The Raptors depth allowed them to trade for Kawhi Leonard and Marc Gasol and still have one of the deepest teams in the playoffs. I'm just having a hard time seeing Masai taking a clearing the deck approach. I would bet on 1 max FA space for 2021. I think if FVV will stay for a reasonable amount, he'll be here. If he wants $20m he won't be.

    Leave a comment:


  • S.R.
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post
    What I would pay FVV would greatly depend on how he performs this year in situations where he is handling true PG duties and creating easier offense for others. Fred says he wants to be starting PG in the league, but I need more sample size on his ability to do that on his own, and without a safety blanket like Kawhi on the roster. Would love to see him step up and truly be the heir to Lowry, but I don't see it yet.
    If Fred is the same guy as last year, 28 mpg, 11&5, starts some games, closes a lot of games, plays defence, is a bench 1 and lots of 2 guard with the starters, shoots a good % from deep - all the same as usual - do you offer him anything for the next contract, try to trade him, or let him walk? And if you offer him something in that scenario, how much and for how long?

    Edit: I ask this because I don't think he'll ever be what you're hoping he'll be, he's a very different player than that. He's more of a Pat Beverly/Eric Bledose (though obviously different than both). He'll get paid for what he is.
    Last edited by S.R.; Fri Aug 2nd, 2019, 05:19 PM.

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  • Shaolin Fantastic
    replied
    ^ Especially considering how weak this FA class is. You know some dumb teams are gonna blow their loads on middling players.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    S.R. wrote: View Post

    Now I'm lost.

    A minute ago that number was ridiculous for Fred. Now some teams are going to give it to him. Somewhere between "Lou Williams makes $7m" and "lol overpay" is a reasonable number that presumably would be appealing for both a well run franchise and Fred Van Vleet. What do you think that number is and do you think Masai would pay it if Fred agreed to it?
    Bismack Biyombo entered summer 2016 as a free agent. He was going to get paiiiid. There was an argument to be made that he would be worth bringing back at the MLE. That argument, however, was not worth having, because he was inevitably going to get paid more than what it would be worthwhile to bring him back at. He got 18M per year. Truly a ridiculous number for him. And yet, completely realistic. Projected salaries can be both ridiculous and realistic all at once.

    Similarly for Fred. We can bicker about whether he's worth 10M or 12M or 15M. But he's a real risk to get a 20M+ offer that summer (another summer with significant, if not so significant as 2016 obviously, cap space and few stars), and he'll only get significantly lower offers if he plays quite badly this year, in which case the number we agree on for him now will drop as his offers do.

    So the question at the end of your comment is a conversation starter, but no more than that. The answer is, anything Masai would agree to Fred will not sign, unless the market is completely dead (like it was last summer), and vice versa, unless Masai is willing to punt on future flexibility and is willing to pay Fred like a starter.

    Leave a comment:


  • golden
    replied
    S.R. wrote: View Post

    Now I'm lost.

    A minute ago that number was ridiculous for Fred. Now some teams are going to give it to him. Somewhere between "Lou Williams makes $7m" and "lol overpay" is a reasonable number that presumably would be appealing for both a well run franchise and Fred Van Vleet. What do you think that number is and do you think Masai would pay it if Fred agreed to it?
    Suns and Knicks making ridiculous decisions on cap-space is confusing to you? Now, I'm lost.

    What I would pay FVV would greatly depend on how he performs this year in situations where he is handling true PG duties and creating easier offense for others. Fred says he wants to be starting PG in the league, but I need more sample size on his ability to do that on his own, and without a safety blanket like Kawhi on the roster. Would love to see him step up and truly be the heir to Lowry, but I don't see it yet.

    Leave a comment:


  • S.R.
    replied
    golden wrote: View Post

    Of course he isn't. That's why we have to trade him. Let the Suns or Knicks bet $15-19M/year of cap-space on Freddy.
    Now I'm lost.

    A minute ago that number was ridiculous for Fred. Now some teams are going to give it to him. Somewhere between "Lou Williams makes $7m" and "lol overpay" is a reasonable number that presumably would be appealing for both a well run franchise and Fred Van Vleet. What do you think that number is and do you think Masai would pay it if Fred agreed to it?

    Leave a comment:


  • Rudy Bargnani
    replied
    Yea, no chance he takes a pay cut.
    Corey Jo just signed for 3 years $37 mill. So about 12 per. That would be the absolute lowest he'll sign for in my view but I agree with other posts above someone will overpay him, maybe the bulls, and view him as a starter. Brogdon and Rozier both came off the bench lots last year and signed significantly higher contracts, granted to become a starter. In my view the only way he signs for 12-13 per year is if you give him lots of term, IE a 4 year $50 million contract. Lou's contract is the other end of the spectrum and is not a comparable in my view. He signed at a massive discount to stay in LA and have stability.
    We get to see how FVV performs this year before deciding if the investment is worthwhile or not. Hopefully he performs well and is a great trade chip or a great long term contributor to the team.

    Leave a comment:


  • golden
    replied
    KeonClark wrote: View Post
    Lol 7 million. He makes 9 right now. I'm sure dude is gonna take a pay cut after earning starters minutes and an NBA championship since the last deal.
    Of course he isn't. That's why we have to trade him. Let the Suns or Knicks bet $15-19M/year of cap-space on Freddy.

    Leave a comment:


  • KeonClark
    replied
    Lol 7 million. He makes 9 right now. I'm sure dude is gonna take a pay cut after earning starters minutes and an NBA championship since the last deal.

    Leave a comment:

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