Everything VanVleet

[DanH]

there are definitely posters who have expressed an unwillingness to pay fred his anticipated market value so as to not screw up the cap sheet for 2021. i would guess those same posters will have similar qualms when it comes time to extend OG.

But we don't need to extend OG. He'll be RFA. We can hunt for a FA and keep OG at whatever value the market decides with no real impact of one on the other.

We could sign Fred to his max and not screw up 2021 so long as we move Norm (who won't likely play into 2021 anyway). The concerns with Fred's salary should be long term viability past 2021, not that summer.

[chris]

I don’t think anyone has suggested losing any of those 4 players to hunt a FA. In fact those 4 players are the constants in who to keep while going hunting. The questions that arise are players like Norm, or how long to re-sign Marc or Serge. The questions for FVV are less about going hunting than just player valuation and appropriate contract size.

there are definitely posters who have expressed an unwillingness to pay fred his anticipated market value so as to not screw up the cap sheet for 2021. i would guess those same posters will have similar qualms when it comes time to extend OG.

[DanH]

i think there are some people here who would rather focus on hunting a white whale in the summer of 2021 than keeping the young core of a team that's really fucking good and just won a championship together, and i don't agree with that perspective.

i include in that young core pascal, fred, OG, and terence davis. we should keep these guys. if we have a chance at the whale in the summer of 2021 we should have tradeable contracts and a creative front office that i trust would be able to create the space we need to land him. i don't foresee a re-signed FVV or OG turning into a toxic asset like wiggins or love or griffin.

I don’t think anyone has suggested losing any of those 4 players to hunt a FA. In fact those 4 players are the constants in who to keep while going hunting. The questions that arise are players like Norm, or how long to re-sign Marc or Serge. The questions for FVV are less about going hunting than just player valuation and appropriate contract size.

[inthepaint]

Powell and FVV have the exact same defensive impact rating. TD2 is not far behind... and he's just a rookie. With his physical tools, he could become elite. If TD stopped fouling 3-pt shooters, he'd probably already be pretty close to FVV.

Good point on the D-PIPM. I feel Norm's defence is underrated, an he as an overall player has been underrated too, particularly this year.

Like, without looking it up, which is Norm and which is Fred?:

Player A: 3P% = 40.1%; FT% = 84%; D-PIPM = 0.29; points/36 = 19; STL% = 1.9; BLK% = 1; TOV% = 12.0; PER = 16.7; Drtg = 106
Player B: 3P% = 39.6%; FT% = 84%; D-PIPM = 0.29; points/36 = 18; STL% = 2.1; BLK% = 1; TOV% = 11.6; PER = 16.8; Drtg = 106

A few hints to help you guess: they're both 25/26ish, both got passed by a lot of teams in the draft, both had a solid foundation on the 905, one 'bets on himself', one 'understands the grind', both are great teammates, both had huge improvements in their games after coming into contact with Fred Jr.

[chris]

i think there are some people here who would rather focus on hunting a white whale in the summer of 2021 than keeping the young core of a team that's really fucking good and just won a championship together, and i don't agree with that perspective.

i include in that young core pascal, fred, OG, and terence davis. we should keep these guys. if we have a chance at the whale in the summer of 2021 we should have tradeable contracts and a creative front office that i trust would be able to create the space we need to land him. i don't foresee a re-signed FVV or OG turning into a toxic asset like wiggins or love or griffin.

[GOLDBLUM]

Between both the Ringer and the Athletic today I believe, both of them identifying Freddy as one of the top TWO free agents available. If we think the league is sleeping on this guy, or that we can get him on the cheap cause he’s not a superstar, we’re going to be sorely mistaken. Freddy is gonna get seriously paid by somebody, if not by us.

I can only hope that this year Freddy gets every Finals MVP vote — and makes it a no brainer to do everything we can to keep him 😎

[Moog]

Freddy will get $20 mill per yr for sure. If Rozier gets 3yrs/58mil. Somebody pays Freddy at least 4/80mil. To keep Freddy the minimum market rate is $20mil per year. Raps would be kind of foolish to let Freddy walk. Best thing is to sign him and trade him for other pieces if they don't like his salary. Kyle getting older. Keeping Freddy is a good move and signing him facilitates a trade going forward IF THATS the route Masai wants to take. We own FVV Bird rights. have to use them.

[Puffer]

In all my years of playing, coaching, and analyzing basketball and then discussing basketball (and the attributes of basketball players) with others I have never disagreed with a comment more than this one from Golden ("Fred doesn't really elevate other players around him"). I am not sure how to even respond to this. I am going to save this comment then we will wait and see what happens to Fred. In the words of the Terminator, "I'll be bauck."

That's just Golden. You'll get used to him.

[S.R.]

I've been proven 100% wrong by Fred. At his size and with what he came into the League with, I didn't think he'd amount to anything and was kind of irritated they 'wasted' minutes on him.

He keeps getting better each season and that's a major consideration going into his next contract. He hasn't peaked yet.

[S.R.]

Dude is a stone cold baller. Has to be one of the better shooters in the league to boot.

That 3 in KAT's face was fun.

[SkywalkerAC]

Dude is a stone cold baller. Has to be one of the better shooters in the league to boot.

[Hoosier2]

Yep. My concern is that Fred doesn't really elevate other players around him, but rather he is the one who is elevated by them... especially other playmakers, like Lowry, Siakam & Gasol and guys who take the focus off him... like Kawhi. Fred's current type of elite role player situation is fine when you're making $10-15M per year. But if Fred is in the $20-30M range, then you need the cap space to go out and get those guys... just to get value out of FVV.

Just taking Pascal away from Fred seems to cause a significant dip - it's a recurring theme. But even an inefficient Pascal elevates everybody else. That's my idea of a $25-30M / year player. I mean our favorite analytics guru around here, DanH, just loves on/off ratings to evaluate role players (hello 2Pat!), and yet Fred has a pretty healthy negative on/off rating of -5.8. That's not a $25M / year player.

In all my years of playing, coaching, and analyzing basketball and then discussing basketball (and the attributes of basketball players) with others I have never disagreed with a comment more than this one from Golden ("Fred doesn't really elevate other players around him"). I am not sure how to even respond to this. I am going to save this comment then we will wait and see what happens to Fred. In the words of the Terminator, "I'll be bauck."

[slaw]

The Griffin scenario is exactly what's going to happen. Masai is going to pay FVV whatever the market dictates, with the knowledge that he's a tradeable commodity, even if we have to attach another asset to it. And that only happens as a last resort if Fred's contract is the one that has to be moved to make room for our first ever marquee Tier 1 free agent signing in Toronto.

I just hope Fred is reasonable... that's all. But he won't be.

If you're rational and reasonable about every free agent, you'll lose out on every free agent.

[golden]

Sure, but remember, Blake Griffin was traded right after the team gave shirts out comparing him to great historical figures and DeRozan was traded after being the ultimate Raptor for years. Take $10 million less cause you like Toronto and you might end up making $10 million less in Sacramento. FVV is way too young to be taking discounts.

The Griffin scenario is exactly what's going to happen. Masai is going to pay FVV whatever the market dictates, with the knowledge that he's a tradeable commodity, even if we have to attach another asset to it. And that only happens as a last resort if Fred's contract is the one that has to be moved to make room for our first ever marquee Tier 1 free agent signing in Toronto.

I just hope Fred is reasonable... that's all. But he won't be.

[golden]

Impact stats need to be used with understanding. Key context - they measure how effective a player is in the role they are in. So, Fred has decent (they've dropped off a good bit throughout the year, and should edge back up based on his history) defensive numbers as a starting guard who takes the best opposing guard every night. Powell and Davis post the same impact numbers in relatively sheltered bench roles, and even when they start or play with the starters they are not asked to take those assignments, they tend to be hidden, with FVV and OG and Siakam taking all the hardest assignments.

More context: Fred doesn't always take the best guard. OG often slides down to cover SGs or even PGs. OG guarding Beal is a perfect example of that. And Siakam and OG, and even Lowry are able to switch so it often ends up being team coverage.

Even more context: Powell's last few months are actually much better than what is shown because he started the season off so bad, but appears to have found consistency with consistent minutes and confidence shown by Nurse.