Everything VanVleet

[DanH]

$19.67M is a weird number. Could go as low as 19.55. Not sure Marks is the best source, will wait for the BBall-Insiders summaries, but an interesting wrinkle to keep an eye on.

[Apollo]

So player option in 4th year. 2nd year dips 8%.

Pulling out all the stops to make next year's cap number as low as possible without gutting the team. I like it!

[planetmars]

So player option in 4th year. 2nd year dips 8%.

[DanH]

You are the one cherry picking your own strawmans (rookies, bargains, etc...) to rail against.

Rubio isn't the only example. Marcus Smart, Dinwiddie, Patty Mills, Bledsoe are all on non-rookie contracts with better PIPM than Fred. Some are way better defenders, some are way better offensive players. All are paid less or much less than FVV, for better impact. Rubio isn't the only example. Nobody is disagreeing that Fred's salary was set by the market, but it is inflated based on timing and being shielded in his role on the team.

Right, there are a handful of better contracts and a handful of worse contracts and a bunch of comparable contracts. Meaning he's not crazy overpaid. He's just not a bargain at this moment. If that's what you were arguing no one would be arguing against you. Your stance is that this is an incredible overpay and if it's that bad you should pretty easily be able to show how he has been dramatically overpaid relative to his production and impact relative to the average.

[golden]

Wait, so the bargain contracts are fair comparison but the obvious alternative bad contracts are bad comparables? Rubio is one of those guys who has been perennially underrated, with some early career limitations colouring league wide perception of him.

You rarely get bargains in UFA. Sometimes, sure, but UFA means leverage. Getting fair value on a UFA deal is a good job.

And I didn't say his deal probably wouldn't be a bargain. I said IF he stayed exactly the player he is now and makes no improvements over the next three years, it probably wouldn't be a bargain. That's a big if.

You think it's a clear overpay and yet using the exact methodology you brought up in this thread it looks an awful lot like not an overpay at all. Shouldn't you have a more thorough evidence for Fred's not being deserving of that salary than cherry picked single cases?

You are the one cherry picking your own strawmans (rookies, bargains, etc...) to rail against.

Rubio isn't the only example. Marcus Smart, Dinwiddie, Patty Mills, Bledsoe are all on non-rookie contracts with better PIPM than Fred. Some are way better defenders, some are way better offensive players. All are paid less or much less than FVV, for better impact. Rubio isn't the only example. Nobody is disagreeing that Fred's salary was set by the market, but it is inflated based on timing and being shielded in his role on the team.

[DanH]

But none of that applies to Rubio, the example you are deliberately ignoring. Rubio is a legit > 30MPG NBA starting PG who played more total minutes than Fred last year with vastly superior impact stats - your favorite. That's an extremely fair salary comp. At least you are admitting Fred's contract is and will "probably" not be a bargain. I think it's a clear overpay based on Fred landing in a great organization; however, this is a case where I will be delighted to be wrong.

Wait, so the bargain contracts are fair comparison but the obvious alternative bad contracts are bad comparables? Rubio is one of those guys who has been perennially underrated, with some early career limitations colouring league wide perception of him.

You rarely get bargains in UFA. Sometimes, sure, but UFA means leverage. Getting fair value on a UFA deal is a good job.

And I didn't say his deal probably wouldn't be a bargain. I said IF he stayed exactly the player he is now and makes no improvements over the next three years, it probably wouldn't be a bargain. That's a big if.

You think it's a clear overpay and yet using the exact methodology you brought up in this thread it looks an awful lot like not an overpay at all. Shouldn't you have a more thorough evidence for Fred's not being deserving of that salary than cherry picked single cases?

[golden]

Fred is 77th in PIPM. But playing minutes is actually valuable - lots of players can have positive impacts in smaller roles, but fail to maintain that impact when asked to do more. So for example, having a big PIPM but only being able to play 15 minutes a game is not the sort of thing a team will pay a lot for. They'd need multiple of those players to replicate the effect of having one guy with a high PIPM who plays a lot of minutes.

Adjust for total wins generated by PIPM and he's 63rd on the list. Being borderline top 60 in impact and borderline top 50 in pay is hardly crazy.

Heck, let's actually think for a minute. I wonder if any of those top 62 players in wins generated just haven't gotten to their pay day yet?

Mikal Bridges. Brandon Ingram. Lonzo Ball. Jarrett Allen. Donte DiVincenzo. OG Anunoby. Devonte Graham. SGA. Trae Young. Duncan Robinson. Bam Adebayo. Jayson Tatum.

Huh. 12 players on rookie scale deals, which by definition are not market value. So. Fred becomes 51st on the list of have-been-paid players in PIPM wins added. And 49th in salary. What a crazy overpay.

Yes, rookie scale players are better value than non-rookie scale players. Yes, some contracts are bargains, and if Fred is exactly who he is now for the rest of the contract, he will likely not be that. Though hard to say that Fred will see no growth in his game considering he is just entering his prime. No, Fred is not on a crazy overpay, he's paid pretty much exactly market value.

But none of that applies to Rubio, the example you are deliberately ignoring. Rubio is a legit > 30MPG NBA starting PG who played more total minutes than Fred last year with vastly superior impact stats - your favorite. That's an extremely fair salary comp. At least you are admitting Fred's contract is and will "probably" not be a bargain. I think it's a clear overpay based on Fred landing in a great organization; however, this is a case where I will be delighted to be wrong.

[S.R.]

Those are volume stats, which is basically my point that Fred is the product of minutes and role surrounded by a great organization.

Try looking at PIPM: DanH's favorite impact stat de jour. Fred is something like 80th. Ricky Rubio is 15th and higher impact on both sides of the ball. Rubio is making $16-17M/yr on his current contract. That would still be an overpay for Fred, but at least more palatable than $21-22M/yr.... that's crazy.

Would you rather have Rubio @ $16m or Fred @ $21m? Easy answer for me is Fred.

My only fear with Fred is his ego. The confidence has helped him blow way past expectations, but I'm worried about the potential for a DeMar/empty the clip dynamic. If Fred tries to be the man and go for 25 ppg but end up on poor efficiency because just can't actually do that, that'll be bad for the team and it would b better for him to stick to his strengths and play his role. At the same time, he's pushed himself to this point and developed really well and maybe he can get better at pulling off a higher scoring role with efficiency. I'm guessing Nurse will definitely give him the opportunity to try to grow in that direction.

[Apollo]

Those are volume stats, which is basically my point that Fred is the product of minutes and role surrounded by a great organization.

Try looking at PIPM: DanH's favorite impact stat de jour. Fred is something like 80th. Ricky Rubio is 15th and higher impact on both sides of the ball. Rubio is making $16-17M/yr on his current contract. That would still be an overpay for Fred, but at least more palatable than $21-22M/yr.... that's crazy.

Except when watching him play, he's an exceptional player. Rubio is not a better player than Fred. Break that down for us, with the film.

Fred rises to the moment, he's a winner.

[DanH]

Those are volume stats, which is basically my point that Fred is the product of minutes and role surrounded by a great organization.

Try looking at PIPM: DanH's favorite impact stat de jour. Fred is something like 80th. Ricky Rubio is 15th and higher impact on both sides of the ball. Rubio is making $16-17M/yr on his current contract. That would still be an overpay for Fred, but at least more palatable than $21-22M/yr.... that's crazy.

Fred is 77th in PIPM. But playing minutes is actually valuable - lots of players can have positive impacts in smaller roles, but fail to maintain that impact when asked to do more. So for example, having a big PIPM but only being able to play 15 minutes a game is not the sort of thing a team will pay a lot for. They'd need multiple of those players to replicate the effect of having one guy with a high PIPM who plays a lot of minutes.

Adjust for total wins generated by PIPM and he's 63rd on the list. Being borderline top 60 in impact and borderline top 50 in pay is hardly crazy.

Heck, let's actually think for a minute. I wonder if any of those top 62 players in wins generated just haven't gotten to their pay day yet?

Mikal Bridges. Brandon Ingram. Lonzo Ball. Jarrett Allen. Donte DiVincenzo. OG Anunoby. Devonte Graham. SGA. Trae Young. Duncan Robinson. Bam Adebayo. Jayson Tatum.

Huh. 12 players on rookie scale deals, which by definition are not market value. So. Fred becomes 51st on the list of have-been-paid players in PIPM wins added. And 49th in salary. What a crazy overpay.

Yes, rookie scale players are better value than non-rookie scale players. Yes, some contracts are bargains, and if Fred is exactly who he is now for the rest of the contract, he will likely not be that. Though hard to say that Fred will see no growth in his game considering he is just entering his prime. No, Fred is not on a crazy overpay, he's paid pretty much exactly market value.

[golden]

Minutes Per Game
2019-20 NBA 35.7 (8th)

Assists Per Game
2019-20 NBA 6.6 (19th)

Steals Per Game
2019-20 NBA 1.9 (4th)

Defensive Win Shares
2019-20 NBA 3.1 (20th)

https://www.basketball-reference.com...vanvlfr01.html

Those are volume stats, which is basically my point that Fred is the product of minutes and role surrounded by a great organization.

Try looking at PIPM: DanH's favorite impact stat de jour. Fred is something like 80th. Ricky Rubio is 15th and higher impact on both sides of the ball. Rubio is making $16-17M/yr on his current contract. That would still be an overpay for Fred, but at least more palatable than $21-22M/yr.... that's crazy.

[NeedTristanThompson]

Hope he reads this one.

Keep on betting on yourself, Freddy. Let’s go.

HAHA come on now golden ! Isn't that more KLOE's fault anyway like this man was on the floor all the time too and he was guarding someone???? So like I would think it's more likely FVV tryna cover for KLOE was more likely the reason for less than perfect defense on Kemba anywayyy

FVV BABY

#FVV2024
#JAMAL2024
#KAWHIIIII202111111

[Apollo]

You've earned it and still have to earn it Freddy....
You guys do realize he's being paid top 50 in the league

Minutes Per Game
2019-20 NBA 35.7 (8th)

Assists Per Game
2019-20 NBA 6.6 (19th)

Steals Per Game
2019-20 NBA 1.9 (4th)

Defensive Win Shares
2019-20 NBA 3.1 (20th)

https://www.basketball-reference.com...vanvlfr01.html

[Apollo]

Getting the bag comes with higher expectations.

More money in this case means more responsibility and more consistency for sure.

[GOLDBLUM]

Trey Burke is a significantly better shot creator and offensive player than Fred. He can break down a defense in the half court and score in the mid-range. That mattered the most for our offense in the last playoffs. He’s also just as good a 3-pt shooter as Fred. Fred is a better defender, yes, but is that trade off worth an extra $18M/yr to watch Fred dribble the ball for 15 seconds and then pass it to Lowry or Pascal to make something happen? I mean Fred was basically a pylon guarding Kemba, so how valuable was that top 10 guard defense anyway?

Definitely want to be proven wrong that he’s worth that contract.

Hope he reads this one.

Keep on betting on yourself, Freddy. Let’s go.