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2016-17 Raptors Win Projection by the Numbers

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  • #16
    Dan I'm a little confused. Why does the graphic of the projection for next year have last year's minutes/games in it? Specifically for Jonas and Carroll. Thanks!

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    • #17
      Scraptor wrote: View Post
      Dan I'm a little confused. Why does the graphic of the projection for next year have last year's minutes/games in it? Specifically for Jonas and Carroll. Thanks!
      If you click through and read there is a better explanation within, but here's a quick summary of the columns (note that they relate to the 8 steps listed above the chart). The first 7 columns (from Player Name to WORP/48) are all last season's numbers. The 8th column as well - it is the total minutes played based on the games and average minutes played columns.

      At that point, you check to see if the total minutes played for all the players add up to what they should for a full season. If not, you have to adjust everyone's minutes played to get the right total. Hence the "MP adj" column. You'll note DeMarre and JV's minutes tick up from 785 and 1560 to 912 and 1812. In fact, both players end up with even more minutes later on when I take the excess minutes given to DeMar and Lowry and give them to Carroll and JV instead.

      The point is to not have to come up with a minutes distribution from scratch - players who played a lot last year are expected to play a lot this year, and players who played little are expected to do so again. And if there are extra minutes to go around, they get spread around in the same proportions as the players played last season.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • #18
        DanH wrote: View Post
        If you click through and read there is a better explanation within, but here's a quick summary of the columns (note that they relate to the 8 steps listed above the chart). The first 7 columns (from Player Name to WORP/48) are all last season's numbers. The 8th column as well - it is the total minutes played based on the games and average minutes played columns.

        At that point, you check to see if the total minutes played for all the players add up to what they should for a full season. If not, you have to adjust everyone's minutes played to get the right total. Hence the "MP adj" column. You'll note DeMarre and JV's minutes tick up from 785 and 1560 to 912 and 1812. In fact, both players end up with even more minutes later on when I take the excess minutes given to DeMar and Lowry and give them to Carroll and JV instead.

        The point is to not have to come up with a minutes distribution from scratch - players who played a lot last year are expected to play a lot this year, and players who played little are expected to do so again. And if there are extra minutes to go around, they get spread around in the same proportions as the players played last season.
        Duh, I'm an idiot. I read the whole thing and it still didn't click. Might be worthwhile to hide those two columns as they aren't projections?

        Thanks for the hard work.

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        • #19
          Great work Dan. Always a pleasure to read your stuff.

          RR is lucky to have you posting on the board.

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          • #20
            Scraptor wrote: View Post
            Duh, I'm an idiot. I read the whole thing and it still didn't click. Might be worthwhile to hide those two columns as they aren't projections?

            Thanks for the hard work.
            I'd considered hiding them but wanted it to be clear where the initial total minutes came from (which obviously failed).
            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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            • #21
              Was waiting for these to be released, but you've done it for us. Awesome.

              Winshare projections were very accurate last year projecting us for 54 wins, I'd be happy with 52 this year because a lot of teams got better, not because we got worse, but expectations should be high with Carroll and sullinger in, compared to the warm bodies filling in last year.

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              • #22
                Raps vs Pacers round 2. Bring it.

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                • #23
                  If Golden State actually wins 78 games I really hope they lose in the playoffs again cause that would be hilarious.
                  The name's Bond, James Bond.

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                  • #24
                    007 wrote: View Post
                    If Golden State actually wins 78 games I really hope they lose in the playoffs again cause that would be hilarious.
                    Even if they get performances like the model predicts, I'd bet on them scaling back their top players' minutes big time and falling well short of 78 (probably still 70 or so).
                    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                    • #25
                      DanH wrote: View Post
                      Even if they get performances like the model predicts, I'd bet on them scaling back their top players' minutes big time and falling well short of 78 (probably still 70 or so).
                      They are so absurdly talented that they could sit either Stephen freaking curry or kevin freaking durant and still be the most talented team in the world.
                      It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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                      • #26
                        What impact does ACTUAL schedule make i.e. 3 games 4 nights or back to backs?

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                        • #27
                          psrs1 wrote: View Post
                          What impact does ACTUAL schedule make i.e. 3 games 4 nights or back to backs?
                          No impact on these numbers, not that detailed an analysis. Usually for most teams it all comes out in the wash - there are tough months but SOS tends to wash out close to .500 by the end of the year.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                          • #28
                            DanH wrote: View Post
                            I usually try to avoid posting my own stuff on here, but it's the long dreaded off-season so I thought some content would be useful. I've put together a projection for next season based on WS and BPM from basketball-reference. It's similar to what I did last year with RPM but I think a little more thorough and using two different win approximations gives a nice range of likely records.

                            Obviously appreciate it if you click through (there's a lot of background and a little bit of proofing of the method in there) but I'll post the projections and a decent sample of the text here, enough I think to get what I'm going for here.

                            What do the Numbers Say? Projecting the Raptors' Win Total for the 2016-17 Season



                            2015-16 stats:






                            thank you any Idea how espn come's up with there predications

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                            • #29
                              rightsideup wrote: View Post
                              thank you any Idea how espn come's up with there predications
                              I believe it is a bunch if writers just making guesses and then all those guesses compiled into a ranking.
                              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                              • #30
                                rightsideup wrote: View Post
                                thank you any Idea how espn come's up with there predications
                                Like they usually do...

                                Liquor and guessing
                                And with the 4th overall pick the Toronto Raptors select..... Scottie Barnes.

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