2016-17 Raptors Win Projection by the Numbers

[MixxAOR]

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[golden]

thank you any Idea how espn come's up with there predications

In the past ESPN used John Hollinger to make predictions, which were pretty good. Like that season Hollinger predicted 33 wins for the Raps, resulting in Derozan calling him a #clown. The Raps went out and proved Hollinger wrong by winning 34 games. Classic.

ESPN's John Hollinger Predicts 33 wins for Raptors. Casey, DeRozan disagree.


http://www.raptorshq.com/2012/10/25/...-casey-derozan

For the last few years, ESPN's John Hollinger has been one of the better NBA prognosticators, providing fairly accurate predictions of how each NBA team will finish the season in the standings.

In his most recent season preview, Hollinger predicted a 33-win campaign for the Toronto Raptors and a 12th place finish in the Eastern Conference.

Based on last season's win total as well as the question marks that still surround the team, a prediction of 33 wins is to be expected.

The fine people over at Raptors Republic compiled a list of projections from pundits around the web, and the majority of them were in that 33-40 range.

In the piece he wrote for ESPN.com, Hollinger brings up a number of fair points about the team and it's questionable future. He also mentions flat out that the team has potential, and if things go perfectly for the Dinos, they could very well be a playoff team.

From the piece:

"If everything goes perfectly fine, maybe Toronto will sneak into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed. But things rarely go perfectly fine."

A fair statement to say the least. However, when this subject was broached with Raptors head coach Dwane Casey at practice yesterday, things got a little interesting.

"I think I saw someone today predict we're going to win 33 games. So, With that lack of respect, that should get us motivated to come into this gym each and every day to bust our tails." Casey said about the report

"That right there tells us how much lack of respect the league has for us, and how much we have to continue to work to perform every day we walk on the court."

Casey's response is about what you would expect from a head coach attempting to motivate his team for the upcoming season, but it became a talking point for beat writers and bloggers because, well, it's still the preseason and there really isn't all that much to write about.

DeMar DeRozan, on the other hand, took things a step further yesterday when he tweeted the following:

"Who the hell is John Hollinger!? #Clown"

That was clearly an overreaction on his part--John Hollinger is anything but a clown. He is actually one of the best writers staffed at ESPN and is one of the best at using statistical analysis to properly back up his arguments--but, ultimately, DeRozan is going to need to have that type of attitude when it comes time to play the real games out on the court.

Fair or not, you want your players and coaches to be unhappy with low expectations. And, as a result, play--and coach--with a chip on their shoulders.

That chip is what is going to help the Raptors compete with more talented squads, just as they did last season.

At the end of the day, this doesn't amount to any sort of hard hitting news. But, it does show that some confidence is beginning to build, and exude from the types of people that need to be exuding confidence.

And that, at least as far as the Raptors are concerned, is rarely a bad thing.

[KeonClark]

Like they usually do...

Liquor and guessing

Aka: how keonclark makes football bets before nfl sunday

[Demographic Shift]

thank you any Idea how espn come's up with there predications

Like they usually do...

Liquor and guessing

[DanH]

thank you any Idea how espn come's up with there predications

I believe it is a bunch if writers just making guesses and then all those guesses compiled into a ranking.

[rightsideup]

I usually try to avoid posting my own stuff on here, but it's the long dreaded off-season so I thought some content would be useful. I've put together a projection for next season based on WS and BPM from basketball-reference. It's similar to what I did last year with RPM but I think a little more thorough and using two different win approximations gives a nice range of likely records.

Obviously appreciate it if you click through (there's a lot of background and a little bit of proofing of the method in there) but I'll post the projections and a decent sample of the text here, enough I think to get what I'm going for here.

What do the Numbers Say? Projecting the Raptors' Win Total for the 2016-17 Season



2015-16 stats:

thank you any Idea how espn come's up with there predications

[DanH]

What impact does ACTUAL schedule make i.e. 3 games 4 nights or back to backs?

No impact on these numbers, not that detailed an analysis. Usually for most teams it all comes out in the wash - there are tough months but SOS tends to wash out close to .500 by the end of the year.

[psrs1]

What impact does ACTUAL schedule make i.e. 3 games 4 nights or back to backs?

[KeonClark]

Even if they get performances like the model predicts, I'd bet on them scaling back their top players' minutes big time and falling well short of 78 (probably still 70 or so).

They are so absurdly talented that they could sit either Stephen freaking curry or kevin freaking durant and still be the most talented team in the world.

[DanH]

If Golden State actually wins 78 games I really hope they lose in the playoffs again cause that would be hilarious.

Even if they get performances like the model predicts, I'd bet on them scaling back their top players' minutes big time and falling well short of 78 (probably still 70 or so).

[007]

If Golden State actually wins 78 games I really hope they lose in the playoffs again cause that would be hilarious.

[Machine]

Raps vs Pacers round 2. Bring it.

[draps]

Was waiting for these to be released, but you've done it for us. Awesome.

Winshare projections were very accurate last year projecting us for 54 wins, I'd be happy with 52 this year because a lot of teams got better, not because we got worse, but expectations should be high with Carroll and sullinger in, compared to the warm bodies filling in last year.

[DanH]

Duh, I'm an idiot. I read the whole thing and it still didn't click. Might be worthwhile to hide those two columns as they aren't projections?

Thanks for the hard work.

I'd considered hiding them but wanted it to be clear where the initial total minutes came from (which obviously failed).

[Puffer]

Great work Dan. Always a pleasure to read your stuff.

RR is lucky to have you posting on the board.