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Should we re-sign Kyle Lowry next year or not?

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  • #91
    DanH wrote: View Post
    Probably in the range of 5/175M. Maybe gets down close to 155-160 with a player option in the 5th year, but I doubt it.
    5/175 is still a really good discount on his full max. If he has another season like last year, I'd be really happy to see it get down that far.
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    • #92
      DanH wrote: View Post
      Very, very seriously doubt we see Lowry taking that little. It would be great. But very unlikely in my mind, considering other teams can offer the same 145 million "effing" dollars over 4 years, not 5.
      Why is it very unlikely though? I don't think Lowry is going to have the same kind of suitors DeRozan would've had on the open market. Not that he isn't a better player, but he's going to be 31 by then and plays a position that's saturated with talent league wide. I don't think teams will be lining up to pay the full max for a PG his age.

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      • #93
        I agree with DS, I think Kyle will take something in the same neighborhood as DD. He'll be 31 at the start of his contract, nobody is giving him the full max imo. $150mm sounds about right.
        It’s Ogugua season. Time to gugua.

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        • #94
          Lupe wrote: View Post
          Why is it very unlikely though? I don't think Lowry is going to have the same kind of suitors DeRozan would've had on the open market. Not that he isn't a better player, but he's going to be 31 by then and plays a position that's saturated with talent league wide. I don't think teams will be lining up to pay the full max for a PG his age.
          He's making all-NBA teams. He's not your run of the mill PG. And all it takes is one team. You know Colangelo will come knocking with a max offer to go home to Philly. There won't be as much cap room next summer as last but there will still be a lot.

          I could definitely see Lowry take a big pay cut to stay here rather than the max to go lose in Philly. But not that big a cut. You're talking about leaving 50M on the table relative to his max salary.

          5/150M is the absolute best case scenario I can even imagine (barring an injury riddled season that raises even more questions). Remember all the talk of DD taking 5/100 or 5/125? DeRozan didn't even take meetings and he got very near his max.
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          • #95
            DanH wrote: View Post
            He's making all-NBA teams. He's not your run of the mill PG. And all it takes is one team. You know Colangelo will come knocking with a max offer to go home to Philly. There won't be as much cap room next summer as last but there will still be a lot.

            I could definitely see Lowry take a big pay cut to stay here rather than the max to go lose in Philly. But not that big a cut. You're talking about leaving 50M on the table relative to his max salary.

            5/150M is the absolute best case scenario I can even imagine (barring an injury riddled season that raises even more questions). Remember all the talk of DD taking 5/100 or 5/125? DeRozan didn't even take meetings and he got very near his max.
            When did I say he's a run of the mill PG? I'd rank him tied for 4th with Kyrie and Lillard and only CP3, Westbrook and Curry clearly ahead. And 5/150 sounds realistic. And I don't think a player needs to necessarily take meetings for their agents to be able to get an idea of how much other teams are willing to offer.

            The last time Lowry hit free agency he didn't get a max offer (or if he did he certainly didn't take it), and he was arguably coming off a better season statistically than the one he just had and 3 years younger than he will be now. I don't think it's insane to suggest he might take something maybe $10-15M higher than the DeRozan deal over a 5 year period.

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            • #96
              Lupe wrote: View Post
              When did I say he's a run of the mill PG? I'd rank him tied for 4th with Kyrie and Lillard and only CP3, Westbrook and Curry clearly ahead. And 5/150 sounds realistic. And I don't think a player needs to necessarily take meetings for their agents to be able to get an idea of how much other teams are willing to offer.

              The last time Lowry hit free agency he didn't get a max offer (or if he did he certainly didn't take it), and he was arguably coming off a better season statistically than the one he just had and 3 years younger than he will be now. I don't think it's insane to suggest he might take something maybe $10-15M higher than the DeRozan deal over a 5 year period.
              I'd love to see the argument for him having a better season in 2013-14 than in 2015-16.

              It's not insane to suggest 150M. I myself said that's basically the best case scenario. But that's not what was suggested. What was suggested was that 145/150 over 5 years was the ceiling. And that he should get offered DD's deal, not 10-15M more than DD's deal.
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              • #97
                DanH wrote: View Post
                I'd love to see the argument for him having a better season in 2013-14 than in 2015-16.

                It's not insane to suggest 150M. I myself said that's basically the best case scenario. But that's not what was suggested. What was suggested was that 145/150 over 5 years was the ceiling. And that he should get offered DD's deal, not 10-15M more than DD's deal.
                Well the advanced stats from 13-14 and 15-16 are basically a wash. However Lowry didn't get burned out due to carrying lower usage and as a result his playoff performance was orders of magnitudes better than the rubbish from last season. So I'd give 2013-14 the edge, especially given that playoff performances can often have a significant effect on free agency proceedings.

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                • #98
                  Lupe wrote: View Post
                  Well the advanced stats from 13-14 and 15-16 are basically a wash. However Lowry didn't get burned out due to carrying lower usage and as a result his playoff performance was orders of magnitudes better than the rubbish from last season. So I'd give 2013-14 the edge, especially given that playoff performances can often have a significant effect on free agency proceedings.
                  So... He got hurt in 2015-16. But also made an all-NBA team, the all-star team (voted in), and made the ECF's, none of which were true in 2013-14. Yeah, I'm going to go with his value now being WAY higher than it was then.
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                  • #99
                    DanH wrote: View Post
                    So... He got hurt in 2015-16. But also made an all-NBA team, the all-star team (voted in), and made the ECF's, none of which were true in 2013-14. Yeah, I'm going to go with his value now being WAY higher than it was then.
                    Not with his age being 31 going into next offseason vs. 28 back then. On his last contract we were paying for his prime years, this time suitors would be paying for maybe 1 or 2 more prime years and then a decline.

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                    • Lupe wrote: View Post
                      Not with his age being 31 going into next offseason vs. 28 back then. On his last contract we were paying for his prime years, this time suitors would be paying for maybe 1 or 2 more prime years and then a decline.
                      Oh, for sure. The value on this deal will be worse. But if you think NBA GM's will not pay through the nose for a top talent just because he's over 30, I've got news for you.
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                      • DanH wrote: View Post
                        Oh, for sure. The value on this deal will be worse. But if you think NBA GM's will not pay through the nose for a top talent just because he's over 30, I've got news for you.
                        Well 5/150 would be paying through the nose. I just don't see him getting max offers from other teams. In 2014 he only signed for about 48M over 4 years. I believe the max that offseason for a player with 7-9 years of experience was around $80M over 4 years? So he only signed for about 60% of the maximum amount.

                        Even if you think his value is marginally higher now because of all-NBA appearances and a playoff run, I would argue that's outweighed by the fact that you're going to be paying for him from age 31-35 or so those are very rarely a player's peak years.

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                        • Lupe wrote: View Post
                          Well 5/150 would be paying through the nose. I just don't see him getting max offers from other teams. In 2014 he only signed for about 48M over 4 years. I believe the max that offseason for a player with 7-9 years of experience was around $80M over 4 years? So he only signed for about 60% of the maximum amount.

                          Even if you think his value is marginally higher now because of all-NBA appearances and a playoff run, I would argue that's outweighed by the fact that you're going to be paying for him from age 31-35 or so those are very rarely a player's peak years.
                          You can argue that all you like. There will be a lot more cap room this summer than there was in that summer (yes, relative to the raw cap number) unless something drastic changes with the new CBA, so it's not really comparable. And there's a big step up from "borderline all-star in his mid peak with one breakout season to his name" to "all-NBA talent just breaking 30 and coming off three great seasons and two all-star selections." One is a valuable enough commodity the value of which will depend on the quantity of other PG's on the market, while the other is a sure fire max contract offer from at least one team.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                          • DanH wrote: View Post
                            You can argue that all you like. There will be a lot more cap room this summer than there was in that summer (yes, relative to the raw cap number) unless something drastic changes with the new CBA, so it's not really comparable. And there's a big step up from "borderline all-star in his mid peak with one breakout season to his name" to "all-NBA talent just breaking 30 and coming off three great seasons and two all-star selections." One is a valuable enough commodity the value of which will depend on the quantity of other PG's on the market, while the other is a sure fire max contract offer from at least one team.
                            I guess we'll just have to wait and see then, I don't agree with you though.

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                            • We should re-sign him, Masai will re-sign him, and Kyle will get paid. Kyle is the face of this franchise and the heartbeat of this team.

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                              • DanH wrote: View Post
                                He's making all-NBA teams. He's not your run of the mill PG. And all it takes is one team. You know Colangelo will come knocking with a max offer to go home to Philly. There won't be as much cap room next summer as last but there will still be a lot.

                                I could definitely see Lowry take a big pay cut to stay here rather than the max to go lose in Philly. But not that big a cut. You're talking about leaving 50M on the table relative to his max salary.

                                5/150M is the absolute best case scenario I can even imagine (barring an injury riddled season that raises even more questions). Remember all the talk of DD taking 5/100 or 5/125? DeRozan didn't even take meetings and he got very near his max.
                                I suppose BC could attempt to sign Lowry, it would make for a good story I guess. Even though it's super early, I would factor in that right now the projected top 2 picks in next years draft are both point guards. Might lower Kyle's leverage next summer.
                                Two beer away from being two beers away.

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