Who is the most overrated team in the East this year ?

[Niagara Raptor]

knicks for me ... they lost lopez who was a solid last year, replaced him with Noah who has played at a higher level than lopez but that was 2 years ago and is on the decline with age and injuries ... i really like noah i think most people to because he is a person who maximized his talent with hustle and determination but once your over 30 maintaining that high energy level is hard to maintain ... i am 31 and fit and i have tons of strength and stamina but i can tell my ever so slight decline from my prime, i know my stamina is not what it was when i was 20, and it takes me longer to recover, Noah is a pro athelete, has all the help money can provide but time is not on his side

and Rose same deal, last year i believe (could be wrong) it seemed like he would have 1 great game, 1 ok, and 1 bad, he could never be consistent in providing that all star performance, and its only going to get worse ... the only thing that age doesnt effect is your shot and he has none

KP is a great talent but i think he is one more year away from being what they need on a nightly basis

Melo, never been a fan, one of the best all around offensive players in nba history, but no defense, no team play and getting old fast, i never feel that he is the type of player that rises to the occasion when things get tough

courtney lee i dont know much about, seems a solid player but never a person to put u over the top and the bench is empty,

Knicks aint going anywhere, and if they somehow make it, its probably facing us or Cleveland so they have not much hope there
and there is always Dolan waiting in the wings to mess shit up

[JamesNaismith]

I honestly thought it was Boston until I talked with some casual fans (which also reminded me why I don't talk sports too much outside of here except in generalities) but it is FAR and AWAY the Knicks.

Like it's genuinely surprising.

Really?!?

Are people really high on the Knicks??? lol I thought most people were laughing at them after Rose took some meth and said they were the other super team.

[WJF]

I question if the Cavs are going to run away with the East like everyone assume or if they will have a bit of a championship hangover. JR Smith is not re-signed yet, Delly has moved on, as has Mozgov. I am not convinced of their depth for this year yet. Birdman Anderson, Shumpert, Mike Dunleavy, not exactly guys on the come up.

I think they will finish first in the East, but it will be a tighter race than many think.

[Just Is]

Really?!?

Are people really high on the Knicks??? lol I thought most people were laughing at them after Rose took some meth and said they were the other super team.

I honestly thought the same thing as well. I know I laughed. I was in for a real rude awakening.

On the other hand; I'm going to have a LOT of fun mocking my friends come the end of the season when they're lowered expectations still aren't met.

But yeah, the Knicks. Easily.

[white men can't jump]

I dont know if the Knicks are overrated...is anyone outside of their organization and delusional fans/media actually high on them?

Pacers definitely got too much love this summer. Would not be surprised at all if they put up a worse season than last year.

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[Miekenstien]

If the Knicks haven't been pushed by ESPN yet, it is just a matter of time. I agree pacers are meh to me.

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[tonious35]

All good choices. My dark horse is Indy. They are getting a LOT of love based on their moves and might have actually taken a step back if things go poorly. That team lived and died with their defence. We are pretty sure the offence got better, but we know for sure their defence got worse (probably much worse). A big mystery how it will balance out.

I think most people know that the Bulls are a mess and the Knicks will barely ever play together, and I think BOS will be good (though let's see how they survive on the boards before anointing them the Cavs' challengers), but a lot of people seem high on Indy and the flaws in their off-season seem mostly overlooked.

Teague and Thaddeus...why so many teams last trade deadline did not bite and take either of them

[planetmars]

I actually think Boston has a good team. I could see why they get the attention. They've had a storied history. A GM that's tenacious. A really good coach. Got the second best free agent on the market, and had a sit down with the best. And had a top 3 pick in a draft to boot.

Toronto is in a tough market. ESPN won't cover since their foreign and won't help their bottom dollar. And in Canada hockey and baseball are easier to sell. So no matter how good Toronto is, it won't matter to the US. They'll always be under rated.

Not really the poll question, but if I had to chose a team I think is going to fall flat on their faces.. I'd have to go with Atlanta. I think swapping Horford for Dwight was a terrible decision. Selfishly, I hope that happens so that Millsap becomes available in the trade market.

[Miekenstien]

I actually think Boston has a good team. I could see why they get the attention. They've had a storied history. A GM that's tenacious. A really good coach. Got the second best free agent on the market, and had a sit down with the best. And had a top 3 pick in a draft to boot.

Toronto is in a tough market. ESPN won't cover since their foreign and won't help their bottom dollar. And in Canada hockey and baseball are easier to sell. So no matter how good Toronto is, it won't matter to the US. They'll always be under rated.

Not really the poll question, but if I had to chose a team I think is going to fall flat on their faces.. I'd have to go with Atlanta. I think swapping Horford for Dwight was a terrible decision. Selfishly, I hope that happens so that Millsap becomes available in the trade market.

I agree boston looks nice but I think Millsap beside Dwight is nice. It all depends on if Dwight comes to play.

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[DanH]

I actually think Boston has a good team. I could see why they get the attention. They've had a storied history. A GM that's tenacious. A really good coach. Got the second best free agent on the market, and had a sit down with the best. And had a top 3 pick in a draft to boot.

Toronto is in a tough market. ESPN won't cover since their foreign and won't help their bottom dollar. And in Canada hockey and baseball are easier to sell. So no matter how good Toronto is, it won't matter to the US. They'll always be under rated.

Not really the poll question, but if I had to chose a team I think is going to fall flat on their faces.. I'd have to go with Atlanta. I think swapping Horford for Dwight was a terrible decision. Selfishly, I hope that happens so that Millsap becomes available in the trade market.

The thing about BOS is everyone asks about what they got but not what they lost. Turner was a key ball handler for them and although not a great player was still important to what they did. And it's not like Horford is filling an empty spot - he's replacing Sully who was a pretty effective player himself.

[golden]

People seem to forget that the Raps played with a glaring hole all of last season - DeMarre Carroll.

If JYD 2.0 can even play to the level of JYD 1.0, instead of last season's JYD 0.2, then that's like the Raps making a marquee free agent signing this off-season with a perfect fit in a position of high need (big SF). Assuming Carroll stays healthy and plays well and fits with Lowry/DD (all big IFs, though), that should keep the Raps in the 50 win range once again.

[MACK11]

The Indiana Pacers and the Knicks for the casual fans. The amount of people I've talked to here in the US that hype up the Knicks is insane. Knicks aren't even gonna win 40 games.

[slaw]

People seem to forget that the Raps played with a glaring hole all of last season - DeMarre Carroll.

If JYD 2.0 can even play to the level of JYD 1.0, instead of last season's JYD 0.2, then that's like the Raps making a marquee free agent signing this off-season with a perfect fit in a position of high need (big SF). Assuming Carroll stays healthy and plays well and fits with Lowry/DD (all big IFs, though), that should keep the Raps in the 50 win range once again.

Well, they also played without JV for ~25% of the season and the PF spot was a mess. I've made this point before: it's not as though this team had massive overachievement from a bunch of players. Even a guy like BB who had a "breakout" year and got paid big bucks, pretty much just provided his career average numbers.

As for overrated, it's hard to say as I haven't seen a lot of the official predictions yet. I'm inclined to think Indy might be getting too much love (if the Raps made the moves Indy made people here would be rending garments and wailing in the streets) and the Knicks will likely get too much press (being in NYC and all). Thing is, after the Cavs in Tier 1 and the Raps/Celts in Tier 2, there's a glut of teams in that third Tier. Honestly, you could have up to 9 teams fighting for those 5 playoff spots if everyone stays healthy. It's hard to overrate anyone in that mess...

[DanH]

Quick consideration of why BOS's off-season was not as great as some think:

Team | OREB% rank | DREB% rank
BOS | 10th (25.1%) | 25th (74.6%)
ATL | 30th | 26th

Player | OREB% | DREB%
Jared Sullinger | 10.6% | 27.0%
Al Horford | 6.3% | 18.2%

If we expect everyone else on the team to rebound at roughly the same rate, then for the part of the game where Sully played last season, this means a drop off of 4.3% in OREB's and 8.8% in defensive rebounds. Sully played almost exactly half of the game (23.6 MPG) so the team numbers should be impacted by 2.1% and 4.4%. That leaves them at roughly 23% and 70%. Those would have ranked 23rd and 30th (by a mile) last season. This all assumes any minutes Horford plays beyond 24 MPG he is replacing someone who is as poor a rebounder as he is, a generous assumption.

If we are really generous, we say that other players stepping up halves that impact, and they end up at 24% and 72%. That would be 15th and 30th (by less margin).

More directly, it shifts their ORTG and DRTG. If last season, the Celtics had an OREB% of 25.1%, and an ORTG of 106.8, it means they really scored 106.8 points per 125.1 plays (where 25.1 of those was after an offensive rebound). Ignoring the increased efficiency after a rebound (to be generous), that means this year, if they make no improvements to their offence (wait on this, I know Horford will help here), they will score 106.8 points per 125.1 plays as well. But instead of getting 125.1 plays per 100 possessions, they will get 124. Meaning their new ORTG is 105.9.

So already, any offensive improvement Horford brings to the team is suppressed by 0.9 PPC (points per 100 possessions) as the decreased offensive rebounding will counteract some of that.

Same logic for DRTG. With a 74.6% DREB%, it means the 103.6 DRTG they had was actually 103.6 points allowed over 100 possessions - but 25.4% of those possessions were two plays (one where the first play failed and there was an offensive board to start the next one). So they really allowed 103.6 points in 125.4 plays. This year, they will (again, assuming no change to their defence) allow 103.6 points per 125.4 plays, but the opposition will get more plays per 100 possessions. So the new DRTG works out to 105.7. That's a pretty huge 2.1 PPC hit on the defensive end.

So right away, any defensive improvement from Horford is counteracted by 2.1 points per 100 possessions.

Remember, this is all with the fairly generous assumptions that a) Horford's minutes beyond 24 MPG will not represent a drop off in rebounding as well, only his 24 MPG replacing Sully, and that b) various BOS players will rebound better without Sully there grabbing up all the boards, and as such the apparent drop in rebounding from Sully to Horford will be cut in half, and that c) rebounding loss only impacts possession count, and not efficiency differences after a rebound, even though offensive putbacks and transition plays off of defensive rebounds are definitely high-efficiency plays. A lot of generosity there, and we are still looking at a 3 PPC hit to Horford's impact right out of the gate. That's a big hit to overcome.

Another way to look at it: to maintain (not improve, maintain) their ORTG and DRTG from last season, but with worse rebounding rates, they will need to effectively play with a ORTG of 107.7 and a DRTG of 101.5 (scoring rate, not considering rebound rates). That would be a 2 spot jump in ORTG rankings and a 2 spot jump in DRTG rankings, to the 9th and 2nd best ORTG and DRTG respectively. That's just to counteract the rebounding rate. Or, to look at it another way, if they don't see improved offence and defence because of Horford, and score and defend at the same rate while giving up more rebounds, they would sit at an ORTG and DRTG of 105.9 and 105.7. That's a pythagorean win expectation of 41.5 wins.

Point being, I don't think nearly enough is being made of the rebounding situation in BOS and they will struggle to take a significant step forward even if Horford does consistently help them improve their scoring and defending.

[GLF]

Quick consideration of why BOS's off-season was not as great as some think:

Team | OREB% rank | DREB% rank
BOS | 10th (25.1%) | 25th (74.6%)
ATL | 30th | 26th

Player | OREB% | DREB%
Jared Sullinger | 10.6% | 27.0%
Al Horford | 6.3% | 18.2%

If we expect everyone else on the team to rebound at roughly the same rate, then for the part of the game where Sully played last season, this means a drop off of 4.3% in OREB's and 8.8% in defensive rebounds. Sully played almost exactly half of the game (23.6 MPG) so the team numbers should be impacted by 2.1% and 4.4%. That leaves them at roughly 23% and 70%. Those would have ranked 23rd and 30th (by a mile) last season. This all assumes any minutes Horford plays beyond 24 MPG he is replacing someone who is as poor a rebounder as he is, a generous assumption.

If we are really generous, we say that other players stepping up halves that impact, and they end up at 24% and 72%. That would be 15th and 30th (by less margin).

More directly, it shifts their ORTG and DRTG. If last season, the Celtics had an OREB% of 25.1%, and an ORTG of 106.8, it means they really scored 106.8 points per 125.1 plays (where 25.1 of those was after an offensive rebound). Ignoring the increased efficiency after a rebound (to be generous), that means this year, if they make no improvements to their offence (wait on this, I know Horford will help here), they will score 106.8 points per 125.1 plays as well. But instead of getting 125.1 plays per 100 possessions, they will get 124. Meaning their new ORTG is 105.9.

So already, any offensive improvement Horford brings to the team is suppressed by 0.9 PPC (points per 100 possessions) as the decreased offensive rebounding will counteract some of that.

Same logic for DRTG. With a 74.6% DREB%, it means the 103.6 DRTG they had was actually 103.6 points allowed over 100 possessions - but 25.4% of those possessions were two plays (one where the first play failed and there was an offensive board to start the next one). So they really allowed 103.6 points in 125.4 plays. This year, they will (again, assuming no change to their defence) allow 103.6 points per 125.4 plays, but the opposition will get more plays per 100 possessions. So the new DRTG works out to 105.7. That's a pretty huge 2.1 PPC hit on the defensive end.

So right away, any defensive improvement from Horford is counteracted by 2.1 points per 100 possessions.

Remember, this is all with the fairly generous assumptions that a) Horford's minutes beyond 24 MPG will not represent a drop off in rebounding as well, only his 24 MPG replacing Sully, and that b) various BOS players will rebound better without Sully there grabbing up all the boards, and as such the apparent drop in rebounding from Sully to Horford will be cut in half, and that c) rebounding loss only impacts possession count, and not efficiency differences after a rebound, even though offensive putbacks and transition plays off of defensive rebounds are definitely high-efficiency plays. A lot of generosity there, and we are still looking at a 3 PPC hit to Horford's impact right out of the gate. That's a big hit to overcome.

Another way to look at it: to maintain (not improve, maintain) their ORTG and DRTG from last season, but with worse rebounding rates, they will need to effectively play with a ORTG of 107.7 and a DRTG of 101.5 (scoring rate, not considering rebound rates). That would be a 2 spot jump in ORTG rankings and a 2 spot jump in DRTG rankings, to the 9th and 2nd best ORTG and DRTG respectively. That's just to counteract the rebounding rate. Or, to look at it another way, if they don't see improved offence and defence because of Horford, and score and defend at the same rate while giving up more rebounds, they would sit at an ORTG and DRTG of 105.9 and 105.7. That's a pythagorean win expectation of 41.5 wins.

Point being, I don't think nearly enough is being made of the rebounding situation in BOS and they will struggle to take a significant step forward even if Horford does consistently help them improve their scoring and defending.

Damn! You went in! Lol. Very informative