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  • Even if Bosh gets waived or acquired via trade, I think it will take somr time until Bosh produces at the expected level. Its also possible that Bosh never plays at his previous level before..
    And since milsap is almost entering the declining stage...
    Lets get boogie lets get boogie lets get boogie lets get boogie lets get boogie lets get boogie lets get boogie lets get boogie letd get boogie lets get boogie lets get boogie lets get boogie lets get boogie x 53874382664
    Last edited by Triplethreat89; Tue Oct 18th, 2016, 07:15 PM.

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    • DanH wrote: View Post
      No, obtaining Millsap probably hurts depth more (as a deal presumably has role players like Ross or PP outgoing), but helps with the starting lineup incredibly, addressing our key weakness while keeping our top 3 players. Obtaining Cousins lets you keep the depth (while losing prospects and picks) but provides a more nominal upgrade on JV (who by many measures is a far more effective player than Cousins has been, or at least comparable) while leaving the weakness at PF in place.
      I don't think JV is even close to Cousins so I guess that's where we differ. To me that "nominal difference" is like the gap between DeRozan and Harden. If we had Harden instead of DeRozan we'd have a chance at getting out of the east over Cleveland.

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      • Lupe wrote: View Post
        I don't think JV is even close to Cousins so I guess that's where we differ. To me that "nominal difference" is like the gap between DeRozan and Harden. If we had Harden instead of DeRozan we'd have a chance at getting out of the east over Cleveland.
        Dan's right about Cousins being 'marginally' better in many respects. It becomes apparent when you look at last season's advanced stats that many people's perceptions of Boogie are heavily colored by his massive 35% Usage. JV blows Cousins completely out of the water in offensive efficiency. JV is slightly better in rebounding, blocks and less turnovers. DMC is better at assists and steals. But once you factor in Cousin's 35% vs. JV's 20% usage, then you would expect Cousin's to have significantly higher raw stats.

        Looking at the numbers, the first thing that jumps out is that I have no idea how anybody can call an NBA center a superstar when he shoots only .451 FG%. Cousins truly is the Rudy Gay of centers. Secondly, that 35% usage is ridiculous. Raps don't need another high usage guy, unless they'd plan to play one of DMC, DD or Lowry as sixth man.



        http://www.basketball-reference.com/...side01&y2=2016
        Last edited by golden; Wed Oct 19th, 2016, 12:11 AM.

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        • Lupe wrote: View Post
          I don't think JV is even close to Cousins so I guess that's where we differ. To me that "nominal difference" is like the gap between DeRozan and Harden. If we had Harden instead of DeRozan we'd have a chance at getting out of the east over Cleveland.
          Never thought about it that way before. Good point. DMC plays just fine on team USA. Never hear about him being a head case on those teams. It's all about structure from management down to coaching. Kings have never had that while Boogie was there. Raptors do.
          @Chr1st1anL

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          • golden wrote: View Post
            Dan's right about Cousins being 'marginally' better in many respects. It becomes apparent when you look at last season's advanced stats that many people's perceptions of Boogie are heavily colored by his massive 35% Usage. JV blows Cousins completely out of the water in offensive efficiency. JV is slightly better in rebounding, blocks and less turnovers. DMC is better at assists and steals. But once you factor in Cousin's 35% vs. JV's 20% usage, then you would expect Cousin's to have significantly higher raw stats.

            Looking at the numbers, the first thing that jumps out is that I have no idea how anybody can call an NBA center a superstar when he shoots only .451 FG%. Cousins truly is the Rudy Gay of centers. Secondly, that 35% usage is ridiculous. Raps don't need another high usage guy, unless they'd plan to play one of DMC, DD or Lowry as sixth man.



            http://www.basketball-reference.com/...side01&y2=2016
            He wouldn't be handling 35% usage on our team. You can't just point to how high his usage is and then just ignore that by saying JV blows him out of the water in efficiency. JV would have a TS% in the 40s if his usage was that high.

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            • Lupe wrote: View Post
              He wouldn't be handling 35% usage on our team. You can't just point to how high his usage is and then just ignore that by saying JV blows him out of the water in efficiency. JV would have a TS% in the 40s if his usage was that high.
              Yes, but we can't say how valuable he would be on a lower usage, we've never seen him carry a low usage. We don't need a player who carries 30% usage - if we want him to do that, we should be trading DD for him, not JV. In the meantime, his rebounding is roughly equivalent to JV's, his offensive efficiency in a low usage role may or may not be as good as JV's, and his defence is pretty good (better than JV's). We can say that in general, Cousins has been more efficient when he's had higher usage, not the other way around, so hard to be too confident in him putting up JV-level efficiency.

              So basically we'd be trading one of our most valuable players (and a stockpile of picks and prospects) for a guy who we have no idea would fit here, and have no idea if he'd be seen as a star in this system with these teammates.

              Not a roll of the dice I'd be super excited about.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • DanH wrote: View Post
                Yes, but we can't say how valuable he would be on a lower usage, we've never seen him carry a low usage. We don't need a player who carries 30% usage - if we want him to do that, we should be trading DD for him, not JV. In the meantime, his rebounding is roughly equivalent to JV's, his offensive efficiency in a low usage role may or may not be as good as JV's, and his defence is pretty good (better than JV's). We can say that in general, Cousins has been more efficient when he's had higher usage, not the other way around, so hard to be too confident in him putting up JV-level efficiency.

                So basically we'd be trading one of our most valuable players (and a stockpile of picks and prospects) for a guy who we have no idea would fit here, and have no idea if he'd be seen as a star in this system with these teammates.

                Not a roll of the dice I'd be super excited about.
                We can't trade DD for him, I can't see why Sacramento would want to do that for starters, and secondly the fit with him and JV in the same frontcourt wouldn't be great. Yes we can't say exactly how valuable he'd be on lower usage, but the elite skillset is easy to see.

                And I'm not suggesting a low usage role, I'm suggesting him taking slightly lower usage that would allow him to maximize his efficiency and output (high 20s to 30%). JV is really not a comparable talent to Cousins at all in my opinion, and just from watching them there appears to be a world of difference in talent when it comes to ability to score in the post, shooting ability and range, defense and play-making for others.

                I don't really get this "Cousins has been more efficient when he's had higher usage point" either. I mean it's just plainly inaccurate unless we're going to say that he hasn't improved since his rookie season. His usage the past 3 years has gone up slightly from 32.7% to 34.1% to 35.4% while his TS% has decreased slightly from 55.5% to 54.5% to 53.8%. So I'm not sure where you're getting that trend. He appears to have made a significant production leap in his 4th season (that's when he really started talked about as being one of or the best centers in the league). Yes his TS% was lower in his first 3 seasons on lower usage but that probably has more to do with him not being as good and still having to handle the role of a superstar player. Seems kind of illogical to suggest that increasing someones usage would make them more efficient.

                I'm not really seeing the big risk. Worst case we're still one of the top teams in the east. In the type of deal being suggested we don't lose either of our top 2 players and acquire one of the top 15 players in the league. Best case we get good enough to actually beat the Cavaliers. At a certain point the ability to beat a team in the playoffs does come down to star power, as great as team basketball is, Atlanta had a pretty strong team at every position and still got creamed because they didn't have the guns to actually hang with LeBron and Kyrie. I know it's an abstract concept, but it's been the case in the NBA for as long as it's been around.

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                • Lupe wrote: View Post
                  We can't trade DD for him, I can't see why Sacramento would want to do that for starters, and secondly the fit with him and JV in the same frontcourt wouldn't be great. Yes we can't say exactly how valuable he'd be on lower usage, but the elite skillset is easy to see.

                  And I'm not suggesting a low usage role, I'm suggesting him taking slightly lower usage that would allow him to maximize his efficiency and output (high 20s to 30%). JV is really not a comparable talent to Cousins at all in my opinion, and just from watching them there appears to be a world of difference in talent when it comes to ability to score in the post, shooting ability and range, defense and play-making for others.

                  I don't really get this "Cousins has been more efficient when he's had higher usage point" either. I mean it's just plainly inaccurate unless we're going to say that he hasn't improved since his rookie season. His usage the past 3 years has gone up slightly from 32.7% to 34.1% to 35.4% while his TS% has decreased slightly from 55.5% to 54.5% to 53.8%. So I'm not sure where you're getting that trend. He appears to have made a significant production leap in his 4th season (that's when he really started talked about as being one of or the best centers in the league). Yes his TS% was lower in his first 3 seasons on lower usage but that probably has more to do with him not being as good and still having to handle the role of a superstar player. Seems kind of illogical to suggest that increasing someones usage would make them more efficient.

                  I'm not really seeing the big risk. Worst case we're still one of the top teams in the east. In the type of deal being suggested we don't lose either of our top 2 players and acquire one of the top 15 players in the league. Best case we get good enough to actually beat the Cavaliers. At a certain point the ability to beat a team in the playoffs does come down to star power, as great as team basketball is, Atlanta had a pretty strong team at every position and still got creamed because they didn't have the guns to actually hang with LeBron and Kyrie. I know it's an abstract concept, but it's been the case in the NBA for as long as it's been around.
                  Cousins' efficiency (TS%) in seasons where he posted USG rates between 27-29% (his first three seasons): 48.4%, 49.9%, 52.4%. Yes, he was younger then, but it's literally the only evidence we have. And some players have pretty flat usage impacts on their efficency - for the most part usage kills efficiency in a specific way: as a cliff. A player tends to have roughly the same efficiency regardless of usage until they hit their personal usage limit and it drops off suddenly. The point is not that a higher usage would increase efficiency - it's that a lower usage does not always increase efficiency.

                  Worst case we are still one of the top teams in the East? How is that the worst case? Worst case is the locker room falls apart, the fit is terrible (like when we last had three high usage guys in the starting lineup with Gay, DeRozan and Lowry and were on the verge of blowing it all up), the team starts losing, Lowry walks in the summer, and we are rebuilding all of a sudden except without picks because we traded several to the Kings to get Cousins, who is once again a malcontent what with the poor fit and many losses.

                  I'm not saying that it's likely, but let's be realistic, there are far worse cases than "still one of the top teams."
                  twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                  • Lupe wrote: View Post
                    He wouldn't be handling 35% usage on our team. You can't just point to how high his usage is and then just ignore that by saying JV blows him out of the water in efficiency. JV would have a TS% in the 40s if his usage was that high.
                    Ah, the old 'if you shoot more your TS% goes down' myth.

                    So then if you see a player shooting more (or less) than the previous year, you should see their TS% change accordingly. Let's check the data on that one, shall we, for all players in 2012 with >5 FGA/game?



                    How strange. No relationship. If anything, people had a slightly better TS% by taking more shots. And the relationship is statistically insignificant.

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                    • For example, if DeRozan had a lower usage role, and only shot catch and shoot threes from above the arc, would he have better efficiency than he does now? No, not remotely - his skill set is as a primary scorer and that's how he is best used. Do we want Cousins to lower his usage to allow DD to retain his, and focus his offensive contributions mainly on kickout jumpers and putback attempts? I wouldn't want that, but there's only so much ball to go around.
                      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                      • DanH wrote: View Post
                        For example, if DeRozan had a lower usage role, and only shot catch and shoot threes from above the arc, would he have better efficiency than he does now? No, not remotely - his skill set is as a primary scorer and that's how he is best used. Do we want Cousins to lower his usage to allow DD to retain his, and focus his offensive contributions mainly on kickout jumpers and putback attempts? I wouldn't want that, but there's only so much ball to go around.
                        Wait a second, but that's not what's being suggested? Why would Cousins' presence immediately relegate DeRozan to a catch and shoot role? Cousin's usage could be close to 30% while DeRozan's sits in the mid-20s and Lowry's in the low 20s (like it was in his best season here by most advanced metrics in 2013-14).

                        What you're suggesting seems to be an offense where Cousins just takes on the entire focal point and everyone else just stands around. We're not trying to be the 2001 Sixers, this just gives us more options to score and better options while taking pressure off DD and Lowry to be heroes in the playoffs (and suck at it, especially DeMar).

                        Like how is it that teams are able to have big 4s (Warriors right now, Celtics in 2008, etc) but it's insane to think that we could have 3 guys as key pillars on offense?

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                        • Lupe wrote: View Post
                          Wait a second, but that's not what's being suggested? Why would Cousins' presence immediately relegate DeRozan to a catch and shoot role? Cousin's usage could be close to 30% while DeRozan's sits in the mid-20s and Lowry's in the low 20s (like it was in his best season here by most advanced metrics in 2013-14).

                          What you're suggesting seems to be an offense where Cousins just takes on the entire focal point and everyone else just stands around. We're not trying to be the 2001 Sixers, this just gives us more options to score and better options while taking pressure off DD and Lowry to be heroes in the playoffs (and suck at it, especially DeMar).
                          I'm not saying DD would be a catch and shoot guy, he never would. Cousins, on many possessions, would be forced into the role.

                          Giving JV the ball would accomplish the same thing (taking pressure off DD and KL) and yet we haven't done that. The offence is designed to go through DD and Lowry before anyone else, and changing that dramatically to get Cousins high 20 to 30% usage rates would be a very risky move, messing with a top 5 offence (for the sake of a guy who helmed a league average offence). It's hard enough squeezing JV up to mid-20's usage to take a load off those two. Getting a big man near 30% usage would require a complete overhaul.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                          • DanH wrote: View Post
                            I'm not saying DD would be a catch and shoot guy, he never would. Cousins, on many possessions, would be forced into the role.

                            Giving JV the ball would accomplish the same thing (taking pressure off DD and KL) and yet we haven't done that. The offence is designed to go through DD and Lowry before anyone else, and changing that dramatically to get Cousins high 20 to 30% usage rates would be a very risky move, messing with a top 5 offence (for the sake of a guy who helmed a league average offence). It's hard enough squeezing JV up to mid-20's usage to take a load off those two. Getting a big man near 30% usage would require a complete overhaul.
                            I'll risk maybe getting marginally worse when it gives us a chance to be title contenders.

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                            • Kuh wrote: View Post
                              Ah, the old 'if you shoot more your TS% goes down' myth.

                              So then if you see a player shooting more (or less) than the previous year, you should see their TS% change accordingly. Let's check the data on that one, shall we, for all players in 2012 with >5 FGA/game?



                              How strange. No relationship. If anything, people had a slightly better TS% by taking more shots. And the relationship is statistically insignificant.
                              I'm not sure that's an adequate enough study to come to that conclusion.

                              So you're saying that you wouldn't expect JV's efficiency to drop significantly if he went from 21% usage to 35%? You do realize if he maintained anything near his current efficiency at Cousins' usage he would be effectively on par with Curry and Durant as an offensive weapon.

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                              • Lupe wrote: View Post
                                I'll risk maybe getting marginally worse when it gives us a chance to be title contenders.
                                That's where we differ in our evaluations. I think the risk is we get a LOT worse. And the upside is we get somewhat better, with a chance at being contenders, but no better a chance than if we were to target a big upgrade at PF instead at a lower cost.
                                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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