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  • DanH wrote: View Post
    Philly is in a corner because teams know they won't pay Noel because of their existing C situation. The Raptors would be in the same situation, the details would be different but the result is the same. There's no way the Raps would want to be paying both Noel and JV. And everyone knows it.
    Having two centers ahead of Noel is a big difference than having one ahead of him. Ultimately us retaining Noel wouldn't be all that different than if we'd paid Biyombo (had we had the opportunity to do so).
    It’s Ogugua season. Time to gugua.

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    • DanH wrote: View Post
      Any evidence for that? So far this year in a small (but not miniscule) sample, BeBe-Siakam have been a very effective pairing.
      So in this case it's ok to use a small sample size now? Didn't you just slate one of my earlier points for doing the same thing?



      Noel's offensive rebound percentage was 8.3% his rookie year. It was 8.2% last year. I'm confused by your comment here. Admirable is a strong word. That's the same rebounding rate Siakam has this year. He's fine. But there is no comparison between JV and Noel in offensive rebounding, at all.
      Fair enough.

      All those numbers were for catch and shoot shots from outside of 10 feet and inside the three point line.
      That's really strange given that JV is shooting less than 40% from outside 10 feet according to basketball reference, and I've rarely seen him take a pull-up jump-shot. And either way not really integral or necessary with our offense.

      This is a fair counterpoint. There still remains zero evidence that Noel can finish on the roll at the same volume and efficiency as JV, and as such act as a decoy for the defence to draw towards and free up our guards for shots. Siakam is used on the roll so infrequently his efficiency is pretty irrelevant. And yes, BeBe hits his dunks at a great rate - but again, you have to be careful comparing performance as a starting C against opposing starter quality players and performance as a backup C playing beside Lowry while he ravages opposing bench PG's.
      Bebe doesn't only play against benches and JV doesn't only play against starters. Impossible to gauge that without much more intricate player tracking statistics so I'll maintain my point here.



      You say he can perform in the role adequately, but your arbitrary A+ for A offence swap is based on what exactly? This is my problem - there is an assumption being made that Noel would help the defence more than he would hurt the offence, but the arguments for why that is are full of holes.
      Because right now we have a historic offense. Yes JV is a better offensive player than Noel, no question. But primarily JV's responsibility on the offensive end is as a pick and roll finisher and clean-up man. Yes he runs the occasional post up and takes the occasional mid-range jumper but put Noel with DeMar and Lowry and we're not going to lose a ton on the offensive end. There's a lot of evidence for us being able to play elite level offense without JV on the floor, namely the success of the Lowry+Bench lineups this year and last year with Biyombo.

      If we knew for a certainty that it would actually be a very small impact on the offence and would drastically improve the defence, obviously everyone would be for it. We do not remotely know that, and I have seen no reason to even suspect that it would be the case.
      Again. We're not trading JV for Noel. This is a trade of lesser assets if possible for Noel, an extremely high upside player particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Low risk, high reward trade. He doesn't have any kind of long-term contract, and if we need to keep him we absolutely can.



      If we acquire Noel at cost of assets, it is to keep him long term. If we acquire Noel, we are definitely trading JV (or throwing away assets on a rental). It is essentially a JV for Noel swap, there is as little chance of the two being on the same team long term as there was with Biz. If Noel would only play Biz's role, how much better could he even play it than BeBe has? BeBe's lineups have been among the most effective in the league, just like Biz's were.

      The front office is free right now to trade JV for an elite player. They would do so even without a backup plan at C, because you can survive on the young talent we have and can chase a player of Noel's market value after said big trade anyway. Why would they trade for a guy to play backup C and create the same logjam that exists in PHI that is driving his value through the floor right now? All you do if that happens is drive JV's trade value through the floor - you think teams trade a superstar for a JV package if the Raps are essentially being forced into trading him so they can afford matching Noel in the summer?

      Just a terrible strategy.
      Sure if he does well it's to keep him long-term, absolutely. Your second sentence is just a guess and a stretch. If no deal comes up for a star PF why can't we keep and play both JV and Noel and use them in situations that are best like we did with Biyombo/JV last year just on a longer term basis. It gives us versatility and more options at the center position.

      Not sure how on earth acquiring Noel would drop JV's value. Not sure what the reasoning behind that is. The Raptors wouldn't be being forced to trade Jonas, the same way if OKC decided to they wouldn't be being "forced" to trade Kanter or Adams (assuming they can pay them, which is the case for us).

      Comment


      • tDotted wrote: View Post
        Yeah I said the same thing a while ago. Honestly, this team doesn't even need to make a trade unless it's for Millsap. Quite a few people are really antsy for a trade though so I'm just suggesting the type of player that would benefit the team more. Don't see much point in going after redundant young guys.
        Agreed. Their first priority should be to find that 3rd star player. Noel will help on the defensive side and do things that JV or even Bebe can't do. He'll definitely help but he isn't a necessity.

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        • Scraptor wrote: View Post
          Having two centers ahead of Noel is a big difference than having one ahead of him. Ultimately us retaining Noel wouldn't be all that different than if we'd paid Biyombo (had we had the opportunity to do so).
          We had every opportunity to pay Biyombo and didn't for exactly the same reason we won't do it with Noel. There was a deal lined up to clear cap space to sign Gasol. That cap space could just as easily have gone to Biz. But it was never, ever going to.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • DanH wrote: View Post
            We had every opportunity to pay Biyombo and didn't for exactly the same reason we won't do it with Noel. There was a deal lined up to clear cap space to sign Gasol. That cap space could just as easily have gone to Biz. But it was never, ever going to.
            Not true. We didn't pay Biyombo because we would've had to offload a key player in order to free up the cap space to be able to sign him. We didn't have his bird rights (you know that obviously, just stating it), with Noel he would be an RFA and we could re-sign him without having to deal anyone else to make room. Not the same situation whatsoever.

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            • Lupe wrote: View Post
              So in this case it's ok to use a small sample size now? Didn't you just slate one of my earlier points for doing the same thing?
              I would never advocate for a move based on that small a sample. I'm advocating for the move based on the multiple years of data we have on Patterson starting, and to try some bench units that in a very small sample have seen success.

              That's really strange given that JV is shooting less than 40% from outside 10 feet according to basketball reference, and I've rarely seen him take a pull-up jump-shot. And either way not really integral or necessary with our offense.
              You can say it's not integral or necessary, but add up enough plays that represent two shots a game and you will see a significant change in the offence. In any case, it's not just how many he actually takes, it's the defence covering him wherever he is. We've seen it with Biz here, when a player is only a threat right at the rim, defences cover those players differently. The effect of a player without that skill set means a lot less room for our guards (integral and necessary as they are to the offence) to operate.

              Bebe doesn't only play against benches and JV doesn't only play against starters. Impossible to gauge that without much more intricate player tracking statistics so I'll maintain my point here.
              BeBe almost exclusively plays against opposing bench lineups. JV indeed sees a slightly more varied opposition, but plays basically all the minutes against opposing starting units.

              Because right now we have a historic offense. Yes JV is a better offensive player than Noel, no question. But primarily JV's responsibility on the offensive end is as a pick and roll finisher and clean-up man. Yes he runs the occasional post up and takes the occasional mid-range jumper but put Noel with DeMar and Lowry and we're not going to lose a ton on the offensive end. There's a lot of evidence for us being able to play elite level offense without JV on the floor, namely the success of the Lowry+Bench lineups this year and last year with Biyombo.
              You keep saying we're not going to lose a ton on the offensive end and bringing up how good they were with Biz. Notice how great they still are with BeBe? Yes, basically any C can look great going against bench units with an all world player like Lowry beating up on lesser opposition. The question is not whether Noel can look good in those scenarios - if that's all you want him for then what the heck are you trading BeBe for, who already looks fantastic in that role. It's whether he can succeed in a starting lineup and as a scouted key cog - something Biz showed he was quite incapable of doing when he got his chance to start or close games (the offence would die, particularly at the end of games, when teams would ignore him on offence). And like it or not, Biz is probably the closest comparable to Noel in the league right now, or even in recent memory.

              Again. We're not trading JV for Noel. This is a trade of lesser assets if possible for Noel, an extremely high upside player particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Low risk, high reward trade. He doesn't have any kind of long-term contract, and if we need to keep him we absolutely can.
              You can keep telling yourself that it's not a trade, but it has to be and would be a decision between the two. And it will be a hard one to even judge. We already know centres that don't stand a real chance at starting (like Biz and BeBe) can look fantastic with our star-bench lineups. So if Noel sits in that role, and looks good, do you sign him to a big deal and try to move JV from behind the 8 ball, taking the risk that Noel ends up just as problematic with the starters as his predecessors? Or do you let him walk, just like you did with Biz, and see your bench remain just as strong without him, just like with Biz. Or, do you make the deal and pray JV gets hurt so you get a chance to see Noel start? Do you yank JV from the starting lineup (something Casey has basically never done with any of his starters until he absolutely has to) to get a meaningful sample with Noel before the decision is made? Casey won't even try Patterson, the perfect Casey-ball PF, as the starting PF, why would they try Noel as the starting C?

              Sure if he does well it's to keep him long-term, absolutely. Your second sentence is just a guess and a stretch. If no deal comes up for a star PF why can't we keep and play both JV and Noel and use them in situations that are best like we did with Biyombo/JV last year just on a longer term basis. It gives us versatility and more options at the center position.

              Not sure how on earth acquiring Noel would drop JV's value. Not sure what the reasoning behind that is. The Raptors wouldn't be being forced to trade Jonas, the same way if OKC decided to they wouldn't be being "forced" to trade Kanter or Adams (assuming they can pay them, which is the case for us).
              The Raptors would be paying tax through the nose to keep both. That's a very different situation than OKC is in. And you may recall, OKC was in a situation very much like that a while ago, and that has something to do with why James Harden has not been on their team for some time in a backup SG role. And James Harden is significantly better than Nerlens Noel is.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • Lupe wrote: View Post
                Not true. We didn't pay Biyombo because we would've had to offload a key player in order to free up the cap space to be able to sign him. We didn't have his bird rights (you know that obviously, just stating it), with Noel he would be an RFA and we could re-sign him without having to deal anyone else to make room. Not the same situation whatsoever.
                I don't for a second believe Ross was viewed as a key player if they were willing to dump him to sign Gasol to a short term deal (and they were, based on the reports).

                I agree it is not the same situation for a few reasons. Not only the above, but to keep him they would have still ended up near the cap, not tens of millions of dollars into the tax. Very different situation.
                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                • DanH wrote: View Post
                  I don't for a second believe Ross was viewed as a key player if they were willing to dump him to sign Gasol to a short term deal (and they were, based on the reports).

                  I agree it is not the same situation for a few reasons. Not only the above, but to keep him they would have still ended up near the cap, not tens of millions of dollars into the tax. Very different situation.
                  I'm not sure how the Gasol situation is relevant. Of course if you have a chance to sign Marc Gasol, one of the best centers in the league, you dump a contract to do so, even if that's a pretty high minute role player like Ross. However for a backup center you probably don't make that same decision.

                  However this isn't the same as either. Noel wouldn't require us to trade anybody to re-sign.

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                  • Lupe wrote: View Post
                    I'm not sure how the Gasol situation is relevant. Of course if you have a chance to sign Marc Gasol, one of the best centers in the league, you dump a contract to do so, even if that's a pretty high minute role player like Ross. However for a backup center you probably don't make that same decision.

                    However this isn't the same as either. Noel wouldn't require us to trade anybody to re-sign.
                    Pau Gasol, dude. Where were you this summer?

                    Noel would require the team to go deep into the tax, possibly causing them to let Patterson walk. There's paying the tax and then there's paying tens of millions of dollars in tax for a backup C.
                    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                    • DanH wrote: View Post
                      You keep saying we're not going to lose a ton on the offensive end and bringing up how good they were with Biz. Notice how great they still are with BeBe? Yes, basically any C can look great going against bench units with an all world player like Lowry beating up on lesser opposition. The question is not whether Noel can look good in those scenarios - if that's all you want him for then what the heck are you trading BeBe for, who already looks fantastic in that role.
                      Bingo...

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                      • A.I wrote: View Post
                        Didn't realize 26 games is a "few" games. He is playing very consistently this season. He has finally matured and taken on that sixth man role. He is shooting 49% FG, 43% 3FG and 91% FT. Ross for Noel is a terrible trade.

                        Yes, 26 games in the span of 3-4 years is a small sample. If he is playing like that, it isa great time to trade him. We need to improve our weak points and we will not get QUALITY by trading away our GARBAGE.

                        Real world does not work like that.You have to give some asset where you have a surplus and get some asset where you need them most.

                        With Powell playing like that, we can afford letting Ross go to get some help at PF , rim protection and a mobile big man. Something we clearly lack.

                        Now, some of you want to dream about giving away Bebe and Bruno for Lebron, then be it.

                        At the end, MU is not going to make any move.

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                        • Sullinger's presence will change everything.

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                          • charlesnba23 wrote: View Post
                            Sullinger's presence will change everything.
                            Yes our perimeter defense will be even slower.

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                            • DanH wrote: View Post
                              I would never advocate for a move based on that small a sample. I'm advocating for the move based on the multiple years of data we have on Patterson starting, and to try some bench units that in a very small sample have seen success.
                              You're not understanding my point. I agree the starting lineup defense would improve. But the bench defense would be worse. You're not changing the amount of time 2Pat is on the court so the defense overall wouldn't change.



                              You can say it's not integral or necessary, but add up enough plays that represent two shots a game and you will see a significant change in the offence. In any case, it's not just how many he actually takes, it's the defence covering him wherever he is. We've seen it with Biz here, when a player is only a threat right at the rim, defences cover those players differently. The effect of a player without that skill set means a lot less room for our guards (integral and necessary as they are to the offence) to operate.
                              This isn't true. The defense doesn't guard him on those shots. He's shot zero shots from outside 10 feet that were very tightly contested (http://stats.nba.com/players/shots-c...mID=1610612761) and only 12 total in the entire season that were tightly contested.



                              BeBe almost exclusively plays against opposing bench lineups. JV indeed sees a slightly more varied opposition, but plays basically all the minutes against opposing starting units.
                              Any stats to confirm this?



                              You keep saying we're not going to lose a ton on the offensive end and bringing up how good they were with Biz. Notice how great they still are with BeBe? Yes, basically any C can look great going against bench units with an all world player like Lowry beating up on lesser opposition. The question is not whether Noel can look good in those scenarios - if that's all you want him for then what the heck are you trading BeBe for, who already looks fantastic in that role. It's whether he can succeed in a starting lineup and as a scouted key cog - something Biz showed he was quite incapable of doing when he got his chance to start or close games (the offence would die, particularly at the end of games, when teams would ignore him on offence). And like it or not, Biz is probably the closest comparable to Noel in the league right now, or even in recent memory.
                              Well as of right now that IS what we want him to do offensively. Since we're not talking about trading Jonas for him, he'd be a backup for now. I think he would be able to succeed against starters also, you don't but there's not really any concrete evidence to confirm either viewpoint.



                              You can keep telling yourself that it's not a trade, but it has to be and would be a decision between the two. And it will be a hard one to even judge. We already know centres that don't stand a real chance at starting (like Biz and BeBe) can look fantastic with our star-bench lineups. So if Noel sits in that role, and looks good, do you sign him to a big deal and try to move JV from behind the 8 ball, taking the risk that Noel ends up just as problematic with the starters as his predecessors? Or do you let him walk, just like you did with Biz, and see your bench remain just as strong without him, just like with Biz. Or, do you make the deal and pray JV gets hurt so you get a chance to see Noel start? Do you yank JV from the starting lineup (something Casey has basically never done with any of his starters until he absolutely has to) to get a meaningful sample with Noel before the decision is made? Casey won't even try Patterson, the perfect Casey-ball PF, as the starting PF, why would they try Noel as the starting C?
                              I'm not "telling [myself]" anything, you're the one who's telling yourself that acquiring Noel means that JV would have to be moved. We can play both of them. All it means is we then have the option of moving JV for an elite PF in a package should that opportunity arise without having to then start a backup center like Bebe. You're trying to put an ultimatum on something that doesn't have one. No need for it and the unnecessary defense of JV.



                              The Raptors would be paying tax through the nose to keep both. That's a very different situation than OKC is in. And you may recall, OKC was in a situation very much like that a while ago, and that has something to do with why James Harden has not been on their team for some time in a backup SG role. And James Harden is significantly better than Nerlens Noel is.
                              We're not a poor/cheap (in NBA relative terms of course) franchise like OKC is/was. We can afford to pay the luxury tax.

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                              • This whole starters don't play against bench players and bench players don't play against starters arguement is terrible.

                                Sent from my LG-H831 using Tapatalk
                                @Chr1st1anL

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