Everything Trade Chatter

[Lupe]

I'm wondering where some of you guys who are suggesting turning over 2/5 of the starting roster value continuity right now. Obviously I'm not advocating for never making a transaction again, but this team has made a very strong case for the value of keeping personnel (and their coach) together. Individual players are getting better every year and the team is getting better every year. For me, that's a significant factor in being lukewarm on anything that looks like a risk of a lateral move. This team is not at a stage to make a major transaction just to "try something and see if they get better." A major transaction needs to be a clear win for the franchise and a significant next-step move.

2/5 have already been overturned from last season. Carroll barely featured in the regular season.

And nobody's even talking about overturning 2/5 right now. We're talking about trading some of the assets we have to acquire a high upside player at the center position. Perhaps, like some have suggested, a subsequent trade of JV for an elite PF could be made. Not sure how that's a bad idea at all. The only guys getting uprooted are Bebe and Wright here we're not torpedoing the roster.

And it's not about trying something just for the sake of trying. This is a clear win to some of us. Some people don't rate Noel at all or don't want JV to have competition for his minutes. That's fine there's a difference of opinion on the impact he would have.

[lewro]

If we do the noel trade we're not sending jv to Philly. We have both guys to use in different looks. That will tell us if noel tanks the offense, which I doubt. You have to put his offensive numbers on Philly with a grain of salt bc he relies on his team to facilitate his offense. He was used beyond his capabilities bc his team was shit. Lowry will help this.
We still put up 112 on the road vs OKC with a ORtg of 120 when jv was injured. We gave up 102. Westbrook is an offensive machine.
I don't get the JV vs biz debate? We were better for having both guys, for completely different reasons/situations. We don't have to bash biz to say that jv is good. They were both good members of our team for different/useful reasons.
In certain matchups Id rather see jv in the 2nd unit to make him more of a focus on offense and not pair him with demar and siakam on defense. I missed the 1st quarter last night but I read that jv struggled to start, got an early hook and came back 2nd unit to dominate. Did that happen?

[Lupe]

Those obvious ways I referenced were not system changes. Just start Pat. Problem solved. Starting lineup DRTG drops 8-10 points overnight and the bench is still probably about as good.

Saying that Noel can do everything JV is asked to do is a little suspect. Noel crashing the glass is nothing like JV crashing the glass - Noel's career (and flat in both seasons) 8% OREB% pales in comparison to JV's recent 13%. His career high 22% DREB% is also not up to JV's 26%. You think this team is hurting on the boards now? Just you wait until you plug a mediocre rebounder at C in JV's elite rebounding place.

The team also asks JV to occasional midrange jumpers when the defence collapses on driving guards. He takes 2 catch and shoot midrange jumpers a game and makes them at a near-50% clip. Last season Noel was asked to do the same thing for the 76ers, he took 1.2 attempts per game, and made less than 30% of them.

The Raptors also ask JV to post up about 3 times a game, and he converts at about 1 PPP on those (75th percentile). They occasionally need to dump the ball into the post to get a reliable score when the wings need a possession off of driving to the hole. Noel last season posted up very rarely (just over once per game) and managed a truly abysmal 0.68 PPP (21st percentile).

JV operates as a real threat in the pick and roll, both as a scoring option and, due to that, a good decoy to free up space for the guards. He gets hit on the roll about twice a game, and converts at very efficient 1.2 PPP (80th percentile), and in the meantime racks up 4.2 screen assists per game. Last season, Noel got a chance to score on the roll about twice a game as well, but put up a very sub-par 0.9 PPP (34th percentile) in what is traditionally a very high efficiency play once you get the ball to the rolling big man. Sadly we have no screen assist data on Noel as he was not in the playoffs last year, and has played only 9 minutes this year.

So it seems like Noel CAN in fact do all the stuff JV is asked to do offensively - just nowhere near as well as JV can do any of it.

Let's not pretend this wouldn't cause a significant change to the way teams play us on the pick and roll. This would be a trade off of offence for defence, not the status quo or anywhere close to it on offence.

- Starting Pat doesn't change anything unless you're also talking about him playing 35-40mpg (he's at just under 30 right now). Just moving him around in the rotation would make the starters defense better yes, but then hurt the defense of the bench units that he was previously on.

- I talked strictly about the offensive glass and his rookie season OREB% isn't that different from JV's. Also didn't get a lot of time at center last season. I didn't say he was better than JV on the offensive glass, just that he could do an admirable job there.

- Yeah if you want to count shots from 3-10 feet (JV does next to nothing from outside that distance) that's cool but largely irrelevant. That's not spacing the floor and is only a play or two in the course of an entire game.

- The pick and roll argument isn't a good one at all. JV has the luxury of playing with two of the top 10 pick and roll ball handlers in the league. I can't even remember off-hand what Philly's guard rotation was last year. Simply just not comparable situations and thus not really a great point. It's not just JV that has a really high PPP on pick and rolls... ALL three of our non-shooting (so not including 2Pat) rotation bigs do. In fact Siakam and Noguiera have higher PPP as roll men than Valanciunas does. That is because of how good the guys initiating the action are at running the pick and roll. Noel didn't have access to that. He's big, long, athletic and has good hands he'd be very effective with our guys.

- So no Noel wouldn't be quite as good as JV offensively in the same role, but he can perform that role adequately and do well in it while being significantly better on the defensive end. I think we can afford to take a couple notches back from our historic offense while taking many steps forward on defense. It's not an offense for defense swap it's an A+ for A offense swap and C defense for B swap. I'll take that.

- And also for the record just acquiring Noel would not knock JV out of the rotation. He would likely still start and Noel would play Biyombo's role from last season. However it could free up the possibility depending on how the FO feels about Noel to move JV for an elite player in a package should the opportunity arise.

[Lupe]

Nobody is suggesting trading Valanciunas FOR Nerlens Noel. We're suggesting using some of our assets to acquire Noel to improve the team defensively. From there it would be a question of whether or not there is a subsequent trade that would allow us to move JV for a star player. If not he'd remain on the team and share minutes with Nerlens.

[lewro]

I'm wondering where some of you guys who are suggesting turning over 2/5 of the starting roster value continuity right now. Obviously I'm not advocating for never making a transaction again, but this team has made a very strong case for the value of keeping personnel (and their coach) together. Individual players are getting better every year and the team is getting better every year. For me, that's a significant factor in being lukewarm on anything that looks like a risk of a lateral move. This team is not at a stage to make a major transaction just to "try something and see if they get better." A major transaction needs to be a clear win for the franchise and a significant next-step move.

We are a very solid #2 seed. The talent gap is significant between us and the contenders. We are capped and our picks are low. Hard to upgrade talent outside of trade. We've looked for a pf for two years and millsap is still in ATL. We'd still have assets to make that kind of move and the potential for jv/noel to become a chip bumps our trade outlook up a notch, assuming we can buy low on noel and resign him. There is a risk that noel doesn't fit or is shit. Some have different speculation on this but neither side knows the truth unless it happens.
We should also consider league trends and how jv and noel compare there. Matchups should dictate use imo.

[Lupe]

The matchups thing is a good point. Noel is also someone who could potentially help neutralize Kevin Love or Frye when Cleveland goes to those LeBron at the 4 lineups that have toasted us in the past. The other solution would be 2Pat at the 5 there, but then you don't have any rim protection against two of the best slashing players in the league.

[lewro]

Lupe, noel only has good hands on lobs. His TOs are bad bc he was asked to handle the ball bc Philly was shit.
The comp isn't noel vs jv - yet. It's noel vs bebe. There's an argument there bc bebe has been good but noel is potentially better. Whether he is $18m better next yr is a stretch. But, what is bebe worth in 2018. His sample is too small ATM. At his production he might get $15m imo. Not sure noel gets $20m the way things look ATM either. $15m is probably the floor.

[Chr1s1anL]

Wright/Bebe for Noel is laughable, Philly could get 28 more offers as good as that or better. I like Bebe too, but he's played a quarter of a season as a backup now and Wright has done even less than that.

I think Toronto's defense can get back to about #10 with the current roster if the perimeter players double down on moving their feet and keeping their man in front, just like they did in Q2 and Q3 last night, turning a double-digit deficit into a blowout win by actually playing defence on the perimeter. They've developed bad + lazy habits because they've been thinking they can outscore teams. They need to put in the work.

No way this D gets to top 10. If they couldn't get the there last year. They wont this year. Middle of the pack is the best this team can do IMO.

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[lewro]

The matchups thing is a good point. Noel is also someone who could potentially help neutralize Kevin Love or Frye when Cleveland goes to those LeBron at the 4 lineups that have toasted us in the past. The other solution would be 2Pat at the 5 there, but then you don't have any rim protection against two of the best slashing players in the league.

Rebounding is also a problem with pat at the 5. Offrebs are gravy imo. Jvs not converting them well either. Controlling DRebs is a must. Bebe and Pat struggle there but bebe has some promise. Carroll is awful!
Sully will help and sully/noel helps with spacing. We can't compete with lebron but hopefully we can matchup with the guys around him. Noel vs Frye/love/horford is an upgrade over bebe/siakam imo. Some here might say no but I doubt the league would.

[lewro]

From philly writer, Bob Cooney, this morning (same guy quoted here earlier):

"There's an old bar joke that says if someone doesn't meet your standards, lower them. That line can be applied to Colangelo now when it involves trading Noel - if an offer doesn't meet your standards, lower them. That is what it appears to have come to."

The rumour in the summer was Ross. In the fall cojo. In the winter, perhaps it's delon?

https://www.google.ca/amp/www.philly...roid-rogers-ca

[DanH]

- Starting Pat doesn't change anything unless you're also talking about him playing 35-40mpg (he's at just under 30 right now). Just moving him around in the rotation would make the starters defense better yes, but then hurt the defense of the bench units that he was previously on.

Any evidence for that? So far this year in a small (but not miniscule) sample, BeBe-Siakam have been a very effective pairing.

- I talked strictly about the offensive glass and his rookie season OREB% isn't that different from JV's. Also didn't get a lot of time at center last season. I didn't say he was better than JV on the offensive glass, just that he could do an admirable job there.

Noel's offensive rebound percentage was 8.3% his rookie year. It was 8.2% last year. I'm confused by your comment here. Admirable is a strong word. That's the same rebounding rate Siakam has this year. He's fine. But there is no comparison between JV and Noel in offensive rebounding, at all.

- Yeah if you want to count shots from 3-10 feet (JV does next to nothing from outside that distance) that's cool but largely irrelevant. That's not spacing the floor and is only a play or two in the course of an entire game.

All those numbers were for catch and shoot shots from outside of 10 feet and inside the three point line.

- The pick and roll argument isn't a good one at all. JV has the luxury of playing with two of the top 10 pick and roll ball handlers in the league. I can't even remember off-hand what Philly's guard rotation was last year. Simply just not comparable situations and thus not really a great point. It's not just JV that has a really high PPP on pick and rolls... ALL three of our non-shooting (so not including 2Pat) rotation bigs do. In fact Siakam and Noguiera have higher PPP as roll men than Valanciunas does. That is because of how good the guys initiating the action are at running the pick and roll. Noel didn't have access to that. He's big, long, athletic and has good hands he'd be very effective with our guys.

This is a fair counterpoint. There still remains zero evidence that Noel can finish on the roll at the same volume and efficiency as JV, and as such act as a decoy for the defence to draw towards and free up our guards for shots. Siakam is used on the roll so infrequently his efficiency is pretty irrelevant. And yes, BeBe hits his dunks at a great rate - but again, you have to be careful comparing performance as a starting C against opposing starter quality players and performance as a backup C playing beside Lowry while he ravages opposing bench PG's.

- So no Noel wouldn't be quite as good as JV offensively in the same role, but he can perform that role adequately and do well in it while being significantly better on the defensive end. I think we can afford to take a couple notches back from our historic offense while taking many steps forward on defense. It's not an offense for defense swap it's an A+ for A offense swap and C defense for B swap. I'll take that.

You say he can perform in the role adequately, but your arbitrary A+ for A offence swap is based on what exactly? This is my problem - there is an assumption being made that Noel would help the defence more than he would hurt the offence, but the arguments for why that is are full of holes.

If we knew for a certainty that it would actually be a very small impact on the offence and would drastically improve the defence, obviously everyone would be for it. We do not remotely know that, and I have seen no reason to even suspect that it would be the case.

- And also for the record just acquiring Noel would not knock JV out of the rotation. He would likely still start and Noel would play Biyombo's role from last season. However it could free up the possibility depending on how the FO feels about Noel to move JV for an elite player in a package should the opportunity arise.

If we acquire Noel at cost of assets, it is to keep him long term. If we acquire Noel, we are definitely trading JV (or throwing away assets on a rental). It is essentially a JV for Noel swap, there is as little chance of the two being on the same team long term as there was with Biz. If Noel would only play Biz's role, how much better could he even play it than BeBe has? BeBe's lineups have been among the most effective in the league, just like Biz's were.

The front office is free right now to trade JV for an elite player. They would do so even without a backup plan at C, because you can survive on the young talent we have and can chase a player of Noel's market value after said big trade anyway. Why would they trade for a guy to play backup C and create the same logjam that exists in PHI that is driving his value through the floor right now? All you do if that happens is drive JV's trade value through the floor - you think teams trade a superstar for a JV package if the Raps are essentially being forced into trading him so they can afford matching Noel in the summer?

Just a terrible strategy.

[S.R.]

If we do the noel trade we're not sending jv to Philly. We have both guys to use in different looks. That will tell us if noel tanks the offense, which I doubt. You have to put his offensive numbers on Philly with a grain of salt bc he relies on his team to facilitate his offense. He was used beyond his capabilities bc his team was shit. Lowry will help this.
We still put up 112 on the road vs OKC with a ORtg of 120 when jv was injured. We gave up 102. Westbrook is an offensive machine.
I don't get the JV vs biz debate? We were better for having both guys, for completely different reasons/situations. We don't have to bash biz to say that jv is good. They were both good members of our team for different/useful reasons.
In certain matchups Id rather see jv in the 2nd unit to make him more of a focus on offense and not pair him with demar and siakam on defense. I missed the 1st quarter last night but I read that jv struggled to start, got an early hook and came back 2nd unit to dominate. Did that happen?

According to Casey, via Doug Smith, JV got the hook early in the 1st because they wanted him out there vs. Vucevic. Strategy worked very well, too.

[S.R.]

No way this D gets to top 10. If they couldn't get the there last year. They wont this year. Middle of the pack is the best this team can do IMO.

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It's definitely optimistic, so would any preseasons predictions about this team having the #1 ORTG in the NBA at this point or DeMar being the third highest scorer in the league (still without a 3 point shot) have been if anybody had had the onions to throw out projections like that back in September.

Let's say I'm feeling a bit optimistic about keeping the band together this season.

[lewro]

Dan, you omitted an 18min lineup from your article on defensive lineups back in November on raps hq on the basis that it is too small a sample. Siakam and bebe have played 20mins. I guess I missed something historic in the 2 mins I was taking a shit that day?

Noel is an 8℅ better dreb than siakam and avg 3 more total rebs/36. Go onto another teams board and try to argue that siakam or bebe are better than noel. You think people would agree?

Paying jv 14-15m to come off the bench in certain matchups is market value for a backup. Paying noel 18-20m to start certain matchups is market value. Jv+noel+yak is likely 33- 38m. Lowry+ cojo + fvv is likely 33-38m. Norm + DD+ Ross is 38m (there's positional versatility here but all 3 are really sgs). The contenders are shelling out this money. It's the price of admission to the dance.

Jonas is 48% career fg℅ inside 3ft and 35℅ from 3-10ft. Noel is 50℅ and 29℅. We don't want either guy shooting from distance and noel should improve. Noel increased from 46℅ from inside 3 ft to 55℅ from yr 1 to 2. Playing with shit guards to set him up.

We don't have to trade jv. We could trade noel too. Trading is time sensitive and opportunistic. We've waited 2 yrs for this big deal and nothing has come and nothing on the horizon. Noel has a lot more trade value than bebe or delon or both combined. A lot!

Jv has a great TS℅. We can't just look at that and think it trumps everything other facet of the game and the trend of league or the rosters of our direct rivals. Jv is a good weapon but we need more, particularly ones that can help contain the significant weapons of our competition. Our offense is fine and a reduction can be debated but there's no reason to think it implodes. We'd be trading a bench warmer and a limited offensive player for another guy at the same position with the same limits.

The deal likely doesn't get done and there are plenty of debatable aspects. Writing it off is just obtuse and bias. Many people around the league are talking about it. Most say no but at least consider it.

This fixation of jv vs noel is baseless ATM. We'd have both players.

[lewro]

According to Casey, via Doug Smith, JV got the hook early in the 1st because they wanted him out there vs. Vucevic. Strategy worked very well, too.

Thx. That makes sense.