Everything Trade Chatter

[jimmie]

Any evidence for that? So far this year in a small (but not miniscule) sample, BeBe-Siakam have been a very effective pairing.



Noel's offensive rebound percentage was 8.3% his rookie year. It was 8.2% last year. I'm confused by your comment here. Admirable is a strong word. That's the same rebounding rate Siakam has this year. He's fine. But there is no comparison between JV and Noel in offensive rebounding, at all.



All those numbers were for catch and shoot shots from outside of 10 feet and inside the three point line.



This is a fair counterpoint. There still remains zero evidence that Noel can finish on the roll at the same volume and efficiency as JV, and as such act as a decoy for the defence to draw towards and free up our guards for shots. Siakam is used on the roll so infrequently his efficiency is pretty irrelevant. And yes, BeBe hits his dunks at a great rate - but again, you have to be careful comparing performance as a starting C against opposing starter quality players and performance as a backup C playing beside Lowry while he ravages opposing bench PG's.



You say he can perform in the role adequately, but your arbitrary A+ for A offence swap is based on what exactly? This is my problem - there is an assumption being made that Noel would help the defence more than he would hurt the offence, but the arguments for why that is are full of holes.

If we knew for a certainty that it would actually be a very small impact on the offence and would drastically improve the defence, obviously everyone would be for it. We do not remotely know that, and I have seen no reason to even suspect that it would be the case.



If we acquire Noel at cost of assets, it is to keep him long term. If we acquire Noel, we are definitely trading JV (or throwing away assets on a rental). It is essentially a JV for Noel swap, there is as little chance of the two being on the same team long term as there was with Biz. If Noel would only play Biz's role, how much better could he even play it than BeBe has? BeBe's lineups have been among the most effective in the league, just like Biz's were.

The front office is free right now to trade JV for an elite player. They would do so even without a backup plan at C, because you can survive on the young talent we have and can chase a player of Noel's market value after said big trade anyway. Why would they trade for a guy to play backup C and create the same logjam that exists in PHI that is driving his value through the floor right now? All you do if that happens is drive JV's trade value through the floor - you think teams trade a superstar for a JV package if the Raps are essentially being forced into trading him so they can afford matching Noel in the summer?

Just a terrible strategy.

Anyone awaiting or seeking evidence that a trade is 100% going to benefit the team receiving the player before entertaining the trade is never going to make a trade.

[DanH]

Dan, you omitted an 18min lineup from your article on defensive lineups back in November on raps hq on the basis that it is too small a sample. Siakam and bebe have played 20mins. I guess I missed something historic in the 2 mins I was taking a shit that day?

You probably missed that Siakam and BeBe have played 47 minutes. And I noted it was a small sample, but also, since the returns are good and the only reason you wouldn't start Pat (when there is a large sample of him having tremendous success in that lineup - currently the best lineup in the league in terms of results) is if you are worried about Siakam and BeBe, there's enough there to at least try it out for 10 games or so before Sully comes back so you know what your options are.

Noel is an 8℅ better dreb than siakam and avg 3 more total rebs/36. Go onto another teams board and try to argue that siakam or bebe are better than noel. You think people would agree?

I doubt they would. Of course, it's not as simple as who is better, but the cost associated with the options. Noel would have to be a LOT better than those two, and he's not, really.

Paying jv 14-15m to come off the bench in certain matchups is market value for a backup. Paying noel 18-20m to start certain matchups is market value. Jv+noel+yak is likely 33- 38m. Lowry+ cojo + fvv is likely 33-38m. Norm + DD+ Ross is 38m (there's positional versatility here but all 3 are really sgs). The contenders are shelling out this money. It's the price of admission to the dance.

35M per position means 175M team salary. No one is spending that, not even the Cavs. It's hardly market value. No team is paying to go deep into the tax to downgrade at starting C from JV to Noel.

Jonas is 48% career fg℅ inside 3ft and 35℅ from 3-10ft. Noel is 50℅ and 29℅. We don't want either guy shooting from distance and noel should improve. Noel increased from 46℅ from inside 3 ft to 55℅ from yr 1 to 2. Playing with shit guards to set him up.

It's quite evident we do want JV shooting outside 10 feet, considering he takes two a game and hits half of them. I agree no one would want Noel taking those shots.

We don't have to trade jv. We could trade noel too. Trading is time sensitive and opportunistic. We've waited 2 yrs for this big deal and nothing has come and nothing on the horizon. Noel has a lot more trade value than bebe or delon or both combined. A lot!

Then why would he be traded for them? Seems likely to me he does not in fact have that trade value, and never will.

Jv has a great TS℅. We can't just look at that and think it trumps everything other facet of the game and the trend of league or the rosters of our direct rivals. Jv is a good weapon but we need more, particularly ones that can help contain the significant weapons of our competition. Our offense is fine and a reduction can be debated but there's no reason to think it implodes. We'd be trading a bench warmer and a limited offensive player for another guy at the same position with the same limits.

The deal likely doesn't get done and there are plenty of debatable aspects. Writing it off is just obtuse and bias. Many people around the league are talking about it. Most say no but at least consider it.

This fixation of jv vs noel is baseless ATM. We'd have both players.

We'd have both players for a few months, then we'd be making a choice. There's no way the team pays both of them when neither are remotely capable of playing PF (and no, Noel is not, just like Biz wasn't).

I have considered it. Just because I consider it before starting to write a response does not mean I don't consider it. I've actually thought it through pretty thoroughly.

[DanH]

Anyone awaiting or seeking evidence that a trade is 100% going to benefit the team receiving the player before entertaining the trade is never going to make a trade.

I never requested that at all. It was being suggested by others that it was a sure thing to improve the defence and not hurt the offence much, and I was saying that it does not seem likely to be the case. Obviously I don't need 100% certainty, but I need a heck of a lot more reason to believe that story than what I've been provided.

[Lupe]

I never requested that at all. It was being suggested by others that it was a sure thing to improve the defence and not hurt the offence much, and I was saying that it does not seem likely to be the case. Obviously I don't need 100% certainty, but I need a heck of a lot more reason to believe that story than what I've been provided.

Who has said it's a sure thing? It's what we think it will do. None of us have time machines to go in the future and see if it will actually work. But I think based on Noel's tools and ability it will benefit us significantly defensively. He was a higher rated prospect defensively than even Anthony Davis, the questions around him had more to do with offensive ability beyond dunking and being a roll man and his health. Potentially massive impact player on the defensive end though.

Is that guaranteed? No. But nobody is advocating trading away key players for him. We're talking about using some of our lesser assets to take on a guy that could potentially be a huge boost to the team. Because guess what, JV is not going to be able to be on the floor when the Cavs go to Love or Frye at the 5. Having someone who can handle those situations and allow 2Pat to stay at the 4 where he can switch with DeMarre on LeBron and allow us to still have rim protection inside for LBJ/Kyrie drives would be massive.

Noel's also been compared very favourably to Tyson Chandler, who Casey and Carlisle used as the backbone of one of (actually probably the only one) the only defenses that has ever stopped prime LeBron in the playoffs.

[jimmie]

I never requested that at all. It was being suggested by others that it was a sure thing to improve the defence and not hurt the offence much, and I was saying that it does not seem likely to be the case. Obviously I don't need 100% certainty, but I need a heck of a lot more reason to believe that story than what I've been provided.

I don't think it was suggested as a sure thing by anyone; I mean, I read the same posts and I didn't get that impression. Maybe presumptuous of me, but it seems that you're the type of guy that needs hard, causal data that a change is going to be a positive one before you would entertain changing the status quo. All I'm saying is that's unrealistic and not how GM'ing a professional sports franchise works. It's all taking chances, using educated guesses + available data + experience + human psychology +...

The data you have available on Noel is not enough to make a certain or close to certain determination of whether it would be a good move, great move, or crappy move in either the short or long run. If the data is the only thing you consider, it naturally puts you in a risk-averse position on this issue.

There's nothing wrong with that, but to it's not any closer to or further from the 'right answer' vs. most of the other well-thought-out ideas presented. Analysis based solely on numbers is no better/worse than analysis based solely on the eye test/years of watching both successful and unsuccessful franchises develop.

Personally, if it only meant giving up Delon Wright and/or Bebe to test Noel as a backup 5 on this team for the next 4+ months, I'd do that in a second. There is literally NO risk there outside of Noel somehow undoing 4 years of chemistry-building, and if a backup 5 can do that to this team, then they really didn't have much chemistry to begin with.

[DanH]

Who has said it's a sure thing? It's what we think it will do. None of us have time machines to go in the future and see if it will actually work. But I think based on Noel's tools and ability it will benefit us significantly defensively. He was a higher rated prospect defensively than even Anthony Davis, the questions around him had more to do with offensive ability beyond dunking and being a roll man and his health. Potentially massive impact player on the defensive end though.

Is that guaranteed? No. But nobody is advocating trading away key players for him. We're talking about using some of our lesser assets to take on a guy that could potentially be a huge boost to the team. Because guess what, JV is not going to be able to be on the floor when the Cavs go to Love or Frye at the 5. Having someone who can handle those situations and allow 2Pat to stay at the 4 where he can switch with DeMarre on LeBron and allow us to still have rim protection inside for LBJ/Kyrie drives would be massive.

Noel's also been compared very favourably to Tyson Chandler, who Casey and Carlisle used as the backbone of one of (actually probably the only one) the only defenses that has ever stopped prime LeBron in the playoffs.

Yeah, and that's all great, except that defence that you are talking about that stopped LBJ in the playoffs? Casey is on record as saying that LeBron is so much better now than he was then that he doesn't think that sort of defence would stop him anymore.

I understand the stylistic choices you are describing here. I am arguing that we don't have any reason to believe Noel could come anywhere close to replicating what JV does offensively, and that as such it is not remotely safe to assume that it would be a step back from "A+ to A" on offence. If we are going to trade for Noel, we should be approaching it with the understanding that it presents a very real risk to the offence, and is not guaranteed to improve the defence enough to balance that out, let alone have a significant net positive impact.

If you are talking about taking him on as a rental, I have no interest in that, not at cost of assets. I don't think he changes the ceiling of the team, and unless you are making a permanent change to the roster to keep him around, I don't think it is worth giving up assets for him, or risking the current success of the team (assuming he would be a bench player, you really could not expect him to outperform BeBe).

[DanH]

I don't think it was suggested as a sure thing by anyone; I mean, I read the same posts and I didn't get that impression. Maybe presumptuous of me, but it seems that you're the type of guy that needs hard, causal data that a change is going to be a positive one before you would entertain changing the status quo. All I'm saying is that's unrealistic and not how GM'ing a professional sports franchise works. It's all taking chances, using educated guesses + available data + experience + human psychology +...

I advocated for starting PP after one week of Scola being terrible (frankly, before then, with no empirical evidence whatsoever). I'm fine with taking chances if they make sense in terms of style, fit, and talent level. I don't think what essentially boils down to a JV for Noel swap (because both is not an option long term) fits those criteria.

[Lupe]

Yeah, and that's all great, except that defence that you are talking about that stopped LBJ in the playoffs? Casey is on record as saying that LeBron is so much better now than he was then that he doesn't think that sort of defence would stop him anymore.

I understand the stylistic choices you are describing here. I am arguing that we don't have any reason to believe Noel could come anywhere close to replicating what JV does offensively, and that as such it is not remotely safe to assume that it would be a step back from "A+ to A" on offence. If we are going to trade for Noel, we should be approaching it with the understanding that it presents a very real risk to the offence, and is not guaranteed to improve the defence enough to balance that out, let alone have a significant net positive impact.

If you are talking about taking him on as a rental, I have no interest in that, not at cost of assets. I don't think he changes the ceiling of the team, and unless you are making a permanent change to the roster to keep him around, I don't think it is worth giving up assets for him, or risking the current success of the team (assuming he would be a bench player, you really could not expect him to outperform BeBe).

The things you're saying aren't facts either, I just want to point that out. You haven't come close to proving that this move won't be a plus. And considering that nobody's advocating selling the farm for him I'm not really seeing what the big issue is. It seems to be that the concern is more about JV potentially being beaten out for a starting spot.

[lewro]

- I see 20 mins in a 5 man rotation on bbref.

- i am projecting salary cap into the new nba. curry is getting 12m with other players like kd having options and iggy off the books. the following yr the cavs will have to reup lebron a ton. 150m+ is probably the range. we have $15m tied into carroll with norm on the bench. that's the albatross.

-jv this year is shooting 1.7 attempts on catch and shoot at 48% from 10ft. is that the stat you are referencing? im looking at career 35% from 3-10ft. 1.7 demonstrates that it's not a feature of the offense. it's a bail out, minor option. how many lobs are we attempting per game?

-delon and bebe is below market value bc his value is tanked. he's #10 overall FA on hoopshype, #1 of centers. resigned, playing basketball he is worth a lot more. you'd have a lot easier time getting a lottery pick out him than jv signed to a better contract bc no one wants to build a franchise around a plodder in the modern nba. it's only getting worse with age and influx of new talent.

-he's alot more capable of playing pf than biz but hes not the solution that we need either. he's also the same age as siakam. he can defend that position very well and work in some lineups just as well as siakam. we're not gonna destroy the team.

-lets trade one when the time comes. build a package around either guy and capture more of a market than only offering the limits and strengths of either. you're gonna get a better return and sacrifice less on the roster than building a trade around ross and attaching more salary like cojo. the real albatross contract is carroll. this is part of the reason i am arguing to include roco in the deal. the other mistake was drafting delon and signing cojo. we can afford to move one. the tax shouldnt be the main deterrent. we can get out of it and avoid the repeater. even if it is a dump then we can get something at a position of need rather than delon sitting on the bench. i told you fvv was capable to be pg3 and now you agree. i told you norm shouldnt be in the dleague. now you agree. imo, watching our guys play with bebe, tells me that noel would be an upgrade and improve the team. jv might prove more useful in the 2nd unit, in many matchups.
we improve the team in the short term imo and we have a better trade outlook long term imo. trade is the only way to add talent at this point. tax should be a minor concern until we are actually in tax hell and then trade out. worse case we get the equivalent value of bebe/delon, unless its carroll but that mistake is already on the books. any trade is a risk. even millsap, as hand in glove as it seems. not that its an option anyway or that we would have the highest bid.

-if you have considered it then the basis of your argument is that jv is the better center and fit on this team. you dont know that, neither do i. i think the fact that a dleague guy can come in play so well immediately suggests that this type of play fits our system. noel imo is an upgrade on bebe and a proven starting center. this is reasonable ground to suggest that he might improve our team. it's unreasonable to assume that is not possible. in fact, it's unknowable.

[S.R.]

As a pure hypothetical, let's say through a couple of transactions JV+Bebe+Delon+a couple future firsts eventually becomes Noel+Millsap. Anyone say no to that? Does that justify the cost?

You'd have to hope they both re-sign here.

[JawsGT]

As a pure hypothetical, let's say through a couple of transactions JV+Bebe+Delon+a couple future firsts eventually becomes Noel+Millsap. Anyone say no to that? Does that justify the cost?

You'd have to hope they both re-sign here.

I was thinking something along those lines too. But ATL wouldn't want JV I imagine with Howard on the roster. But yeah, if there was a third team in there that would want JV maybe it can happen.

Nonetheless, I still have faith in JV and would prefer at the moment to not move him. Millsap would look good next to him too and probably could be had without moving JV, if Millsap indeed is/will be available.

But I also understand the desire to get a more mobile defensive C and use JV as the trade chip for the PF upgrade.

[lewro]

Yeah, and that's all great, except that defence that you are talking about that stopped LBJ in the playoffs? Casey is on record as saying that LeBron is so much better now than he was then that he doesn't think that sort of defence would stop him anymore.

I understand the stylistic choices you are describing here. I am arguing that we don't have any reason to believe Noel could come anywhere close to replicating what JV does offensively, and that as such it is not remotely safe to assume that it would be a step back from "A+ to A" on offence. If we are going to trade for Noel, we should be approaching it with the understanding that it presents a very real risk to the offence, and is not guaranteed to improve the defence enough to balance that out, let alone have a significant net positive impact.

If you are talking about taking him on as a rental, I have no interest in that, not at cost of assets. I don't think he changes the ceiling of the team, and unless you are making a permanent change to the roster to keep him around, I don't think it is worth giving up assets for him, or risking the current success of the team (assuming he would be a bench player, you really could not expect him to outperform BeBe).

We have strong offensive production from Bebe with our team as evidence. Noel is a better version of Bebe. If your argument is that Bebe doesn't play vs good competition (flawed argument) than we have evidence of Noel playing in our division as starter. Yes, he's not as efficient but he's played with shit players and asked to create his own offence. How do you think Bebe would look in that situation? Worse than noel imo. bebe at 20 yrs old? no chance.

the offence imploding is just as flawed as your screen assist argument. i dont see you quote that narrative anymore?
if your solution is start pat and give jv more touches to improve this team then that might be an improvement but we're facing the best competition in the world. we need talent. noel is far from the ideal scenario but after two yrs of looking we are capped and no one is available. try to gain a little by buying low on the best player available and see how the market turns out. we'd be in a better position to deal. things arent as simple as millsap falls into our lap or asking our team to "try harder".
imo it's really more a matter of whether philly would accept the deal and that likely means finding a 3rd team for bebe. of course, i 100% could be wrong and i'm not trying to deal in absolutes - my heads not that big!

[lewro]

I don't think it was suggested as a sure thing by anyone; I mean, I read the same posts and I didn't get that impression. Maybe presumptuous of me, but it seems that you're the type of guy that needs hard, causal data that a change is going to be a positive one before you would entertain changing the status quo. All I'm saying is that's unrealistic and not how GM'ing a professional sports franchise works. It's all taking chances, using educated guesses + available data + experience + human psychology +...

The data you have available on Noel is not enough to make a certain or close to certain determination of whether it would be a good move, great move, or crappy move in either the short or long run. If the data is the only thing you consider, it naturally puts you in a risk-averse position on this issue.

There's nothing wrong with that, but to it's not any closer to or further from the 'right answer' vs. most of the other well-thought-out ideas presented. Analysis based solely on numbers is no better/worse than analysis based solely on the eye test/years of watching both successful and unsuccessful franchises develop.

Personally, if it only meant giving up Delon Wright and/or Bebe to test Noel as a backup 5 on this team for the next 4+ months, I'd do that in a second. There is literally NO risk there outside of Noel somehow undoing 4 years of chemistry-building, and if a backup 5 can do that to this team, then they really didn't have much chemistry to begin with.

yeah, you have to look at the stats and watch the games. that's why scouts actually go to games and dont just sit on bbref all day and spit knowledge.

for example, how does deandre jordan look on offence if tj mcconnell is throwing him lobs as a 20 yr old? deandre's stats arent even as good at that age anyway. neither are jvs for that matter, in terms of bpa and vorp. both guys didnt play with garbage teams. it's not hard for me to imagine kyle throwing lobs to noel or noel guarding horford in space so he doesnt have to get benched and make pat do everything on defense for our team.

god, i'm listening to will lou on the podcast right now talking about jvs defence and i feel like im talking about a different team in this forum.

[Chr1s1anL]

Dont know if this has been added already

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/n...ns-noel-121916

[via Basketball Insiders]

There are a couple of teams to watch on the Noel front, the biggest being the Toronto Raptors. It is unlikely that the Raptors mess with their team chemistry in moving a core player, but if the 76ers want some of the Raptors’ young players or non-core parts, Toronto would have interest in Noel, according to sources close to the situation. It’s also believed the Portland Trail Blazers have eyes on Noel, but they may be unwilling to give up much in a deal.

Link for the Steve Kyler article
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nb...r-we-expected/


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[KHD]

ITT: noel is basketball jesus, anyone who disagrees is obviously just looking at stats and doesn't watch games.

good lord.

there's a reason nobody is trading for noel. he's an oft-injured, extremely limited player, who's in line for a big raise, and has a massive ego.